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submitted 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) by SexUnderSocialism@hexbear.net to c/chapotraphouse@hexbear.net

The good news is it would open the door to eventual EU and NATO membership.

Lol. Lmao, even.

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[-] Greenleaf@hexbear.net 39 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

1.) Russia is not conceding any territory they currently control. And Crimea is about as much in play as St. Petersburg.

2.) Russia will not accept Ukraine being allowed into any military alliance with NATO, and will not accept them being a member.

Russia does not need to budge an inch on those two points because they are winning and outside of NATO getting involved and starting WW3, Russia will only be making gains, not losses.

Edit: want to add a comment about this comment

Europe is all talk about picking up the slack

This might be true in the very near term. The problem is the Euro population seems to be increasingly fed up with it all and I don’t see that trend reversing. If Le Pen wins the presidency in France on a campaign of ending support for Ukraine; and if AfD picks up a ton of seats on a similar platform; and various parties in smaller countries do likewise… how long do you think that support will last?

[-] Dessa@hexbear.net 19 points 10 months ago

Feels like everything could start world war 3 right now.

[-] ReadFanon@hexbear.net 7 points 10 months ago

There's nothing I disagree with in your comment but I would be cautious on placing bets on the actions of fascists like Le Pen and AfD.

I think history shows that fascists are ideological windvanes and the absolute worst type of opportunists, so I'd keep an open mind about the potential for them back flipping on election platforms and policy because if an opportunity presents itself then they're likely to grasp it with both hands, even if it means contradicting themselves and breaking promises.

There's every chance that your assessment is correct but fascists can be surprisingly unpredictable, especially in their nascent form like we're seeing in Europe today.

Fuck I hope that we aren't going to see this play out either way though. I'd much prefer to live in a world where this discussion remains squarely in the realms of speculation.

[-] mwguy@infosec.pub 1 points 10 months ago

2.) Russia will not accept Ukraine being allowed into any military alliance with NATO, and will not accept them being a member.

Russia wasn't going to accept Finland and Sweeden's entries either. Russia doesn't get a choice in the matter.

this post was submitted on 04 Jan 2024
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