Well Hexbear crew, looks like our analysis was correct on Israel running low on anti-missile defenses. Israel has between 10-12 days of anti-missile munitions without resupply from the U.S.

Link to separate discussion post & Link to the article

Per Washington Post:

Without resupplies from the United States or greater involvement by U.S. forces, some assessments project Israel can maintain its missile defense for 10 or 12 more days if Iran maintains a steady tempo of attacks, said an individual briefed on U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments, adding that as early as later this week, Israel’s systems may only be able to intercept a smaller proportion of missiles because of a need to ration defensive munitions. “They will need to select what they want to intercept,” said the individual, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. “The system is already overwhelmed.”

I remember reading about how an invasion of Iran by the US would have been much worse than what happened in Iraq. It would probably be more like Afghanistan because of Iran's size and mountainous terrain.

I don't think the USA is going to invade, but I strongly believe they will bomb, or at least try to bomb, some Iranian targets and cities.

Whispers of rumors that the 5th fleet that's stationed in Bahrain has been deployed to the seas. Whether or not this is a combat deployment or a bout of nuclear chicken brinksmanship, or even fake news will only be known with time.

AWACS aircraft, E-3 Sentry, accompanied by a KC-135 mid air refueling aircraft, over Italy on the way to the Middle East.

Most worrying aircraft deployment so far.

Missiles launched by Iran

“Macron: Trump's position on Iran appears to have changed since yesterday.“

You stupid fucking clown.

“ The Zionist Home Front Command urges settlers to enter shelters.”

Rant: It sucks that the only thing going "OK" in the world, geopolitics wise, is the war in Ukraine.

Everything else makes me depressed. What kind of world is worth living in where it's just shittier and shittier?

At this point I kinda WANT China to become the new hegemon, maybe then they wouldn't be such passive shits.

NSC meeting over

Video in link. Not good folks

⚡️⭕️ Israel bombs the Iranian capital Tehran

https://xcancel.com/ME_Observer_/status/1935056334891925720#m

Edit: people saying in the comments it's an old video so maybe fake

A BBC explanation

Many of those deciding to leave Tehran are posting images of their homes online, a poignant trend in Persian-language social media for those leaving their city behind.

Example on Tiktok - https://www.tiktok.com/@ayparamobina/photo/7516521667716304145

---

How can I copy and paste text from Tiktok? I don't have an account and it blocks me.

Everyone, while this is not news, If you've been following my posts over the past few months, you can see that I've been covering the US military buildup in the Middle East against Iran quite extensively. Seeing it all come to fruition after ringing the alarm bell for months, it's nightmarish, I'm feeling sick honestly. Everyone in Iran that uses this website, please stay safe.

Israeli sources are posting "I have no other country even if my land is burning" in Hebrew and Israeli flags (very sickening I know), along with a big exclusive story coming up. (All their exclusives have been accurate so far). Think this is it folks, the US is going to pull the trigger.

The office of former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad denies the reports about his assassination, says he is in good health.

• Telegram

I think Ahmadinejad still lives for free in the minds of many Israelis. In any case, last year Ahmadinejad reported that someone had sabotaged his car, and it was suspected that the main culprits were either Mosssad or the IRGC.

the thing is, even if iran gets an absolute victory, this would persuade people from being china's allies in the future

"china just stood there and watch as their second most important ally was invaded. now, do you want to anger the west without getting any support from your new ally. do you have even more resources and manpower than iran to protect yourself. if not, you should not delay the inevitable and kneel before usa"

So if (when) US gets officially and directly involved in attacking, my first assumption is it will look like the recent Yemen activity; lots of air strikes, stuff launched from boats.

But if the conflict deepens, I am curious to see what people think: would Trump admin do a draft for a ground invasion of Iran?

Ground invasion seems like a very poor idea generally, but since when has reality guided decision-making at the White House lately? This is total pie in the sky speculation, but the war regardless would be unpopular at home, and any move to deploy actual infantry even more so.

They’ve already spent the last few months getting the country used to crackdowns on protests, as well as using fed law enforcement and military assets to terrorize people unaccountably. They also have shown they give mostly zero fucks about courts and will shoot first and ask questions later at all times.

Given Trump’s scheme to use ICE to harass democrat/blue cities, if they did do a draft, why not use it to disproportionately grab liberal/left voters and box em up/sacrifice them to the mill? You could take all of the data they've stolen from agencies and had palatir compile to target it, just like they’ve been practicing with the immigration crackdown. Would be a good way to liquidate some opposition and chill what will otherwise be a potentially hot and spicy summer, etc. you could make draft dodging a method of removing citizenship of your enemies, or use the heightened tensions at the border to interdict people trying to flee. Trump could even couch it all in WW2 glorious war effort bullshit to try and give it some sort of shine.

Anyway, I suspect this is pretty far fetched, but would appreciate your counter points and corrections to help me discard this concept so I can move on to being anxious about one of the thousands of other grim things that loom on the horizon.