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Okay, seriously tho
(hexbear.net)
If you have a materialist worldview and understand class relationships, you can generally come out of most situations with the correct take without knowing the details.
It’s not vibes, I just assume by default that everything said by the US Departments of State or Defense is a lie and that the opposite is true.
This has only lead me astray one time, regarding the Russian “invasion”* of Ukraine, where after saying that was a threat for years I assumed they were lying and it did actually happen
*Invasion seems like a strong word for entering an ongoing conflict that’s been raging on your border for years
Same tbh, my default assumption is the government is lying and the US is the bad guys
Past performance and all that
It's not analysis, but it's a really good heuristic.
I'm just a simple man toiling in the posting mines
you forgot to refer to the invasion as "full-scale" as per the western media style guide
don't forget to include "unprovoked" to hit all the key words
You can hardly be blamed when Russia was clearly trying to avoid invasion while the US via Zelensky kept poking the bear with a bigger and bigger stick.
Even that was less of a prediction and more of a promise, seeing how in the week leading up to the intervention, the shelling of the Donbas intensified wildly. Remember during that week or so, when Biden was going on TV every day saying "The Russians are going to attack Ukraine today! Er, *tomorrow!. Uh, I meant the next day!"