At this point in time, i think she has it in the bag. However, this is probably one of the craziest elections i've ever seen; anything can fucking happen between now and november.

You can see how suddenly The Discourse™ has shifted from one solely built of melancholy and scolding, to one of enthusiasm and excitement (and scolding). Though the optimism is entirely misplaced in terms of policy or the legitimacy of US "democracy," it highlights just how much a difference it makes to have a political campaign which actually inspires hope in people, rather than one which fully embraces ossification, decline, hopelessness, and self-flagellation.

This honeymoon will fade, but there's a good chance it will last long enough to serve its purpose.

I think it was like a 30% chance that Biden won, and now it's a 50% chance that Harris wins.

So much is hanging on what both Trump and Harris do in the time up until the election that I'm uncomfortable making electoral predictions again now. But I don't see any big reasons why Harris can't win against Trump, unlike Biden. The Democrats - hell, most left-wing parties (relatively speaking obviously, the Democrats are also fascist) - in Western countries seem to be increasingly merely be protest votes against more overt fascism, rather than generating a ton of enthusiasm for their platforms or leaders. So in that sense, the Democratic candidate could be a plank of wood with a list of platitudes engraved into it and most of the Democratic base would still vote for it.

It's all the various minority groups where the real battles are, and I simply don't have enough information yet to know whether Harris will sway them or not. There are some good guesses I could make (probably a higher proportion of women and people of colour will vote for Harris than for Biden) but it's also possible that there's a big chunk of people who really liked the propaganda about Biden being a wise elderly statesman who is good on labour (lmfao) and/or don't trust a "young progressive newcomer" (lmfao). Americans are deeply politically ignorant so one has to analyze the propaganda, not the reality, when it comes to domestic politics.

But she stands a better chance than Biden does, I think that's indisputable.

The problem is Kamala has never been popular, the KHive was entirely astroturfed and she really doesn't have a base. Now she's going to be the nominee without ever even completing a presidential primary and earning any electors at all. The blue no matter who people will vote for her but I suspect swing voters won't.

Tbh she feels like a sacrificial lamb being thrown to the wolves because the establishment have already seemed to have crowned Trump president again and the Dems have accepted it. She's unpopular so they could just use this to dispose of her and keep better candidates untarnished for 2028.

She is the favorite imo a few things to take into account imo:

1- Kamala is also a flawed and bad candidate but the Trump campaign can't attack her on racism and misogyny alone. The dems are lucky that their evil inadequacy towards not protecting abortion now comes to give them the edge. Abortion is a popular issue and Trump doubling down on attacking it with a female president on the line? I think that is a bit too much for the civility cult.

The way in which Kamala is taking the momentum away from the post shooting narrative and sympathy towards Trump is going to be key imo. Trump was focused on Biden but now they have to turn around and attack Kamala and unless they suddenly become competent its tough.

How do you turn around from smol bean little "political violence" victim back towards a straight hateful misogynistic chud? The Trump campaign will try to go on the offensive and this will abandon much of the good will and civility cult points he earned post shooting.

2- Trump isn't competent, he is disliked, he in fact did not leave a better economy. His only edge was a rethorical advantage against Biden on things Americans don't usualy care that much e.g foreign policy. I'm sorry to say but it wont take much for her to wash away most of her image from the Biden admin, all it takes is some empty promises towards de-escalating Gaza.

Keep in mind that on this issue Biden offered literaly nothing. he kept talking about NATO as if anyone gives a shit. Ukraine? Would've helped without the Putin gaffe but even then its an embarrassing lost war with nothing to show for except a massive budget. The point is normal average lib doesn't care about Ukraine beyond rethorical Putler bad shit.

I don't expect her to drop Ukraine/NATO talking points, but it would be a huge mistake to keep this the central point like Biden wanted so there is a decent chance she moves away from being obsessed with NATO like Biden is.

3- Hillary won the popular vote and we all acknowledge it was her own fault rather than any competent Trump strategy, we may see something similar where Kamala is the favorite but loses because of [insert your favorite conspiracy here].

i also think that, it would need some world historic fumbling the bag by dems. Especially when trump picked vance, who is in freakwing of republicans, with weird takes all around

Idk. The democrats can fuck up incredibly easy lay ups. But, at least for the democrats base, a black woman cop seems like their dream candidate. Idfk, we are truly in the age of chaos, i'm not making any guesses at all. But she can speak in complete sentences.

I won't call it for sure till they debate. Kamala is awkward and a bit unlikeable and trump is well... trump. Neither of them have a good chance except that their only opposition is each other so one of them has to win.

you're not crazy but personally I think she loses

It doesn't matter. Kick the Democrats while they're down. Pound home to the liberals that they will lose anyway. Make it true.

If you're trying to do some kind of "sane and rational" election prediction while the liberal establishment doesn't care and is just telling you that Copmala is the only option, that the Democrats are going to win, and that you must donkey or be complicit in fascism, you've already lost.

Seriously, be absolutely ruthless. There's blood in the water. Jump on that weakness.