New preamble:
Palestinian resistance groups have launched an operation in and around Gaza to fight the genocidal settler state oppressing them. Thousands of rockets have been launched towards the so-called state of Israel, overwhelming the Iron Dome. Settlers and the troops protecting them are being killed in the settlements surrounding Gaza, with many caught by surprise in the first few hours of the operation.
Palestinians are taking many Israeli settlers and soldiers hostage and bringing them back to Gaza. An Israeli general, Nimrod Aloni, has been confirmed captured. Palestinians are also taking military and civilian equipment back. Drones and MANPADS appear to be in use, and a number of Merkava tanks have been destroyed/disabled and their occupants removed and taken hostage. Palestinian forces appear to be heading in two main directions so far: southeast in the direction of Be'er Sheva, and along the coast in the direction of Ashkelon, but settlements all around Gaza have been assaulted and taken. It is obviously unknown how far they intend to go, or what their intermediate goals are.
Israel is bombing the Gaza Strip with aircraft, destroying buildings. It appears that their intelligence on the location of Palestinian forces outside of Gaza is very poor, and haven't been able to meaningfully strike them. Netanyahu has given a statement declaring that Israel is in a state of war. Iran has issued statements in support of the uprising, and Israel has responded with hostility to those comments. In all, the IDF appears to still be in a shockingly bad state hours after the assault began.
Old preamble on Antarctica:
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Much of the information for this news post, including both the images in the preamble, came from this article at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, which has been circulating in the media lately.
Image has been taken from this article.
Antarctica has had a uniquely bad year.
While the sea ice extent in the last 50 years or so has been very gradually declining, it has done so very slowly on average - by 0.1% per decade. This began to change in 2016:
Even so, this year is different, showing a remarkable decrease in the maximum sea ice extent. It is unconfirmed (I think) but this year may be the first in which the maximum extent fails to reach 17 million square kilometers - and is more than one million square kilometers lower than the previous record low maximum in 1986.
The fall in sea ice has been linked by some researchers to warming in the uppermost ocean layer caused by lateral and upward mixing of warmer water. The ocean is a gigantic heat sink, and has been absorbing much of the excess heat that humanity has generated via the greenhouse effect. But put enough heat into a heat sink and it will eventually fill up.
These changes in sea ice extent is no mere abstract climate worry or scientific curiosity. It is having a direct, catastrophic impact on the Antarctic's ecosystem. Emperor penguin colonies have had trouble breeding, so much so that:
...there is high probability that no chicks had survived last year in four of the five known emperor penguin colonies in the central and eastern Bellingshausen Sea. This was because the sea ice had melted well before chicks would have developed waterproof feathers. ... Today's report says about one-third of the 62 known emperor penguin colonies in Antarctica were affected by partial or total sea ice loss between 2018 and 2022.
And, last year, scientists conducted a study on the two plants that are able to grow near Antarctica, looking at a single Antarctic island for simplicity, and found that the populations of these plants had exploded in the last decade - growing as much in the last decade as they had in the last 50 years - due to rising air temperatures. It was warm enough for the scientists to wear shorts and remove their shirts.
The Country of the Week is Syria! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.
The weekly update is here!
Links and Stuff
The bulletins site is down.
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can.
Resources For Understanding The War
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last week's discussion post.
how delusional is NATO on a scale of 1-10 on a potential ceasefire with Russia lol
like the other potential treaties and ceasefires proposed over the course of the conflict, it'll probably fall victim to a very minor, extremely small roadblock: everybody agreeing to a course of action without asking if Russia agrees too
it remains incredible to me how often this shit happens.
"Alright, we've figured out how we're gonna get a ceasefire going, where we're going to sign the peace treaty, all the parts in the treaty, what Russia will get, what Ukraine will get, the long-term deals, it's all worked out in the--"
"Have you asked Russia if they agree to any of this?"
"...no, but who gives a shit about what Russia wants? They're the aggressor! They did the invalid elections in the four oblasts! We need to re-do them! They'll get the Donbass if they're lucky."
plan proceeds to never go anywhere. repeat 3 months later
one day Westerners will learn that they cannot always freely dictate terms and actually have to fucking talk to their enemies.
(george bush voice)
we don't negotiate with terrorists
terrrrists
I get the sense it's gonna take another couple direct humiliations for that to get through to them.
if they actually try to make ceasefire talks happen they will have completely batshit demands, like, Russia has to fully withdraw from Donbass and Crimea, Russia has to agree to begin making payments to Ukraine, maybe even demanding that all Russian-ethnicity Ukrainians must repatriate to Russia
The west has been saying “Russia has to do a complete withdrawal from Crimea and Donbas before we even begin negotiations”
How fucking stupid do they think Russia is? What negotiation or peace talks have ever had complete withdrawal and surrender as a pre-requisite before peace talks and not as part of them? Why would anyone give up their entire leverage before they have received a single thing?
07-26 Former U.S. Official Shares Details of Secret ‘Track 1.5’ Diplomacy With Moscow
This was the last time there was a credible rumor about negotiations, Mercouris thought it was at least on the realm of plausibility, personaly I thought it was nonsense. In any case obviously nothing happened but it is certainly likely there are back channels.
The main problem is the US still doesn't know how to get rid of Ukraine and meanwhile Zelensky and the Nazis are still delusional with their great dreams of victory and cleaning crimea etc etc.
Anyway point is both Ukraine and US officials are delusional so a true deal is impossible. Right now its a 12. If the US somehow admits to cutting their losses by saying fuck you Zelensky you'll accept it period then its a 7 or 8.
I assume you are talking about a peace deal not the "freeze conflict" nonsense, the latter is impossible.
Unreal. They’re not even living in reality as far as I can tell from that article.
They constantly mention “Russia leaders don’t really know why they went to war or what victory would look like”
Motherfucker, they screamed their red lines for decades. You just decided they didn’t exist!
Bin laden wrote detailed explanations of why the 9/11 attack happened but Americans still believe some vague story about them hating our freedoms
We are an absolutely irrational, housebroken culture