(credit to RomCom1989 for the title)
Image is of an Iranian soldier exulting in the launch of a ballistic missile aimed towards the imperialists.
short summary this week: US doing pretty bad and Iran doing pretty good all things considered, Strait of Hormuz is closed and will almost certainly remain so until the end of the war, Trump has no idea what to do, global economic crisis from strait closure is basically guaranteed at this point but who will ultimately benefit most and who will ultimately lose most is still up in the air.
longish summary is below in the spoiler tags
longish summary
While there are still major debates raging about how badly things are actually going right now and what the post-conflict map may look like, as we blaze past the two week mark on this conflict, it's becoming ever more obvious to almost everybody involved that this war is not going according to plan, if there ever was one. US airstrikes are, from what I can best determine, still mostly done with relatively less powerful (but still very dangerous!) and much less plentiful standoff munitions launched from bombers, though certain border and coastal areas are being struck with more powerful and more plentiful short-range guided bombs. This indicates that Iranian air defense is still sufficiently functional throughout most of Iran that the kinds of true carpet bombing done against Korea and Vietnam in the past (and Gaza very recently) is still too risky, though their airspace is still very much under assault, as we appear to have images of small groups of Western fighters breaching relatively deep into the country. Under some kind of Iranian pressure (drones? missiles? speedboats?) one aircraft carrier has retreated to a thousand kilometers from Iran, hiding behind the mountains of Oman; the other is sitting in the Red Sea, rather pointedly out of range of Yemen. As such, the ranges that Western aircraft must travel to bombard Iran is increasing, which reduces their frequency and increases strain on maintenance and logistics in the medium and long term.
While there is tons to say about the current social, economic, and military state of Iran, I don't think I have a reliable enough picture to give a good summary beyond "they aren't close to defeat or regime change". What has instead captured much of the world's attention is the continuing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has inspired some of the most delusional statements I have seen so far in my life, which is sincerely a profound achievement. For those out of the loop: the strait is currently closed to all shipping except those going to very particular countries (I've seen China and Bangladesh mentioned, and apparently India is in the process of working something out and may succeed or fail). This is because most ships are not risking the trip due to the ~20 tankers and container ships that Iran has already struck and disabled in the strait and in the Persian Gulf. Additionally, the threat from Iran's military to Navy ships is such that attempting to create a convoy to guide tankers through it is suicidal to both the Navy and merchant ships. Right now it cannot be done, and it very well might be the case that it could never be done, simply due to the combination of Iran's naval forces (hundreds, perhaps thousands, of armed, specialized speedboats designed for exactly this purpose), their drones (in the tens of thousands), their torpedoes, and if all else fails, their naval mines.
The Western reaction to this has been so moronic that it has almost integer underflowed into being philosophical: what does it truly mean for a passage to be "closed"? Has Iran truly "closed" the strait, or is the risk of traversing it simply too high for these cowardly sailors (who, for some strange reason, seem to care about their "lives" and "families")? How is it possible for Iran to have closed the strait if, according to the West, Iran's military has been totally obliterated? All these questions and more plague the minds of those who cannot accept the now-proven fact that there are indeed military forces on this planet that the US Navy with all its aircraft carriers and destroyers and submarines cannot defeat; and one of those minds is, rather hilariously, Trump himself. His thrice-daily positive affirmations that Iran has been defeated are taking on an increasingly deranged and almost pitiable tone; the lamentations of a man who has finally found a situation where him merely stating that something is true is insufficient to change the situation one iota. Despite stating that some kind of naval compact or alliance is being established to protect shipping, every Western country so far - from the UK, to France, to Japan, to Australia - has publicly stated that they will not risk their ships to do so. All this as the continued blockade yet further guarantees a worldwide energy, production, transportation, and food crisis that will have major global ramifications for at least the rest of the decade and almost certainly beyond.
If the anti-imperialists play their cards right, the US could lose much from this crisis, and others, like China and Russia, could gain a great deal. To quote Nia Frome (co-founder of Red Sails): "An effective Marxist has to be enough of an accelerationist/pervert to treat the obviously bad things that are going to happen as the political opportunities they are."
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
ah sweet, man-made gambling horrors beyond my comprehension https://archive.ph/qREE5
more
cont'd in response
There is a very good reason why gambling is prohibited under Sharia law
The only kind of gambling I would allow is with an elaborate machine that only accepted coins and the entire thing would be difficult to operate. It would have a bunch of mechanical caps and switches, the coin would travel through a maze (you would listen to nice mechanical clinking for like 10 seconds) and you start the bet by operating a huge mechanical lever.
Interpersonal gambling is fine on a small scale, like some friends playing a poker game or you and a buddy making a bet about something. It’s when it’s scaled up and commodified that it becomes a major issue. The presence of a “house” introduces perverse incentives and profit motives
that sounds pretty sick actually, I'd go for that
Like a factory where you go to work but only get paid occasionally, in random amounts.
This is called independent contracting based on my helping out a buddy of mine.
And this isn't even some resistance journalist trying to film ballistic missile impacts, it's the Times of Israel war correspondent retweeting a video of an Iranian ballistic missile impacting a forest. Apparently that set off the gamblers because it's official confirmation that a missile impacted the territory of Israel on a specific date, which they bet against. Such a non event in a massive war leading to this, threats against the guy's life by gamblers who lost a ton of money.
any half serious government would have banned this shit already
Man this is so fucked. Betting vehicles that are supposed to help “find the truth via the power of markets” will of course actually just be markets where you can “buy the truth” but unlike a boxing match that the mob has fixed, this adds that incentive to literally every single event in the world.
What are the guardrails here for you deciding to bet on someone dying on a date via a specific method, and basically creating your own contract hit on someone that you get paid out in for doing?
Related to that, I've noticed more and more headlines labelling the odds of something happening ("50% Chance of XYZ before April"), but it just turns out its the odds according to the betting market (???). It's like they're intentionally confusing real news with what betting markets believe to be true
Truly a new depth to this horrifying hyperreality we live in
It’s so funny. Doing good analysis is hard, and also not ever close to a sure thing. Like gases in a vessel, everything is going to seek the easiest path of egress/tendency towards entropy, and since it’s hard to design a system that “selects the truth” I feel like you’re almost always going to end up with manipulation.
It’s a bad sign when media is now just using this shit as a source, but to be fair the “media” has been pretty deadend for a while already, this just feels like the extra removed icing on that cake.
apparently it is prohibited to bet on the death of a person. this was why everyone who thought they had won betting on the death of khamenei was SOL. the language of the bet was that he would be "out". the platform argued that death didn't count as "out" due to contradicting this policy. they refunded the wouldvebeen-winners their table stakes but didn't pay out on the odds.
but the point stands for a million other bad things. gives people with critical (but often invisible) roles a massive incentive to sabotage virtually anything. it is basically an accelerationism machine.
more
I think the original story has been updated since you posted? or got abridged by someone. I couldn't access archive.is so I am not sure what it points to, this is how the article ends on the infernal TOI; I didn't compare the whole text.
spoiler
original urlhttps://www.timesofisrael.com/gamblers-trying-to-win-a-bet-on-polymarket-are-vowing-to-kill-me-if-i-dont-rewrite-an-iran-missile-story/it was only up to the Giving testimony to the police section when I read it, I guess the Condemnation by Polymarket is an update
Yeah it is kind of mixed in together that's why I included both.
TOI reporter probably beaming with joy to have found an adversary so scummy as to allow them to humblebrag about how not all journos have such high ethical standards as he does.
it's difficult because polymarket is trash but so is the TOI...
Total amateur shit from the polymarket users. They should sit down at the table of success and learn from the best: Eric Adams Advisor Winnie Greco Handed a CITY Reporter Cash Stuffed in a Bag of Potato Chips. Which didn't work out this one time because of an error in judgement about which reporter to use it on, but after this story, basically every paper in NYC admitted to accepting such gifts. I am sure the TOI would have been happier to say whatever if the approach had been more tactful.
(Assuming this article is the most honest thing ever published by TOI and not itself a web of self serving lies.)
Lmao
I'm definitely maybe going to kill you.
Oh man I was going to post that but got busy. What a sick society.