[-] geikei@hexbear.net 19 points 1 week ago

I have read from some PLA watchers that last time after the UN arms embargo ended and wasnt renewed deals with China werent made for a couple of reason. Yeah China being cautious about gulf states, israel and america freaking out was a reason (it was what 2019/2020?) but equaly important is that Iran, beyond being very unenthusiastic and flip floppy about joining sides and falling into chinas sphere of influence and also being difficult with the payment system or other possible geopolitical stuff they could offer China, they really wanted to attach Tech Transfer and co-production stuff to the deals. Also they didnt want to give air defense and air force built up a priority resources wise compared to the money and focus purring to missile program, nuclear program and proxis founding. Plus this was pre Ukraine war and they drifted towards Russian systems and deals.

Idk what China is open to giving them but assuming Iran acts with the desperation, commitment and urgency its position requires and ditch some of their delusions and offer and fasttrack some stuff in non military apsects im sure they can get some stuff.

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 20 points 2 weeks ago

They played a role in couping Khan but the military stooges put in place still moved the country closer to China than ever before. No matter how far cia ops and bribes go in Pakistan the sheer size and dependency and need for China in almost every way still wins out so Pakistan can and does act against US interests

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 19 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

You should take better notes of the current and future balance of forces and capabilities in the pacific theater. Your scenario hinges on the assumption that the US will have the capability to militarily cripple and destroy chinas economy and infrastructure while taking massive losses in a calculus where the non replenishable damage inflicted on US forces and force projection is lesser in importance as well as duration and impact by what they manage to inflict on China.

This calculus is barely true right now, let alone in 5 or 10 years from now. No matter who sits in or out of it, soon the hard military reality will be that even if the US went full kamikaze mode attempting maximum damage on Chinese mainland with the full might of what they can realistically muster in the region, they will still be lose the exchange and basicaly sacrifice the entire military arm of global imperialism to manage infastructure and military damage that china will rebuild in 5 years. Any attempt to do what you describe will more likely result in a decisive Chinese victory , which together with the amount of US loses and the context of a likely takeover of Taiwan triggering or following this , will practicaly dislodge the US empire from SEA and cripple its force projection capabilities and global standing for a generation.

The thought that f-35s and B21s and US missiles can be employed in large enough scales and depth close or within mainland china to seriously damage chinese cities and industry, even if they went full sacrifice mode, will be laughable within the decade if it isnt already. At best they could content with a chinese blockade of taiwan right now with ambiguous results.

If the grand plan china should be affraid of is that everyone will stand around and watch while the US sacrifices hundreds of gen4.5+ aircraft and a good chunk of their carriers , destroyers and subs in order to take out an equal chunk of chinas (who will rebuild and replenish them about 5 times faster ) along with idk 5% of major industrial and military facilities in a single chinese province while every us base east of guam turns into a smoking crater then ok i guess. There are more industrial facilities that are or can engage in military production and more major energy and infrastructure nodes in idk Guangdong alone than there are missiles and bombs in the US navy and air force inventory.

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 19 points 1 month ago

PAF most likely did not destroy any S-400 battery. Any claims that it did arent any more substantiated than Indian claims that Chinese HQ-9 or HQ-17 systems were destroyed. Actualy my understanding is that the S-400s performed quite well and its the one system India immediately approached Russia after the conflict for more orders

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 19 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

A bit of a tangent, but the funniest part to me is that nobody (important) in China gave a shit about DeepSeek until prestigious universities in the West like MIT talked about how much of an innovation it was.

Maybe because the release of their Deepseek's actual "Groundbreaking" new model that stirred up a storm in the west and the stormed stirred up in the west, the "deepseek" moment lets say, all happened within what 1-2 weeks at most? How quickly would you possibly expect the CPC, which isnt known for rushing onto news and trends and outward narrative changes fast, to start adopting and promoting Deepseek. Its pretty crazy to go on one of your rants when the simple and obvious answer is that we cant possibly know how and how quickly China and the CPC would have reacted to Deepseek without the west losing their shit first simply because the West lost their shit almost immediately on arival. And its not indicative of anything that China and Chinese officials, seeing their western counterparts and the relevant big players and media in that field along with relevant market indicators, being extremely shook and vocal about Deepseek within days sped up the "looking into it" thing from higher ups.

Also you actualy believe the chinese wouldnt have caught up and recognize they have produced domesticaly an industry leading product and made a huge leap in a high tech sector that they actualy have had specific focus on? That it would have gone unnoticed or ignored for months without the west freaking out about it? Come on now

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 19 points 2 months ago

The vast majority of chinese exports to the US arent even viable after a certain level of tarrifs. Maybe after 50%. Volumes will grind to a halt unless they can be redirected en mass through lower tarrif countries and the US even allows that

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 19 points 7 months ago

Regarding countries like Iran or even Syria i agree. And we have seen a new Chinese anti-drone laser based AD in the recent Khamenei sermon. But Lebanon is at the doorstep of the US and Israel and in a very unstable situation, with the Lebanese army and civil structure quite infiltrated with west sympathisers and even Mossad. Giving modern AD systems to Hezbollah carries a ton of risk of them falling into the wrong hands eventualy. Especially since these are the same AD systems China will relly upon in any pacific or Taiwanese straight conflict in the coming years if it happens. Not that if those dangers werent present China would be giving modern military tech and systems away in "US designated terrorist groups" but its a big hurdle that makes that convo impossible

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 19 points 1 year ago

Apparently Miyazaki took it to heart and reworked the manga story to pass the historical materialism Takahata check (Movie was made while the manga was less than midway through)

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 19 points 1 year ago

China doesnt decide what EU countries to get bold with, they are responding to interest and oppeness to investing and collaboration from EU countries. They wont reject much. If Germany, Portugal or idk Italy were as or more willing then China would have the same engagment as them. Same with the ME that they work with a lot vs less so. Hungary being the less anti-China EU country or better put the EU country that tries to take a more balanced stance in the emerging multipolar world only reflects bad on the rest of the EU

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 20 points 2 years ago

welp if the rojava compradors will have their "land" and manpower used by the US and their bases to facilitate and safeguard a genocide nearby without pushing back on the slightest they are part of the "real" axis of evil and every iranian drone or paramilitary attack on sdf territory is deserved

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 19 points 2 years ago

No lmao. Have they even make an press release condemning Israel or supporting Palestine? On the contrary the US will operate out of their bases in adf territory to attack Syria, Iran and Lebanon if they escelate to any more direct involvement. They have done so in the past again and again. They have even collaborated militarily and intelligence wise with Israel in its anti-syrian and anti-iran actions

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 19 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

Like i comment elsewhere a very large part of Chinese income inequality is the huge rural-urban divide. All countries have it but its an order of magnitude worse in China so there are basicaly 2 different countries within China . Having 300 million people in the biggest cities earning western levels of income and 300 million people in rural small towns and villages earning a fraction of that skews the metric a lot EVEN tho life in rural ereas is also much cheaper and without taking into account that this is a symptom of the rapid urbanization and mpsernization that will probably uplift the latter group like it did the former

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geikei

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