148
Sleeping Beauty Trolley Problem
(mander.xyz)
OC just for you! ♥️
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2023
148 points (90.2% liked)
Science Memes
11189 readers
3749 users here now
Welcome to c/science_memes @ Mander.xyz!
A place for majestic STEMLORD peacocking, as well as memes about the realities of working in a lab.
Rules
- Don't throw mud. Behave like an intellectual and remember the human.
- Keep it rooted (on topic).
- No spam.
- Infographics welcome, get schooled.
This is a science community. We use the Dawkins definition of meme.
Research Committee
Other Mander Communities
Science and Research
Biology and Life Sciences
- !abiogenesis@mander.xyz
- !animal-behavior@mander.xyz
- !anthropology@mander.xyz
- !arachnology@mander.xyz
- !balconygardening@slrpnk.net
- !biodiversity@mander.xyz
- !biology@mander.xyz
- !biophysics@mander.xyz
- !botany@mander.xyz
- !ecology@mander.xyz
- !entomology@mander.xyz
- !fermentation@mander.xyz
- !herpetology@mander.xyz
- !houseplants@mander.xyz
- !medicine@mander.xyz
- !microscopy@mander.xyz
- !mycology@mander.xyz
- !nudibranchs@mander.xyz
- !nutrition@mander.xyz
- !palaeoecology@mander.xyz
- !palaeontology@mander.xyz
- !photosynthesis@mander.xyz
- !plantid@mander.xyz
- !plants@mander.xyz
- !reptiles and amphibians@mander.xyz
Physical Sciences
- !astronomy@mander.xyz
- !chemistry@mander.xyz
- !earthscience@mander.xyz
- !geography@mander.xyz
- !geospatial@mander.xyz
- !nuclear@mander.xyz
- !physics@mander.xyz
- !quantum-computing@mander.xyz
- !spectroscopy@mander.xyz
Humanities and Social Sciences
Practical and Applied Sciences
- !exercise-and sports-science@mander.xyz
- !gardening@mander.xyz
- !self sufficiency@mander.xyz
- !soilscience@slrpnk.net
- !terrariums@mander.xyz
- !timelapse@mander.xyz
Memes
Miscellaneous
founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
There's a 5/6 chance someone is put onto the side rail (the one the trolley won't go down without interfering with it)
There's a 1/6 chance someone is put onto the main rail (the one the trolley WILL go down)
You're more likely to be on the side track if you're involved in this scenario, so if you wanna get hit you SHOULD try to flip it (if you're the one on the side track, it guarantees a hit. If you're one of the 10 people on the main, you have a 90% chance of having a dead switch and should try anyway)
Unless being tired at work is making me miss something
No, your math is wrong. The chance you're on the main track is actually twice as high. Imagine it like this: When all numbers 1-6 would come up once, there have been 10 people overall on the main track and only 5 people on the side track
But 9 of those people can't affect the outcome either way. So the chance that you're on the main track and can affect the outcome in a positive way by flipping the switch is only 1/15.
There's a 1/6 chance that scenario B happens, but that scenario involves 10 people, and the only thing you know is that you are one person strapped to the rail, so the chance that you are strapped to the main rail is P(main) = P(B|abducted) = P(abducted|B) * P(B) / P(abducted) = 10 * P(abducted|A) * 1/6 / P(abducted).
We can do the same for P(side) = P(A|abducted) = P(abducted|A) * P(A) / P(abducted) = P(abducted|A) * 5/6 / P(abducted). Then, P(main) / P(side) = 10 * 1/6 / 5/6 = 2. Since P(main) + P(side) = 1, then P(main) = 2/3 and P(side) = 1/3.
Edit: typo