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2024 Predictions
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this post was submitted on 01 Jan 2024
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chapotraphouse
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This doesn't require 6% of the vote. 5% is probably enough to satisfy the prediction due to population increases.
5% is a huge amount of votes.
Nader's 2000 campaign got 2,8% of the vote, and he was a nationally known and popular radlib at the time for his consumer rights advocacy - 5% is an amount of votes European leftist parties struggle to get for the last 20 years, not to mention communist ones.
Of course, it would be a huge achievement to get that many votes (and probably impossible without party structures in every major county at the least), but matching the 0,24% total for far-left parties from 1976 is a more realistic expectation.
That's the most unattractive framing I've ever seen. Framing it that way is more likely to push people away than to get them doing it, even comrades.
Five percent.
I mean if you want to get excited over electoralism, go ahead - I'm in a dead end demsoc party and if you expect huge gains and communism in 5 years because you're Harry DuBois and you're gonna fix the malaise of the left, you're just gonna get yourself burnt out.
It's not a matter of expecting it comrade. It's a matter of pursuing it. You're far more likely to make a goal of 0.25% (or more) by shooting for 5% than you are by shooting for 0.25%. You try selling that shit to someone, they'll laugh at you.
The target must be attractive if you're going to draw anyone in that isn't already a marxist leninist, and PSL's name and modernised style is uniquely suited to casting a wider net than most ML parties are capable of.