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Electric Cars Are Suddenly Becoming Affordable
(www.nytimes.com)
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this post was submitted on 03 Jun 2024
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My main two concerns are battery replacement (and affordability of replacements including a third party market for compatible parts) and battery restoration/recovery. Alternatively, if we could massively increase battery life span (not a single charge - but how many charge/discharge cycles they can survive) that might also allay my fears - but I think the first one is better.
You want 'resilience'.
Added to my lexicon!
Why do you think the cyclic life of current or 10 year old batteries is not already good enough? Do you know how often they fail? How much they degrade after 10 years?
The US DoE puts EV battery half-life at 8-12 years for most current vehicles. That's insanely short compared to ICE.
Do you have the link for that? Many old Model S' are still getting well over 50% of their range; closer to 85-90%. The only way I could see that being is if a large portion of the batteries in the sample were Nissan Leafs which were air cooled and degraded horribly in extreme heat or extreme cold.
Yeah, I can't do that. As little as I drive, they would last longer, but still. I'll be retired or close enough in 12-years, won't be able to afford a fresh battery. My ICE convertible and truck are 02 and 04 models and run fine.
Knowing there's a hard limit on usage, with a wildly expensive repair at the end, that's tough to swallow. I can keep my 04 F150 running forever. (For certain values of forever.)
It's not a hard limit, it's a variable capacity reduction over a decade that estimates a maximum 50% reduction in range, similar to the lost efficiency of an ICE engine as the tubes , pipes and cases erode.
You add in the far lower fuel/repair/ maintenance costs and that optional new battery is costing you less than you're paying in gasoline, oil changes or other basic and common maintenance.
I drove Camry for 15 years with minimal repairs and after 180k miles I was still getting roughly the same mpg and range as when it was new. It was still going fine when I got rid of it becuae our vehicle needs changed, but even if it hadn't a complete engine rebuild at 300k (if needed) would only be a few thousand dollars or less.
Working down to half the range over a decade and then needing a very expensive repalacement battery is not comparable in any way. I really hope the battery tech keeps improving.
I’ve got 112k miles on my Tesla and still get over 250miles on a full charge, and that’s not running it to empty… just as far as I push it on a road trip. I could probably make it 275-285 easy. Never had a problem with range and have had minimal maintenance costs compared to all of the ICE vehicles I drove over 20years I drove ‘em.
Congratulations!
Thanks! It’s been great since I left the ICE world. I can only hope to help others take the leap!
It's comparable in that optional battery maintenance is currently the same price as the average cost of repairs you made on your Camry plus the cost of gas for a decade.
Even if battery tech weren't simultaneously improving and getting cheaper every couple of months, ev costs are already at least comparable with ICEs.
As battery tech improves and efficiency rises, the price is going to keep getting cheaper.
I wasn't talking about cost, I was talking about the ability to travel a comparable range on a charge. Does battery maintenance keep it at 95% of the original range at 15 years?
Less maintenance and cheaper charging is actually a selling point for electric cars, and I am not disagreeing with that. But a used 15 year old car that has a far lower range than new and will most likely need a new expensive battery replacment within a few years is not the same as a 15 year old car that performs like new and won't need a massive repair in the near future.
No more than ICEs stay at 95% of the original range at 15 years.
Your argument is based on accepting a hypothetical best case scenario for a random ICE to the worst case scenario for a random EV.
"A used 15-year-old ICE car with a cracked head gasket isn't the same compared to an electric car that's managed to retain near its full capacity".
No, of course it isn't.
EVs are already cheaper over time, are already comparable at MSRP, and their range and efficiency isn't static like ICE cars.
Range anxiety is real, but it boils down to anxiety; range is still there and only improving.
Shoot, the aptera is going to recharge passively from solar 40 miles a day, and they have thousand mile ranges on a charge.
In fuel costs alone, an EV owner is saving about $1,000 a year.
After a decade, you can get that extra 20% capacity back with a new battery for cheaper than you would have been spending on your ICE car that cannot be refurbished in the same way.
Just adds up.
Based on my last two cars apparently being hypothetical best case scenarios, sure.
I look forward to electric cars range continuing to improve, but as long as I live somewhere that range actually matters half of the year I'll take the current ranges as they work in reality into consideration.
Naturally.
Most people appreciate innovation after it becomes common rather than when it becomes practical.
If your 15-year-old cars have the same MPG and have never needed a repair, yes, your cars are performing to a degree that has never been recorded.
How long should a battery last compared to an ice engine… and how much should it cost to replace? If you actually look into the statistics, battery packs (at least on Teslas) last longer than ICE motors by a factor of 2 to 5. And their replacement costs are currently around 2x, but will come down over time. Regardless, I’d never replace a battery pack, just like I’d never replace an ICE motor.
If you run the numbers down to a per mile cost, EVs… especially Teslas… outlast and are significantly cheaper to operate than any ICE vehicle on the market. There is a huge amount of disinformation out there around EVs.
That’s not to say everyone can afford to spend the money (or get the loan) to go electric up front… but if you can manage it, it will pay off in the long run. I’ll never buy another ICE vehicle as long as I live. It‘d feel like I’m flushing money down the toilet.
I’ve always driven gasoline vehicles until repairs are more expensive than replacement, which has meant 10-15 years. At that point they’re worth almost nothing, which also means I don’t need to get too worked up about getting a good deal.
Average battery life span used to be shorter due to early leaf’s not having active cooling
I hope EVs are similar, and read stories online about Tesla batteries lasting 12-15 years. Assuming that pans out, EVs are already no different from gasoline vehicles.
I’ll let you know in 15 years
So tired of hearing about battery replacement as if having a $10,000 thing that breaks in your car after 10 years is somehow unique to EVs. Ask Chrysler owners how many transmissions they've put in their car, or Subaru owners how many engines they've put in theirs. I bet the average battery pack is lasting far longer than either of those.