Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.
A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?
And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
This ceasefire has the same vibes as the one in Lebanon. Unilaterally declared and still followed.
Iran shouldn't take it. But if they do, nominally they are victorious since Israel failed to a) cause regime change and b) destroy Iran's nuclear program.
However, a) could still happen if the ceasefire is taken due to internal unrest.
Yeah I don’t feel as pessimistic as others in the thread at the moment. I’m not saying it’s great or anything but I think this largely just returns us to status quo to what things at 13 days ago.
I think some are disappointed because Gaza's not rescued or anything, but status quo does give Iran time to develop an actual nuclear weapon (which they need to do if they don't want to be glassed the next time Israel wants to exercise their bloodlust)
It’s the same thing as with Hezbollah, the critiques of abandoning Palestine wouldn’t hold as much water if they hadn’t directly stepped into the fight. But starting a fight and then being forced to endure a farcical ceasefire where Israel gets to keep droning and bombing and assassinating across the region is nothing but humiliation
I don't know why anyone here expected some kind of scenario where Iran completely destroyed the entity in a single war. The US would not let that happen and would go to enormous lengths to prevent it if things started going that way. It's great to see the Zionists get a taste of their own medicine, but we need to remember that this is all in response to the Zionists attacking.
We all want Iran to do less west appeasing, but war and potential direct confrontation against the United States is not an easy thing to want for your populace and generally something to avoid unless you can win. Anti-imperialism is not warmongering, direct confrontation should not be undertaken lightly and should be used strategically.
Iran should get a nuke
The populace wants war. It wants an end of this humiliation. It wants a nuclear weapon. There are massive rallies happing in Tehran demanding the government strengthen their attacks.
It's the feckless government that's too cowardly to do what its people demand. I think they may legitimately get toppled if they agree to a ceasefire by people who demand they stand up and fight.
I was one of those hoping to see Gaza be included in the ceasefire, but I am also seeing thanks to insight from comrades here that Iran probably wasn’t in a position to negotiate. I mean, I think Iran still had options open like closing the Strait but idk
The thing about closing the straight is that’s pretty much the top of the escalation ladder while the US has more options to pick from. Ultimately this makes the two sides look very unequal in responses because they are. Iran can’y jump straight to the top of their ladder, and they don’t have as many rungs to escalate on their side every time the US decides to escalate on theirs.
Escalation ladder crap is idealist nonsense. Talk about the material effects of blocking the strait and the difficulties of maintaining the blockade. Don't talk about this western game theoryist mumbo jumbo
No they are not nominally victorious if they cease fire at this point. The entity and the US have inflicted far more damage on Iran than vice versa at this point. What exactly is stopping israel from attacking them again in a week's time if they ceasefire now?
Of course the US and Israel inflicted more physical damage. That would always be the case when Israel has nuclear weapons, and the backing of the most powerful military in the world. But Iran survived, and inflicted much more psychological damage on Israel. The illusion of safety is shattered, and Israel is again the aggressor and driving the opinion of reasonable people away from them
Psychological damage doesn't kill them. The genocide will be completed now. Nobody did anything. Nobody stood up for them but Yemen. Iran was dragged into the war against its will and immediately buckled, underwhelming the entire axis.
Calm down chuddy the orange man made it up
Emir of Qatar also lying? I hope so, but I've been through this like 5 times already and its the same pattern over and over. I really do hope the Emir of Qatar and Trump are just straight up making things up out of wholecloth and Iran continue to attack the entity, but something doesn't add up here. De-escalatory telegraphed strike on the USA that Iran always does when it wants to give up and wriggle its way back into sticking its head in the sand.
Nah they just denied it for a second. I guess now we wait and see if Israel breaks the ceasefire again.
It's not enough to make up for multiple high-level assassinations, countless strikes on civilian and military infrastructure, and the loss of many top nuclear scientists. A longer war in which israeli AD becomes more degraded would have been far more equal in terms of physical and psychological damage. I hope for this reason that the ceasefire is not real.
We had similar levels of cope about Hezbollah really was the winner of their ceasefire. Now they basically don't exist
Why even make this comparison? The situation is obviously wildly different
Is it?
Iran's "regime" shouldnt have the same level of reorganization capacity, weaknesses and ability and to achieve its needed deterents and sovereignty compared to a paramilitary semi-state bordering Israel. They can and should swiftly achieve enough objectives regarding mossad purging, reformist purging, nuclear reorganization and weaponization and geopolitical manuvering and rearmament given an enviroment without israeli and US planes flying tours over their heads bombing them every 3 hours. If they cant or arent willing to then they are Assaded
Iran has not yet once shown a willingness to do what is necessary. They have been dragged, kicking and screaming, into this war. They have half-assed literally everything. Why should we assume they will randomly change?