Hezbollah got 12 of those missiles during 2020, so it's possible. But I think if it happens, there will be restrictions on the targets.

Yeah having to respond to every single strike could put Russia on an escalatory path that is undesirable, to say the least. So I admire the restraint shown.

On another note, the full on copium shown by pro Russian social media channels has been both entertaining and a bit embarrassing. First the ballistic missile attacks were done using Ukrainian made missiles and all shot down, then they were ATACMS missiles but it was fine because they all got shot down, then it was only 7/8 that got shot down, but the pictures of the destroyed 92N6E fire control radar from the S-400 are fake/from Crimea/from an S-300 system. And then after the videos got released showing multiple impacts, crickets. Some of them act as if the Russian government is incapable or lying, or the S-400 is some kind of wunderwaffen that can't be destroyed. You know it's bad when even the Russian Air Force linked "FighterBomber" telegram account is calling it out:

Now, or a little later, there will undoubtedly be a video of the attacks, which everyone already has, except maybe the [Russian] MoD, where it will be difficult to identify the attacks in any other way than ATACMS and count them, but you can say that "And these are the other 8 ballistic missiles. And we shot down 8, leave me alone." But this is just me thinking, it is clear that no one will comment on anything...

The attacks on oil infrastructure are performed by Ukrainian UAVs so far, so the US is not directly involved in that in the way that the US is involved in ATACMS attacks.

Yeah, and there's quite convincing evidence (in my eyes) to suggest that these were in fact ATACMS attacks, with a direct hit on an S-400 air defence system and cluster munitions strike on a Russian airbase in Kursk. I'll post that in the new megathread.

They got a Lion, it's definitely worth it. 1 lion for 10 000 soldiers is the best trade deal in the history of trade deals.

At this point, this website for me is just the body that carries this thread.

Same. I can now fulfill my eternal dream about posting about Marmite and missiles. Pure bliss really.

Except when the missiles kill innocent people, that's terrible of course.

Russia only has a few of these missiles' and also the 'US is going to reverse engineer it from the scraps at Yuzhmash'. Dnepropetrovsk has at least one Patriot system, which failed to intercept it.

Might be true at this point in time that Russia only have a few operational Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) weapons, but they can easily make more, of Oreshnik and other types that we may not know about (Putin mentioned work on a whole arsenal of medium and intermediate range systems in his second speech).

There's no need for reverse engineering, the United States has envisioned and prototyped similar systems in the past, based off of MIRV capable Trident SLBMs and Minuteman III ICBMs. MIRV kinetic penetrators, and tungsten submunitions were suggested. Now the question is if the US would ever give Ukraine a CPS weapon, and in my opinion, I cannot see that happening at all. There is no way Ukraine is going to get given such a weapon by the United States.

There's no chance for the patriot system to intercept it as when the missile is in one piece, it's flying above it's engagement envelope. By the time the MIRVs are deployed, you've got 6 re entry vehicles travelling at Mach 10+, and once they deploy their submunitions, 36 munitions travelling at Mach 10+. It's simply too much to intercept, too many projectiles moving too fast.

He thinks the new missile is called Oreshnik because it looks like a hazel flower when it comes down.

It absolutely does look like that, I see it now.

More ballistic missile attacks by Ukraine against Russia in Kursk were reported on within the last hour, with an alleged simultaneous UAV attack against Russian oil assets in Kaluga Oblast (information is more sketchy on that at this time). There is audible air defence activity being heard in Kursk. Pro Ukrainian sources are claiming that these attacks in Kursk made use of US made and targeted ATACMS missiles, as expected.

Twitter source

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I'd argue there has already been some transfer of technology to DPRK, with pictures of Kim Jong Un with Lancet drones and talking about wanting to our them into serial production within North Korea Itself, and the recent testing of a new North Korean ICBM with a potential maximum range of over 15 000km.

There was footage of what was likely a ballistic missile impact or interception, with a sonic boom, a visible projectile on a terminal trajectory, and resulting explosion. Pro Russia social media channels posted it as footage of "air defence systems working Kursk". The larger question is if it was an ATACMS missile, a Ukraine made ballistic missile like Hrіm-2, or a missile from their Soviet stockpiles such as Tochka-U. Since both sides have certain interests, Ukraine in expanding the war as pointed out, it's likely we will not know the answer to that question anytime soon. Russia could also have an interest in not admitting to it being a ATACMS strike, as committing to responding to every single attack could put Russia on an escalation trajectory that is undesirable, to say the least. You can also see this in how Russia says that their air defence systems shoot everything down, even when there is evidence to the contrary, done in an attempt to minimise escalation.

That quote is really cool in context and I wish more world leaders would speak like that..