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Ah yes, history has shown that this is a good idea. I'm sure it'll end well this time. germany-cool

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[-] MelianPretext@lemmygrad.ml 10 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

I think this is a far sunnier depiction of Europe than the material reality and historical record allows to be tenably held. It's worth going back to interrogate the sheer history of the notion. The idea of a scenario of inter-imperialist rivalry within the West posed by a resurgent Europe against America, to the benefit of the Global South, traces back all the way back to the immediate post-war period. Stalin himself speculated that:

The question is, what guarantee is there that Germany and Japan will not again rise to their feet, that they will not try to wrest themselves from American bondage and to live their own independent lives? I think there are no such guarantees. But it follows from this that the inevitability of wars among the capitalist countries remains.

Stalin was wrong because World War II turned out to remain the last inter-imperialist war within the West up to today.

Europe's fundamental problem is that it has never been held accountable for the original sin of 500 years of colonialism and imperialism. Rather than facing any retribution, it has been rewarded. The continent has managed to retain the material wealth gained through its imperial past, and even now, it continues to benefit from neo-colonial economic structures that give subsidy to its luxury through the continued unequal exchange with the rest of the world.

On the other hand, the only thing it really ever has been punished for is the cautionary lesson of inter-imperialist infighting when Europe turned its guns against itself. The lesson Europe took from the 20th century, and continues to hold today, is this: karma hasn't ever punished its external violence, but it strikes if it turns on itself. Europe was the victor of history—until the victors began fighting among themselves.

This is the etiological source of its cultural and racial alignment with Western hegemony. It's a self-perpetuating cyclical logic that was only broken through the alternative presented through socialist internationalism that provided a different narrative of Europe that allowed coexistence and solidarity with the rest of the world beyond the now increasingly bankrupt paper facade of liberal "internationalism." Socialist internationalism (though itself insincere at times) offered Europeans, the first time, a way to reimagine our identity beyond the deeply entrenched cultural and racial divide of "the West and the rest," a paradigm that had shaped the idea of "Europe" for centuries, if not millennia.

Incidentally, as a result, this is a contributing factor to why the entirety of all Eastern European states, as if eager to make up for lost time now that they're in the club, have become uniformly some of the most ideologically extreme and right-wing chauvinistic freaks within Western hegemony today.

Lenin’s prediction of inter-imperialist infighting only came to pass once, during WWII, and hasn’t happened again since. Europe does learn lessons but the wrong ones. Stalin’s succession to Khrushchev meant the USSR never updated Lenin and Stalin’s analysis, which led to the policy of "peaceful coexistence." This approach utterly failed to account for the solidarity among imperialist powers under Western hegemony, which ultimately contributed to the Soviet Union’s collapse.

The plain reality from the history of post-war inter-imperialist solidarity, for which the USSR already paid the price, should indicate that unless the original sin of our continent is addressed in one way or another, Europe will never be a protagonist of any scenario of multipolarity against the existing hegemonic paradigm. If it had the chance, Europe would happily loot China alongside the US just as it did in the Opium Wars and the Boxer Uprising. It doesn't do so today not because of a lack of any will, but a lack of capacity and capability. Unless it discovers a new narrative of its identity, as it did once through socialist internationalism, the rest of the world should prevent it from ever regaining that capability - and should reject as realistic any notion of an "independent Europe" willing to repudiate Western hegemony.

[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 5 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

True enough. But in Stalin's time EU policy institutions weren't churning out ream after ream of "we're being vassalised (already have) and need to do something about it".

Nor was this accompanied by the very clear indicator that the EU is genuinely cozying up to China. It's not clear in the public eye although it's obvious that propaganda outlets have stopped doing anti-China content, but the quieter behind the scenes stuff is making it very clear they want to be closer.

The EU is stuck. It either fully vassalises, something that will result in a nationalist anti-US reactionary takeover that leads to conflict in Europe, or it gets closer to China. Those are the options. Closer Russia ties is obviously off the table right now but that's what they were doing prior to this war breaking out, even up to the very very start of the war Europe was still working on closer ties to Russia.

And if you think the above policy institute isn't still worrying about sovereignty, here is their take on Merz 10 days ago: https://ecfr.eu/article/from-fence-sitter-to-pace-setter-how-merzs-germany-can-lead-europe/

The very final point of it is their concern about sovereignty.

But the fundamental questions about Merz’s overall chancellorship are bigger still; indeed, they are European-history-shaping judgment calls. Ultimately, does Merz act on his recognition that Europe needs closer economic and military integration? Does his rhetoric on supporting Ukraine add up to a proportional German contribution to European deterrence of Russia? Do his economic and trade policies stake out Germany (and with it, Europe) in a genuinely sovereign space between the US and China?

It is the primary concern of EU policy tanks right now. Every single thing they do is filtering through "how do we maintain sovereignty" and a "the US is untrustworthy".

China is not a threat to sovereignty, we know this and so does everyone in Europe. Europe IS going to get closer and closer to China in a bid to escape vassalisation. It's not a theory it's actively what they are already doing. Trump even gave them excuses to accelerate it with the Tariff bullshit, European sentiment to China took a big boost especially when they didn't back down one bit, population views them as a necessary partner: https://ip-quarterly.com/en/what-europe-thinks-about-china-2025

All China has to do is handle their relationship with EU as well as they've handled Taiwan and things will improve. China is the only way.

Perhaps we are yin and yang on this matter. I am optimistic and you are pessimistic. I agree that it could go one of either of these directions and we seem to both agree on the possible directions, merely sitting on different sides as to what the final outcome might be. My opinion is that EU will do as it does, turtle along bureaucratically for 30 years pursuing a de-vassalisation strategy. The alternative is far riskier.

this post was submitted on 15 May 2025
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