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this post was submitted on 22 Mar 2024
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This might be the most interesting point in the war since the Wagner mutiny. With the Belgorod attacks Ukraine has been really pushing Russia's red line of no territorial attacks for symbolic victories. Freedom of Russia Legion Nazis take a photo of themselves holding a flag in some border village, lose all of their vehicles, and die in a ditch for nothing except propaganda value and the hope of drawing NATO further into the war. If this mass shooting results in any connection to Ukraine, I think Kiev and civilian infrastructure is going to come under much heavier assault in response.
It very much likely is, how many mass shootings occur in Russia ever? This is the result of the West funding neo-nazis.
We get some, occasionally. Had several school shootings and stabbings. But I doubt this one is one of those
Not all the same or in the quantity America has the shootings like this one, or the others you descirbed for that matter.
Russia has had some pretty notable school and barracks shootings and there are other separatist factions with varying levels of connection to the west. It's that degree of separation which makes the response ambiguous. Russia has done things more or less tit-for-tat and if they have a disproportionate response then it will have disproportionate consequences for them. I'm just curious to see which group is held responsible and how closely they're tied to the west because this is going to fuck up someone's day.
Could be a Central Asian separatist group although those have definitely been less of a thing for the past few decades
It was ISIS.
So yes the West.
Lol where can I read about this latest nazi outfit getting owned
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/search?q=Freedom+of+Russia+Legion&restrict_sr=on&include_over_18=on&sort=relevance&t=all
The main subreddit that covers their quixotic adventures. They're Russian citizens under a far-right leader. Before the Russian election they released this masterfully cringey video: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1bctpmp/ua_pov_the_legion_is_going_to_the_elections_wait/
After that, they've made a few cross-border assaults on villages to take a photo of themselves holding a flag.
(CW: death) https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1bdtkm9/ru_pov_ukrainian_saboteurs_attacking_a_border/
In the big assault, they tried to cross the border checkpoint into Russia. Their tank immediately hit a mine trying to drive straight through it. The infantry then came under artillery fire, retreated to a ditch, and I can't remember whether it was artillery/lancets/drone grenades which were then used to pick them off.
Since then they've done more raids where they hole up in some village and the Russians shell it. Occasionally they take a prisoner before going back to Ukraine.
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"Interesting" is quite a choice of words
I mean it's all horrifying on moral and human levels. There's just also that world historical cool zone level where you're seeing decades happen in weeks. If you're watching a war like this develop as a meaningful geopolitical event, you have to either abstract it into competing systems or be broken by focusing on the personal/moral tragedy of every death. Emergency medicine is also interesting to me because if I only think about it in human terms it's nothing but hopeless trauma and gazing into the abyss.
Except I'm not watching it like a geopolitical event. I am watching it as a conscription eligible Russian citizen in a city with a whole lot of targetable infrastructure (including my own workplace), and that has already been attacked prior.
How are you holding up comrade?
Poorly. Distracting myself with reading Marx (letter to Vera Zasulich).
God bless you mate. May you live to see better days.
“Do not do what your opponent wants you to do” - idk Sun Tzu probably.
Assuming the west/Ukraine are behind this attack… why? Obviously no military value. It’s not going to demoralize the Russian people. The only reasonable conclusion I can come to is they want Russia to respond with a heavy hand and hit Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure hard in response as payback.
If that’s the case, I think the Biden admin and NATO country leaders are frustrated with the public’s and political opposition to further supporting the war - whether it’s more money or sending NATO troops. Russia continues their slow advance - just slow enough to not trigger alarm. Get the Russians to hit back hard and that could make it a lot easier for NATO to build support for escalation.
I’m sure it’s not what Russia wants to do, but I think the best strategy is to stick to the plan because I think this attack was done to get them to come off that plan.