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submitted 3 months ago by mozz@mbin.grits.dev to c/politics@lemmy.world

I have no idea about William Hill. But the odds they describe sound about right to me, and the Nate Silver thing and the summary of Trump’s speech sound informative

inb4 BIDEN COPIUM HAHAHA etc and etc

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[-] ptz@dubvee.org 209 points 3 months ago

As encouraging as this may sound, it doesn't change anything. VOTE!

[-] knightly@pawb.social 54 points 3 months ago

If voting were sufficient then we wouldn't be in this mess.

So yes, do vote, but you have to do more than that, too.

[-] PunnyName@lemmy.world 50 points 3 months ago

If your vote didn't matter, try wouldn't be trying to make it harder (or blocking efforts to make it easier).

VOTE

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[-] conditional_soup@lemm.ee 19 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

I've basically given up worrying about federal politics; I STILL VOTE IN FEDERAL ELECTIONS, but it's clear they're too solidly captured by special interests to do much there. I've shifted my focus to local/municipal politics and found a lot more success there.

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[-] Sanctus@lemmy.world 97 points 3 months ago

You think everyone is just tired of this shit? Both these dudes are older than my grandfather when he died. I am fucking tired boss. It shouldn't be this crazy just to get sensible candidates who are actual human beings. It really shouldn't.

[-] mozz@mbin.grits.dev 85 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

If only the well wasn’t poisoned with REPLACE BIDEN NOW OR WORLD WILL END ALSO KAMALA SUCKS bullshit, 5-10 times every hour, some of it coming yesterday still with fresh Cyrillic in its video description, we could have an adult conversation about what a good Democratic strategy would be, so that the end of the world doesn’t get elected

[-] newthrowaway20@lemmy.world 24 points 3 months ago

God yes I've seen so much of this lately.

[-] mozz@mbin.grits.dev 17 points 3 months ago

It’s like a fuckin typhoon

[-] hperrin@lemmy.world 12 points 3 months ago

Trump wouldn’t be the end of the world. Don’t be so dramatic. He would be the end of The United States, and at most the human race. But there’s basically no chance he could destroy all life on earth.

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[-] Diplomjodler3@lemmy.world 35 points 3 months ago

Absolutely correct. But even if the choice is a shitty one it's also a very easy one. If you want fascism, vote for Trump. If not, vote for Biden.

[-] mozz@mbin.grits.dev 33 points 3 months ago

Or whoever the Democratic nominee is

There’s a perfectly reasonable conversation to be had about replacing Biden being a better strategy. 10 seconds of thinking will lead one to realize that figuring out the strategy, and then switching to it, is way better than dumping Biden and then figuring out the strategy afterwards. And, it’s notable that all the same outlets who are openly hostile to democracy in the United States were the ones that were pushing so hard on the backwards version of the strategy, until the more gullible parts of the Democratic Party apparatus eventually picked it up and started running with it.

The forward strategy is still fine. The loud preemptive drumbeat of hard criticism of Kamala that is now emerging, though, should hopefully serve as a big loud blaring fucking wake up call to anyone who is sincerely interested in defeating Trump who is still echoing the backwards version.

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[-] Freefall@lemmy.world 33 points 3 months ago

I'm not voting for either candidate, I am voting for the people around Biden and against people that support P2025. Pretty simple.

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[-] lagomorphlecture@lemm.ee 81 points 3 months ago

I can't keep up. Is Trump losing or is Biden losing? It changes every 5 minutes.

[-] tiefling@lemmy.blahaj.zone 146 points 3 months ago
[-] lagomorphlecture@lemm.ee 23 points 3 months ago

You got me there.

[-] Soulg@sh.itjust.works 9 points 3 months ago

Biden was and will be another good president. Stop allowing perfection to be the enemy of good.

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[-] jj4211@lemmy.world 38 points 3 months ago

The answer is no one knows. If you care, vote and don't be complacent. Even if the news decides they think they know, they still don't know.

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[-] SkyezOpen@lemmy.world 20 points 3 months ago

They're competing to be unelectable and both winning.

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[-] normalexit@lemmy.world 14 points 3 months ago

The person losing more is the one that most recently opened their mouth and reminded voters who they are.

[-] gamermanh@lemmy.dbzer0.com 12 points 3 months ago

While it looks like half the country is split between this dipshits, in reality the majority of Americans agree on a shockingly high number of issues.

One of those issues is that both options are fucking awful, so who's "losing" harder is matter of witchcraft at the moment as things violently spiral into the ridiculous

[-] Asafum@feddit.nl 13 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

in reality the majority of Americans agree on a shockingly high number of issues.

And it's exactly why I say this every single day in some comment or another: I FUCKING HATE PROPAGANDISTS!!!

What you said is absolutely true and without the likes of Fucker Carlson, Sean Hamface, and Laura Inbread, we'd actually have some fucking semblance of unity and solidarity... But no, we get divide and conquer... Hate hate hate hate. Fox primetime is literally the "two minutes hate" from 1984 with an ever changing Goldstein.

[-] CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world 10 points 3 months ago

Biden is not really that awful as an option, as far as it goes. If he is in decline, he steps down after the win. It's not like Biden as a choice is comparable to donnie as a choice. They are night and day.

Now, trying to sell Biden as a product to "independents" (aka, the low info) because we sell politicians like the way we sell consumer goods like fizzy sugar water - that's not so great, since the bothsiderists keep acting like they are equally bad options.

[-] InternetUser2012@lemmy.today 10 points 3 months ago

Just vote, volunteer to help give rides to people that wouldn't be able to vote without it. If everyone votes, there will be no chance for the racist rapist with 34 felonies that has said on record that he will be a dictator.

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[-] BruceTwarzen@lemm.ee 61 points 3 months ago

Not because he's a fascist child dilldler, because of his last speech.

[-] RememberTheApollo_@lemmy.world 37 points 3 months ago

The people that vote for trump don’t care.

Christ, they wear diapers and put fake ear bandages on. You think they give a damn about what’s actually right?

[-] Schorsch@feddit.org 9 points 3 months ago

Trumpism is nothing less than a fascist cult.

[-] Bluefalcon@discuss.tchncs.de 33 points 3 months ago

Look what was the big things coming out of the RNC.

  1. A bulldog
  2. The troll that protects the water hazards on Trump's courses (Kimberly Guilfoyle).
  3. The shocked remains of Florida pedo (Matt Gaetz).
  4. Racist, washed up, whats to fuck his daughter (Hogan).
  5. The UFC (Dana White).
  6. Shit kid rock song
  7. The most gay entrance you could do outside of Vegas or Broadway (Trump).

No one cares except MAGA country. It is boring.

[-] demizerone@lemmy.world 22 points 3 months ago

Don't forget the crashing of Grindr in Milwaukee

[-] Bluefalcon@discuss.tchncs.de 10 points 3 months ago

That was probably the most exciting part of the week. Republicans being free to be themselves until the servers crashed.

[-] CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world 10 points 3 months ago

It'd be funny if Grindr were to have some "leaks" and some of the hateful closet cases were outed.

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[-] ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works 26 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Sorry but "BIDEN COPIUM HAHAHA" is right.

The William Hill odds of a Trump victory in November lengthened from 2/5 (71.4 percent) on Thursday before his convention address to 8/15 (65.2 percent) on Friday.

Donald Trump remains the overwhelming favorite

This same agency is saying Kamala Harris already has better odds of becoming President than Joe Biden does, even without a decision to resign from Biden.

[-] mozz@mbin.grits.dev 23 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Paying out higher (better) odds means you think they’re less likely to win

Edit: They were initially confused about how betting odds work, now they’re confused about how outcomes work.

William Hill is saying that Trump has a 65% chance to win, and the Democrat has roughly a 35% chance to win, and that Democrat is much more likely to be Kamala than Biden. There is absolutely no conditional involved in this odds presentation that would imply who has a better chance of beating Trump, as separated from the question of how likely the Democrats are to replace Biden.

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[-] just_another_person@lemmy.world 20 points 3 months ago

Okay, Democrats, what's the play here then? Better ride this news with some really strong moves to amplify the impact. Don't fuck it up, PLEASE.

[-] Freefall@lemmy.world 20 points 3 months ago

Expecting the Dems to do a 180 and actually not fuck up is a bold expectation. JFC we need more agile leadership...

[-] DragonTypeWyvern@midwest.social 12 points 3 months ago

Dems: We have heard your complaints. We have elder abused Biden until he agreed to step down and make way for a younger contender:

Hillary Clinton!

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[-] AllNewTypeFace@leminal.space 18 points 3 months ago

Newsweek seems to be the only publication making these claims. We’ve had some 2-3 weeks of Newsweek reportage of the Trump campaign floundering, its wheels falling off, and it circling the drain. Given Newsweek’s right-wing ownership and recently poor reputation for facts, it does feel like an op (perhaps to lull progressive campaigners into a false sense of security?)

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[-] LEDZeppelin@lemmy.world 18 points 3 months ago

CNN, NBC, and NPR are working overtime to glorify second coming of Lord Agolf Shitler

[-] Etterra@lemmy.world 11 points 3 months ago

Polls mean nothing, vote as if the end of the human race was at hand.

[-] Grandwolf319@sh.itjust.works 11 points 3 months ago

So I think we are in a post 2016 news cycle so even though an assassination attempt is kind of historic, it’s not that big of a deal in 2024 when I’m sure next week we will get another huge earth shattering news. Maybe this time Putin finally croaks.

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[-] CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world 10 points 3 months ago

Let's all hope that donnie's chances slump to zero.

[-] wieson@feddit.org 9 points 3 months ago

So when he droned on about Hannibal lecter, was he trying to talked about Hannibal Barca?

(I don't want to listen to the speech)

[-] Furbag@lemmy.world 20 points 3 months ago

No. He literally thought that Hannibal Lecter, the fictional murderer and cannibal from the film "The Silence of the Lambs", was both dead and also a great person. And no, the person who portrayed the character of Hannibal Lecter, Anthony Hopkins, isn't dead either. Also, that was a speech from a few weeks ago I think, and not the RNC speech, which was also unhinged and devolved into a Trump rally attacking Biden and prominent leftists rather than the "call for unity from a changed man" we were promised by bad faith right wing media outlets.

Trump's brain is just as much a pile of mush as Biden's is at this point, but at least I know in the moments of lucidity that Biden has, he's effective at the job and does the right thing. Can't say the same for the 34 time convicted felon running for re-election after he failed to steal the last one.

[-] Buddahriffic@lemmy.world 11 points 3 months ago

IMO the senility of either candidate is beside the point because they both have teams that will keep things running when they can't. Hell, those teams keep things running even when the president can because it's not a job one person can do alone.

The difference is Trump's team is openly planning fascism while Biden's team has to at least pretend to be opposed to that or risk more people accepting that neither party wants to oppose the ruler class.

The only time a president being lucid matters is when the president disagrees with their team, that disagreement matters for the people, and the president is on the good side of the disagreement.

And in this case, I can't see any disagreement a lucid Trump has with his team having a good option for the prime or any disagreement a lucid Biden has with his team having a worse outcome than Trump's team gaining power.

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[-] Kusimulkku@lemm.ee 9 points 3 months ago

Over the same period, Biden's odds of securing reelection later this year deteriorated substantially to just 12/1 (7.7 percent) as the president faces pressure from within his own party to withdraw from the race.

Donald Trump remains the overwhelming favorite, but his odds have lengthened a touch – now 8/15 to return to the White House.

Yeah...

[-] thatsjustgreat@lemmy.world 8 points 3 months ago

Trump’s dopey fascist face kinda looks like the Halloween 4 mask.

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this post was submitted on 19 Jul 2024
347 points (92.6% liked)

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