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this post was submitted on 21 Dec 2023
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chapotraphouse
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It'll probably be Poland or Hungary IMO. Been seeing a lot of chatter about the "backstabbing Poles" on pro Ukr Twitter.
I wonder how much more fascist Hungary is going to get if a Ukrainian refugee does a terrorist attack against them.
that might not make it that much more fascist, since it'd confirm that orban has been right about ukraine. it'd strengthen the regime, so why up the pressure?
then again, he could do it just for fun...
Has Orban been warning about the refugees from Ukraine? I thought he mostly just wanted the war to end so that the EU would get off his ass about his "support" for Putin, and because he recognized that Ukraine is absolutely not winning that war, so why prolong the inevitable. But Orban's way of thinking is quite hard for me to understand, since everything Danish media writes about him is "big bad Putin fanboy wants to strangle kittens, just like Putin"
i live here and i no longer really understand what his plan is, apart from the basics: build up a national burgeois/oligarch class which he can control, to protect his racket from international oligarchs (so putin's plan), and try to "fish in muddy waters", somehow navigating between EU/NATO, russia and china, thereby hoping to have some freedom of movement.
also do as much fascism as necessary while fighting on two political fronts, against the eu-lib types AND the frothing fascist types. but this too is like putin.
now i really dont know how he plans to actually continue this indefinitely, because unlike russia, hungary has absolutely nothing.
Didn't Hungary used to have a massive manufacturing base that could conceivably be recreated, if the conditions were right? Or is Orban (much like Putin) too much of a liberal to ever do industrial policy like a 20th century leader, instead of whatever neoliberal bullshit that most countries do today.
we still have some manufacturing i think, assembling autoparts for germany, assembling batteries for some chinese company, that sort of thing.
maybe we're somewhat coming out of the massive slump that came when the soviet market collapsed, but i dont think the profits get invested locally...