back in my map era, we're ukrainemaxxing right now

Declarations of the imminent doom of Ukraine are a news megathread specialty, and this is not what I am doing here - mostly because I'm convinced that whenever we do so, the war extends another three months to spite us. Ukraine has been in an essentially apocalyptic crisis for over a year now after the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, unable to make any substantial progress and resigned to merely being a persistent nuisance (and arms market!) as NATO fights to the last Ukrainian. In this context, predicting a terminal point is difficult, as things seem to always be going so badly that it's hard to understand how and why they fight on. In every way, Ukraine is a truly shattered country, barely held together by the sheer combined force of Western hegemony. And that hegemony is weakening.

I therefore won't be giving any predictions of a timeframe for a Ukrainian defeat, but the coming presidency of Trump is a big question mark for the conflict. Trump has talked about how he wishes for the war to end and for a deal to be made with Putin, but Trump also tends to change his mind on an issue at least three or four times before actually making a decision, simply adopting the position of who talked to him last. And, of course, his ability to end the war might be curtailed by a military-industrial complex (and various intelligence agencies) that want to keep the money flowing.

The alignment of the US election with the accelerating rate of Russian gains is pretty interesting, with talk of both escalation and de-escalation coinciding - the former from Biden, and the latter from Trump. Russia very recently performed perhaps the single largest aerial attack of Ukraine of the entire war, striking targets across the whole country with missiles and drones from various platforms. In response, the US is talking about allowing Ukraine to hit long-range targets in Russia (but the strategic value of this, at this point, seems pretty minimal).

Additionally, Russia has made genuine progress in terms of land acquisition. We aren't talking about endless and meaningless battles over empty fields anymore. Some of the big Ukrainian strongholds that we've been spending the last couple years speculating over - Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Orikhiv - are now being approached and entered by Russian forces. The map is actually changing now, though it's hard to tell as Ukraine is so goddamn big.

Attrition has finally paid off for Russia. An entire generation of Ukrainians has been fed into the meat grinder. Recovery will take, at minimum, decades - more realistically, the country might be permanently ruined, until that global communist revolution comes around at least. And they could have just made a fucking deal a month into the war.

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Palestinian Factions Sign Beijing Declaration on Ending Division and Strengthening Palestinian National Unity 2024-07-23 18:49

On July 23, 2024, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi attended in Beijing the closing ceremony of the reconciliation talks of Palestinian factions and witnessed the signing of the Beijing Declaration on Ending Division and Strengthening Palestinian National Unity by 14 Palestinian factions.

In his remarks, Wang Yi noted that since entering the new era, President Xi Jinping has put forward proposals and propositions on addressing the Palestinian question, contributing Chinese wisdom and solution for addressing the question. Now, 14 Palestinian factions are gathering in Beijing with the greater good of their nation in mind. This is an important historical moment in the Palestinian liberation cause. China commends the reconciliation efforts made by all the factions, and congratulates them on the success of the Beijing dialogue and the signing of the Beijing Declaration.

Wang Yi pointed out that only when Palestinian factions speak as one can the voice of justice be loud and clear, and only when they join hands and march forward shoulder to shoulder can they succeed in their national liberation cause. The most important consensus from the Beijing talks is to achieve the reconciliation and unity among the 14 factions; the core outcome is the affirmation of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as the sole legitimate representative of all Palestinian people; the biggest highlight is the agreement on establishing an interim government of national reconciliation focusing on the post-conflict reconstruction of Gaza; and the strongest call is for truly establishing an independent State of Palestine in accordance with relevant U.N. resolutions. The key to the Palestinian reconciliation process is to bolster confidence, keep to the right direction, and make incremental progress. Only by making continuous efforts to build consensus and put it into practice can the reconciliation process yield more and more substantive progress and greater unity. Reconciliation is the internal affair of Palestinian factions, and cannot happen without international support. On the path toward reconciliation, China shares the same direction and destination with Arab and Islamic countries.

Wang Yi noted that the Palestinian question is at the core of the Middle East issue. China never has any selfish interests on the Palestinian question. China was among the first countries to recognize the PLO and the State of Palestine. China all along firmly supports the Palestinian people in restoring their legitimate national rights. We value fairness and advocate for justice. At present, the Gaza conflict drags on, its spillovers continue to spread, and multiple regional conflicts are interconnected. To help get out of the current conflict and predicament, China proposes a three-step initiative:

The first step is to achieve comprehensive, lasting and sustainable ceasefire in the Gaza Strip as soon as possible, and ensure access to humanitarian aid and rescue on the ground. The international community should build more synergy for ending the hostilities and establishing a ceasefire.

The second step is to make joint efforts toward post-conflict governance of Gaza under the principle of “Palestinians governing Palestine.” Gaza is an inseparable, integral part of Palestine. Restarting post-conflict reconstruction as soon as possible is an urgent priority. The international community needs to support Palestinian factions in establishing an interim national consensus government and realizing effective management of Gaza and the West Bank.

The third step is to help Palestine become a full member state of the U.N. and get down to implementing the two-State solution. It is important to support the convening of a broad-based, more authoritative, and more effective international peace conference to work out a timetable and road map for the two-State solution.

Ceasefire and humanitarian rescue are pressing priorities. “Palestinians governing Palestine” is the basic principle for the post-conflict governance of Gaza. The two-State solution is the fundamental way forward. The international community should support the parties in taking the three steps in real earnest.

Wang Yi noted that intra-Palestinian reconciliation will bring hope and a future to the Palestinian people. It is an important step toward resolving the Palestinian question and achieving peace and stability in the Middle East. Unwavering efforts must be continually made in this direction. China sincerely hopes that Palestinian factions will achieve reconciliation and, on that basis, realize independent statehood at an early date. We will strengthen communication and coordination with the relevant parties and make joint efforts for the implementation of the Beijing Declaration.

Head of the Fatah delegation Mr. Mahmoud al-Aloul and head of the Hamas delegation Mr. Musa Abu Marzouk delivered remarks on behalf of the Palestinian factions. They noted that China holds an important place in the heart of Palestinian people, and expressed sincere appreciation for President Xi Jinping and China’s unchanging, firm support and selfless assistance to Palestine over a long period of time. They spoke highly of China’s acting as a responsible major country and upholding justice for Palestine in international fora. They expressed deep appreciation for China’s strong support for intra-Palestinian dialogue and reconciliation. They stated their readiness to implement the consensus, strengthen unity among factions, advance the reconciliation process, and work for an early solution to the question of Palestine.

Diplomatic envoys to China or their representatives from Egypt, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Russia and Türkiye as well as representatives from 14 main Palestinian factions attended the closing ceremony.

LONG LIVE THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF CHINA AND LONG LIVE COMRADE XI JINPING