Russia’s Crimean Red Line Has Been Erased, by the completely hinged and very sensible people at Foreign Policy.

...

Suckered by Russian propaganda surrounding the peninsula’s supposedly pro-Russian tilt and convinced that any Ukrainian assault on Crimea could spark potential military escalation, Western voices largely shied away from backing any attempts at returning the peninsula to Kyiv’s control. This was seen perhaps most spectacularly last month, when news emerged that Tesla CEO Elon Musk had undercut Ukrainian efforts to target the peninsula because of concerns any attack “could lead to a nuclear war.”

Those concerns were perhaps understandable, insofar as Russian officials have continually rattled a nuclear saber about protecting Crimea from any Ukrainian reclamation efforts. But now, as Ukraine unleashes near-daily assaults on the peninsula, the notion that Crimea presents some kind of Temple Mount—or even any kind of red line—for Russians has crumbled.

In the face of continued drone attacks, long-range missile fires, sabotage operations, and annihilation of military assets across Crimea, Russians have hardly treated the Ukrainian peninsula as some kind of sacred land. Rather than rushing to protect Crimea, Russians have instead begun fleeing the region en masse. Rather than seeing Russians lining up to enlist to aid the Kremlin’s defense of the peninsula, Moscow continues mooting the potential of a second, and far broader, forced mobilization. And rather than resulting in any kind of nuclear conflagration, Russians’ subdued reaction to the continued bombardment of Crimea has dissolved Putin’s claims that the peninsula is some kind of special, sacrosanct land. As McGill University professor Maria Popova recently posted on X (formerly known as Twitter), “Crimea isn’t special, let alone a red line.”

Indeed, with few even noticing, Ukraine’s continued shelling and strikes on the peninsula have illustrated one clear lesson: The idea that Crimea is some kind of holy land that Russians will race to defend—an idea that far too many in the West previously swallowed—is dead. And in that death, a wealth of new opportunities has opened up for Kyiv and for the Western partners who are suddenly realizing Crimea is hardly the sacral land Putin once claimed.

I'm having trouble forming a sentence to reply to this. I am baffled. I am utterly bewildered. This might be the single stupidest article I have read since the counteroffensive began.

They say that Russians aren't rushing to defend Crimea because Russian tourists (that is literally the article they link to, I am not making this up, go click it) don't want to get hit by Ukrainian drone strikes. They say that Russia isn't doing a second mobilization because, presumably, they think that Putin (with an 80% approval rating, over twice that of many western leaders) couldn't do it without his population rebelling against him, and they think that the Russian government is lying about how many people are volunteering and signing up for service, and because so many tens of thousands of Russians are being killed every month on the battlefields, something must eventually break. At no point is there the consideration that perhaps Russian deaths and casualties - in a defensive environment - are actually very low. Or that the Russian government might actually be telling the truth about the recruitment figures.

If Russia had nuked Ukraine over them hitting Crimea with dronestrikes, that would evidence of their barbarity, their brutality, and their weakness because they have no other method to response because their army is broken and destroyed. If Russia doesn't nuke Ukraine over Crimea, it proves that Crimea isn't special, that Russians are cowards that don't want to defend it, that Russia can't stop the strikes, and thus that Russia is weak. Completely nonfalsifiable ideology.

The fact that we're still getting these kinds of articles four months after the counteroffensive began and with no breakthrough by Ukraine really demonstrates the stunning levels of cognitive dissonance that Western analysts are capable of having. Ukraine has essentially not even moved with the combined effort of months and months of military buildup and training, throwing equipment and men at the Russian lines since June, and the conclusion we are meant to draw at this stage? That Ukraine taking Crimea (probably) wouldn't get them nuked after all! It's fair game! We need to support their efforts to retake it! I mean this as genuinely as I can convey it: What the fuck are you talking about?

The universe might be a giant laboratory simulation to see to what depths people can plunge when repeatedly shown evidence that contradicts their worldviews. I hope when Ukraine collapses and Russia marches in, whenever that may be, their brains start leaking out of their skulls as their eyes cannot comprehend what is happening, and we are spared their analysis forevermore. May god have mercy on their souls.

https://t.me/PalestineResist/13793

Israel has deployed white phosphorus in Gaza

Reactions from the political class in are, unsurprisingly, disgustingly and almost universally in support of Israel

About the only exception is Melenchon and he went with a lukewarm "this shows violence begets violence" take. Despite the innocuousness of that position, he's already taking shit for it.

https://nitter.net/MZANSIISRAEL/status/1710602213997912369

https://twitter.com/MZANSIISRAEL/status/1710602213997912369

T: We, the people of South Africa, stand with Israel and all of her people

Top reply: South Africans don’t support rubbish. We were once under apartheid, why would we support it ?

South Africans are not having it in the replies

The invincible futuristic zionist ubermensch wunderwaffen merkava tank vs 1 droney boi with a mortar round. Place your bets.

Gunther giving his take on the situation

Thanks for the tip, Gunther.

72T darling this thread is barely loading at this point for me, maybe it's time for a new mega from tomorrow

fucking zionists still ridiculing threats issued by the resistance. they really think they're invincible

Alright I have to go to work

See you later thread.

The Palestinian resistance has me feeling resistant. Considering wearing a kuffiyeh to work right now just to be annoying and provocative.

Yet I still have to listen to my boomer stepdad how climate change isn't real because it rained a few times at his geograhic location during the summer

Netanyahu: "What happened today will not be seen in Israel and I will make sure it does not happen again. The IDF will immediately use its full force to destroy Hamas' capabilities. We will avenge this black day. We will turn all the places in this evil city where Hamas is hiding into ruins. Residents of Gaza, get out of there now."

Br*tain made three contributions to the world:

Colonization

Genocide, which is deeply tied to colonization

And the word "tankie"

That's it, that's all they did. Now sink already, wretched place.

Palestine will be Free by reason or by force.

google map

There is currently gunfire and fighting in Jerusalem. IDF is overstretched and unable to keep order, small groups are causing a lot of problems.

Claims of several IDF commanders killed by Palestinian resistance:

Trump is not ruling out being the new House Speaker (NBC)

I called it.

Israel has basicly stated genocideal intention now , deprive them of Food electricty and fuel ..

whats the goal of this is you one does not even state a demand . going full circle . also nonstop airstrikes on gaza..

The Venezuelan Attorney General's Office issued an arrest warrant and will request a red alert from Interpol against former opposition representative Juan Guaido.

The United States announced that it has reached an agreement with Venezuela for the direct repatriation of Venezuelans to their country.

Uncritical support for the brave people of Palestine in their national struggle for liberation from the shackles of apartheid

Me waiting to see how Egypt will respond 👀

Israeli Opposition leader Yair Lapid calls for the establishment of a professional emergency government immediately to replace Netanyahu's Ultra-conservative one

I wish the Palestinian people good luck in their struggle, death to the oppressors! :israel-cool:

The small sliver of radlib who has 🇺🇦 🇵🇸 in their name is gonna evaporate

Its the Motorbikes it seems ... they deployed Bicyle swarm tactics.. genius move , makes them mobile across the fields in small sabotage troops , allowes strikes to the rear and fast entering of towns that then provide cover and hostages.

The videos of the grandmas posing with them are fucking sending me man wtf is war in the modern age

Damn, even the Saudis are distancing themselves from the Zionist entity

good thing history began yesterday morning at 6:29 am so I can fully support Israel in their fight against this unprovoked attack

September was world's hottest on record by an 'extraordinary' margin

Last month’s average global temperature was 0.93°C above the 1991-2020 average for September. This is the warmest margin above average for a month in 83 years of records kept by the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

“It’s just mind-blowing really,” said Copernicus Director Carlo Buontempo. “Never seen anything like that in any month in our records.”

Cabal of 'gay furry hackers' claims over 3,000 files stolen in NATO website breach

Hezbollah situation seems extremely measured thus far. Seeing it suggested that a ground invasion of Gaza would trigger serious hezbollah involvement though. And what else is Israel realistically going to do here? Settlers out for blood now, and leadership more than happy to oblige. But, you can’t rescue prisoners with air strikes so what other option is there? Hard to see a prisoner exchange being a palatable resolution for Israel. Is this just bound to escalate and draw hezbollah in?