158

Image is of the damage caused by an Iranian Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile in Israel, causing dozens of injuries.


Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.

A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?

And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


top 50 comments
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[-] Minnesocialism@hexbear.net 30 points 1 hour ago

Current mood:

Nah but seriously a huge win! Congrats NYC!!!

[-] Quaxamilliom@hexbear.net 40 points 1 hour ago

Lets hope Mamandi doesn't turn into AOC once he takes office.

[-] Cheesewizzard@hexbear.net 9 points 27 minutes ago

He probably will. But hell, it's the only glimmer of hope in the US rn.

[-] SoyViking@hexbear.net 1 points 7 minutes ago

Is it certain he takes office? They can't ratfuck him somehow? They can't hand victory to the republicans? Washington can't orchestrate a military coup by the NYPD?

[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 30 points 1 hour ago

U.S. Special Envoy, Steve Witkoff: 'Even if Iran has already enriched uranium to 90% (weapons-grade), they cannot weaponize it because we destroyed the conversion facility at Esfahan — needed to 'convert' the material before enrichmemt and to 'metalicize' it after enrichment'

Witkoff clearly does not understand the nuclear weaponization process. Yes, the Esfahan site was being used to turn yellowcake into UF6 for enrichment. This 'first step' can now no longer be done, but it doesn't really matter, considering Iran already has ~400kg of 60% enriched uranium.

As for the last step in the weaponization process, which is turning the uranium hexafluoride (UF6) gas into uranium metal for use in a workable warhead, this process can quite easily be done in small covert laboratories and research sites, a dedicated facility is not needed, and Iran conducted many such tests in the early 2000's.

So, in short: As long as the centrifuges are intact (which seems to be the case), Iran can enrich its existing stockpile to 90% and create a warhead within months, provided that the blueprints of a weapon already exist.

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[-] Frogmanfromlake@hexbear.net 2 points 7 minutes ago

Idk why Colbert mentioned the Clyburn endorsement for Cuomo as if it would have helped him the same way it helped Hillary and Biden. It only worked then because of his influence in South Carolina, which isn’t going to matter at all in an election taking place in NYC.

[-] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 75 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

Zohran Mamdani fucking won. I have so much to say and yet no words at all after busting my ass for months on this campaign. The vibes at this victory party are unfathomable. There is so much hate and pain in this world, but in this room, for the first time in a long time, I can feel a better future at our fingertips.

[-] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 21 points 1 hour ago

Good job, but the fight is far from over. And if Mamdani can take any advice from the news mega, it's that he must nuke up and purge the reformers from his rank lest they jeopardize the revolutionary project. And he also needs to make deals with Russia and China to have a modern air force. And have good AA.

[-] thelastaxolotl@hexbear.net 28 points 1 hour ago

I am hearing that on his deathbed Andrew Cuomo received the light of Islam and unhesitatingly recited the Shahada. Even now he looks down on the Ummah from the gardens of Jannah. Truly there is no god but Allah, and Mohammad is his prophet!

[-] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 16 points 1 hour ago

Alhamdulillah brother Cuomo

[-] Euergetes@hexbear.net 19 points 1 hour ago

NYC has won my respect. i pray yall keep it

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 33 points 2 hours ago

Good job! I can see that you really poured a lot of effort into supporting this, and managed to succeed. That's great!

[-] FunkyStuff@hexbear.net 30 points 2 hours ago

Time to build the DSA missile silos!

[-] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 26 points 1 hour ago

make sure to get anti-air!

[-] TheModerateTankie@hexbear.net 10 points 1 hour ago

Congrats, and well done! 07

[-] Civility@hexbear.net 22 points 2 hours ago

party-blobparty-blobparty-blobparty-blobparty-parrotparty-parrot rat-salute Thank you for your service! rat-salute-2 party-parrotparty-parrotparty-blob party-blobparty-blobparty-blob

[-] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 22 points 2 hours ago

Hell fucking yes comrade. I want to apologize for my arguing the other day, congratulations to you and all of NYC

[-] heresiarch@hexbear.net 27 points 2 hours ago

I have spent a lot of time talking shit about NYC-DSA and I must now shut up and listen. Amazing work.

[-] DengistDonnieDarko@hexbear.net 26 points 2 hours ago

thank you for your hard work!!!!! fidel-salute what an incredible campaign from top to bottom, I haven't felt this optimistic in a very long time

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 27 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

Article from 2019 that covers stealth aircraft and cruise missiles, the possibility of detecting them, the possible kill chain, the differing Russian reaction in academic and public spheres, covers the F-117 shootdown, China building and heavily investing in stealth technologies, etc

Quite long, but worth a read given the events over the past few weeks given how influential it has been. It's an extensive overview. At least China is doing the right thing and heavily investing in stealth technologies to counter the NATO/western advantage here, other nations should follow. The article is written by "pro NATO" analysts, so ignore the political commentary (which is thankfully minimal). But it is a good overview and summary from a factual perspective. Provides arguments, addresses the common counter arguments, etc.

[-] smokeppb@hexbear.net 37 points 3 hours ago
[-] FunkyStuff@hexbear.net 35 points 2 hours ago

Mamdani isn't even mayor yet! Such crybabies.

[-] NephewAlphaBravo@hexbear.net 24 points 2 hours ago

more like @worse_usa

[-] OttoboyEmpire@hexbear.net 48 points 3 hours ago

Haggie Haberman: "Allies of President Trump are already gearing up to turn Mamdani into a national figure to attack and tether to other Democrats ahead of the midterms."

LFG

[-] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 19 points 2 hours ago

lmao Free press for Zohran, god they're gonna make him look so cool

[-] culpritus@hexbear.net 13 points 1 hour ago

It's the piped piper strategy coming back the other way. Hopefully Zohran can give the media enough of a show to maintain focus.

[-] TheLastHero@hexbear.net 26 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

I'm worried this is gonna make other Democrats look too cool lmao

[-] TheModerateTankie@hexbear.net 28 points 2 hours ago

capitalist-laugh "This maniac want's to lower your rent!"

9 out of 10 democrats running for office: "We condemn this extremist who doesn't represent the national democratic party! His policies have nothing to do with us!"

9 out of 10 democrats after they lose their elections: "We lost because of that damn extremist! We must move to the right to appeal to centrists!"

[-] iie@hexbear.net 27 points 3 hours ago

I’m looking for a good in-depth writeup on the strategic significance of Iran for the US, if anyone has any suggestions

[-] FunkyStuff@hexbear.net 15 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

I am illiterate so I don't know what a writeup is, but Ben Norton made an excellent 1 hour video explaining the entire context. He breaks it down into 8 main reasons and explains why Trump bombed Iran:

  • Maintain US hegemony in West Asia (aka the Middle East)
  • Destroy the anti-colonial Axis of Resistance, making possible the total colonization of Palestine
  • Prevent Iran from ever developing nuclear capabilities
  • Overthrow or at least weaken Iran’s independent, revolutionary government
  • Scare other countries in the region that may seek to move away from the US and the dollar (especially the Gulf monarchies)
  • Preserve the petrodollar system, ensuring global demand for the US dollar
  • Destabilize BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, divide the Global South, and disrupt the multipolar project
  • Break up the Iran-Russia-China partnership, with the ultimate goal of isolating Beijing

So, answering your previous question in the thread, he thinks it's both about oil and geo-strategy. Both are incredibly relevant here and are inseparable to the essence of the conflict.

edit: Linked it in a comment below, but I'll link it again. Here's the Brookings Institute's Which Path to Persia? which explains exactly why and how the US should engage with Iran to protect imperialist interests.

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[-] OttoboyEmpire@hexbear.net 61 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago)

Socialism in One City update: ~~my Crossword subscription service, NYTimes, informs me that with ~~54pct~~ ~~62pct~~ ~~81pct~~ 90pct of votes counted into the first round, Zohran leads Cuomo 43 to 36. 🙏~~ 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

[-] sewer_rat_420@hexbear.net 40 points 3 hours ago
[-] FunkyStuff@hexbear.net 32 points 3 hours ago

Not gonna be happy until he pleads guilty at the revolutionary tribunal.

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this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2025
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