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submitted 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) by WeUnite@lemm.ee to c/til@lemmy.world

Erica Chenoweth initially thought that only violent protests were effective. However after analyzing 323 movements the results were opposite of what Erica thought:

For the next two years, Chenoweth and Stephan collected data on all violent and nonviolent campaigns from 1900 to 2006 that resulted in the overthrow of a government or in territorial liberation. They created a data set of 323 mass actions. Chenoweth analyzed nearly 160 variables related to success criteria, participant categories, state capacity, and more. The results turned her earlier paradigm on its head — in the aggregate, nonviolent civil resistance was far more effective in producing change.

If campaigns allow their repression to throw the movement into total disarray or they use it as a pretext to militarize their campaign, then they’re essentially co-signing what the regime wants — for the resisters to play on its own playing field. And they’re probably going to get totally crushed.

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[-] frezik@midwest.social 23 points 1 week ago

The conclusions are more nuanced than the headlines. Her data shows that violent and non-violent methods often work in tandem. It tends to be different factions of the same movement using different methods, and they tend not to like each other. The more violent faction says the peaceful faction is naive, while the peaceful faction finds violent methods unconscionable.

More people will tend to join the peaceful faction, perhaps because it's easier to join the side that isn't asking morally gray things of them. However, the violent side plays a more direct role in undermining the system of oppression.

[-] chicken@lemmy.dbzer0.com 12 points 1 week ago

Her data shows that violent and non-violent methods often work in tandem

Does it? I read the whole interview in the OP post and it does not seem like this would be the opinion of the researcher:

The finding is that civil resistance campaigns often lead to longer-term reforms and changes that bring about democratization compared with violent campaigns. Countries in which there were nonviolent campaigns were about 10 times likelier to transition to democracies within a five-year period compared to countries in which there were violent campaigns — whether the campaigns succeeded or failed. This is because even though they “failed” in the short term, the nonviolent campaigns tended to empower moderates or reformers within the ruling elites who gradually began to initiate changes and liberalize the polity.

How do you justify the claim that her data shows the usefulness of violent civil resistance campaigns?

[-] einkorn@feddit.org 6 points 1 week ago
[-] Crankenstein@lemmy.world 5 points 1 week ago

Pretty much what all anarchist theory has been proposing, at least when it comes to revolutionary action.

[-] DMCMNFIBFFF@lemmy.world 1 points 1 week ago

I suppose that's more sabotage than actual violence.

[-] Crankenstein@lemmy.world 6 points 1 week ago

This is about what I expected of a study like this.

[-] callouscomic@lemm.ee 3 points 1 week ago

So.... Saw Gerrera versus the Rebel Alliance.

[-] Squizzy@lemmy.world 2 points 1 week ago

The rebels were just better functioning and more democratic. Saw was an idealistic lunatic. The rebels were idealistic prgamatists, mostly.

[-] Diva@lemmy.ml 1 points 1 week ago

I dunno Count Dooku was kinda cooking until the states theocratic gestapo stopped him

[-] glitching@lemmy.ml 1 points 1 week ago

yeah, there has to be an "...or else" component

this post was submitted on 11 Jun 2025
71 points (86.6% liked)

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