https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116365796713313030
https://xcancel.com/PressTV/status/2041646648506437903#m
https://xcancel.com/DropSiteNews/status/2041647382090108974#m
🚨 US PRESIDENT TRUMP: “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” – a “double sided CEASEFIRE.”
🔸Trump says he will pause planned strikes on Iran for two weeks after talks with Pakistan’s leadership, conditioning the move on Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
▫️The pause is contingent on the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.”🔸Trump claims the U.S. has “met and exceeded all Military objectives.”
🔸Says a “10 point proposal from Iran” is now a “workable basis” for a broader deal.
🔸Adds the sides are “very far along with a definitive Agreement” on long-term peace.
🔸He described the two-week window as time to “finalize and consummate” a wider agreement to end the war.
:kelly: Taco Tuesday
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/7/iran-war-live-trump-warns-of-devastating-attacks-as-deal-deadline-nears
Fell for it again award goes to Iran. When you finally have them by the balls you don't do this. If Trump sees you backing down he takes it as a sign he can negotiate in bad faith and lie and cheat you out of your demands. He now knows your line and what he thinks he can do to violate right up to it again and again.
I somehow knew they would fold in the end. Nothing ever happens gang wins again it seems.
rant
And I suppose it's understandable but it's also why I don't see the empire falling anytime soon. Everyone they target, even the big regional players like Iran folds under pressure every single time. Even when they don't get what they want, they don't lose either. America won't be seen as humiliated by this affair at all really given it didn't last long enough. Because everyone is averse to standing up too strongly to the the US.If the US cannot get Iran to hand over or further entomb the nuclear materials I predict a special forces raid to attempt to seize them once Iran stands down its guard. Iran will complain but ultimately just go back to enriching again rather than closing the strait again if the US succeeds with more planning and better surprise.
It's frustrating to have been so close to the empire really feeling some real pain, real end of empire hours only for old Donny to wriggle his way out of it.
https://xcancel.com/Is_Not_Brian/status/2041719256057065752
I mean, this all depends on whether re-staffing the abandoned/destroyed military bases is part of the deal. If the bases stay closed the empire is genuinely diminished. And that's a good thing for our ability to operate in domestic politics. A left leader while we have bases open in S Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Poland is social fascists/democratic at the very best. If the US is forced out of the region in anyway its a progression towards the end of the empire
Y’all need to chill, take a step back and reassess the situation with a level head once more info is available. If you think you’ve anything to teach the IRGC about American mendaciousness and having eyes on your back when negotiating with them, you need to check your chauvinism pronto
what did you expect? for the iranian people to nail themselves to the cross bearing the weight of the empire's sins? the fact is, iran has the us by the balls right now and i expect the final deal to accord. no matter what, this affair weakens the empire. whether the ceasefire deal is accepted or declined or accepted then violated, the empire is on the back foot. you can't ask for more than that.
Iran's initial posturing was correct. Only material forced dearmament can provide security for them against the empire and its entity. Those two don't follow agreements and they don't stop constantly escalating pressure. The entity's path to death is a drawn out conflict. The empire's path to withdrawal is more complex but losing all regional assets is a good start.
This all has to be compared to the base reality of Iran's capabilities, something we can't say much about except that they have been doing very well and seem to have the upper hand regionally.
Looking at the 10 points of Iran's demands, I think it is unlikely they will receive them. So over the next two weeks we will find out more accurately whether this is Iran opting for the prior status quo (albeit with weakened regional encirclement), which is only a good idea if they were at risk of collapse, or whether this is a strategic pause and they plan to resume.
I think this misses the larger point and the fact that Iran’s victory is contingent on a few things.
No single war will bring down an empire, certainly not with one single country. I think you overstate what an extended war would do for Iran if Iran continues to push after the US has tapped out. Right now Iran has the moral, economic, diplomatic, and military upper hand. But if the US backs out and Iran continues to escalate, then — besides undermining Iran’s escalation ladder which has been foundational in the conflict, and only works if you de-escalate when concessions are granted — countries like China will eventually, maybe rapidly, lose sympathy as their own economies suffer. It doesn’t matter if China’s energy is secure when their main country of export has a collapsed economy.
Iran has everything to gain by pausing the conflict where Iran has established deterrence, moral superiority and legitimacy, physical destruction of much of the surrounding military bases (and ideological destruction of their utility to the host countries), etc. Those things only erode if the war evolves into something easily portrayed as an offensive war by Iran, which in its current state it is not.
Moreover, Iran needs nukes for genuine deterrence. It can’t do that during a full-scale war. It is better to take the victory of this battle and immediately begin a nuclear weapons program.
The US still has nukes and still could use them if Iran doesn’t allow them any means of backing out, even when the US is clearly conceding.
Yeah duh.
When? Where? You never say what I overstated.
Who cares about moral upper hand? Diplomatically they do not have the upper hand, that is firmly a soft power question and they are at a massive disadvantage. They are surrounded by comprador regimes and very little has changed diplomatically overall except for the fact that the US itself is embarrassing itself. Militarily, they are doing well given the preparation the US has done and what it has committed to. Whether they simply have the upper hand or not is not something you or I know.
This doesn't address anything I have said. Iran faces an existential threat. Pointing out that there is another disadvantage to escalation (1) doesn't really touch on what I've said and (2) does not mean the existential threat goes away with "deescalation" on Iran's part. I am sure there is calculous going on regarding material support and relationships regarding the oil crisis, that's kind of... obvious?
And a failed state Iran from status quo isolation and disruption would make all of this moot as well. China lets the US destroy countries. It provides support, and valuable support, but it doesn't take a direct confrontational stance. It could let Iran simply die under a variety of realistic circumstances. Trying to simply appease China until death would not exactly be strategic, precisely because they are currently tied to a US export economy. This is a push and pull and there is no indication that Iran has pulled or pushed too far.
Watch Israel bomb them within a week
Literally who cares
Only in the form of their military gains and ability to impose an oil crisis. These are meaningful but they're also what I've already mentioned and the former is what would be held back in a ceasefire.
Yes.
For which people in them? I don't think most common people in Bahrain thought of the US bases as protecting them. These comprador regimes do not rule by popular will. The bases are there as a cost to these countries, everyone knows this. It's something for the benefit of the US. Maybe it makes repairs modestly easier for the jets the Saudis use to bomb water infrastructure and children.
Those things only erode if the war evolves into something easily portrayed as an offensive war by Iran, which in its current state it is not.
So then they'd have been golden to continue. Accepting this offer means they would be portrayed as "restarting" the fight even when inevitably it is the US or Israel that do so - or when they refuse Iran's terms.
Though really I don't think trying to figure out angles by which to be portrayed really matter in this propaganda environment. Iran is already vilified in bourgeois media where the repeated imperial war crimes are either ignored or supported implicitly. Their critical angle is solely about the US not winning and the material costs.
It couldn't do that for decades and decades of not being in full scale war because it played exactly this sort of diplomacy game. But destabilizing the entity would assist that effort, and so would decreasing their capacity to bomb Iranian facilities and assassinate Iranian scientists.
This assumes they enjoy a substantial period of peace and sufficient infrastructure after signing any still-hypothetical agreements. This war started with the US attacking Iran literally during diplomatic negotiations. There can be no certainty that it actually stops, it depends entirely on the material state of all parties, something very difficult to assess, except that we can see the entity on the back foot defensively.
The US has had nukes the entire time it has watched its military bases get bombed and evacuated. The US had nukes to use against every country it has targeted for the last 80 years, the vast majority of them not having nukes of their own, including with US faction losses, as in Cuba or Vietnam. This has always been a risk and it does not mean that this is a good time to "deescalate".
In short, I stand by what I said.
Then why insist on now-or-never? The thing you overstate is the iron law that any agreement at all is incompatible with disarmament of the empire.
Even if you are correct that the US will regroup and continue, it will be years at least before it is able. Years that will only strengthen Iran’s position and weaken that of the US. Iran is already on a winning path. I admit that I believe that things have fundamentally changed and that Iran will continue to build up its defenses, develop nuclear weapons, increase diplomatic efforts with regional and major powers, etc. All things that make future US aggression less and less fruitful than it was before March.
These things matter unless you dismiss ideology, propaganda generally as immaterial. It matters whether other the US or its allies can rhetorically justify the things that they want to do; though obviously this is not rigidly deterministic.
idk I think it depends on what the IRGC views as its war goal. They not only reminded the whole Western world why they can't go to war with Iran, they boosted oil prices, secured rents on crossing the strait, and blew up a bunch of literally irreplaceable strategic assets in the region. The aftermath here, in terms of states, is Iran in a much stronger position than they were before the war in some ways, although the destroyed factories, infrastructure, and lost lives are a bitter pill to swallow, it's not like the Iranians are at fault for any of that, all they could do once the US pulled the trigger was shoot back with everything they had.
The real check of their "fell for it again" award status will be over the next year. If Iran doesn't have a successful nuclear weapons test (confirmed by international seismometers) by the end of 2027, they get the biggest FFIA award on the planet.
there it is.
then what? have another month long war where they lose again?
hopefully they lose much faster next time
Makes me think Trump really did threaten to nuke them. Not sure how else to explain the about face, they've been pretty firm, even gleeful, in denying any amount of negotiation except for the US's complete withdrawal.
Even if trump really was running his mouth, the calculus of MAD and nuclear warfare demands that every other nuclear armed state takes the threat dead serious.
I suspect the moment his post went out every diplomatic and military side channel was lit up with calls from Russia, China, Pakistan etc telling the US to sit their boy down.
Failing to do so would mean fatally weakening deterrence. The yanks may think themselves safe half a world away, and trump lives in his own invented reality, but no one in the Eurasian continent will stand for this bullshit.
Don't be pathetic
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/7/iran-war-live-trump-warns-of-devastating-attacks-as-deal-deadline-nears?update=4471472
Statement on two-week ceasefire from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council
The following is a statement by the Supreme National Security Council of Iran on the two-week ceasefire and the conditions for negotiations:
These negotiations will begin in Islamabad with complete distrust of the American side, and Iran will allocate two weeks for these negotiations. This time can be extended by agreement of the parties.
It is necessary to maintain complete national unity during this period and to continue the celebrations of victory with strength.
The current negotiations are national negotiations and a continuation of the field, and it is necessary for all people, elites, and political groups to trust and support this process, which is under the supervision of the revolutionary leaders and the highest levels of the system, and to strictly avoid any divisive statements.
If the surrender of the enemy in the field becomes a decisive political achievement in the negotiations, we will celebrate this great historical victory together, otherwise we will fight side by side in the field until all the demands of the Iranian nation are achieved.
Our hands are on the trigger, and as soon as the slightest mistake by the enemy is made, it will be responded to with full force.
Supreme National Security Council