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2024 Predictions
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this post was submitted on 01 Jan 2024
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chapotraphouse
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2024 fanfiction:
1 Trump goes to jail
2)Trump wins because he is in jail, and then pardons himself and everyone from jan 6
2a) PSL candidates win more votes than any communist or socialist has ever won in US history, but still lose handily (oof). Media never mentions it anyway.
3)Biden dies of natural causes shortly before Election Day. Media pretends it is a great tragedy, but literally nobody cares. He still loses to Trump in jail.
3a) Kamala is literally a deer in a headlights, immediately defers to Antony Blinken and John Bolton for advice. Decides to bomb a random country.
4)Trump dies of natural causes within weeks of Biden dying, VP-elect Tom Cotton calls for bombing of Iran, China, and alliance with Russia. Moscow refuses.
5)Democrats suffer biggest defeat in a generation, but media and politicians refuse to admit it has to do with Palestine. Ignore issue and claim it had to do with border/taxes/left overreach/poor campaigning/debates. Media/pundits decides people wanted to bomb Iran and Biden was too soft.
6)Ansarallah movement sinks US warship
7)Liberals start putting yellow ribbons on their cars and calling for national unification in support of the US soldiers against Yemen, even if they don't like Trump (or his VP Cotton)
8)Israel invades Lebanon, immediately bombs every hospital.
9)Liberals support move to "eliminate Hezbollah and bring democracy to Lebanon"
10 Leaked sex tape of Milei with the 6th generation clone of his dog that talks to him. Media is impressed by the level of romance and passion.
2a) PSL candidates win more votes than any communist or socialist has ever won in US history
Eugene V. Debs got 6,0% for the Socialist Party of America in 1912 - The media would highly likely definitely mention it, and the anticommunist propaganda would be a sight to behold.
This doesn't require 6% of the vote. 5% is probably enough to satisfy the prediction due to population increases.
5% is a huge amount of votes.
Nader's 2000 campaign got 2,8% of the vote, and he was a nationally known and popular radlib at the time for his consumer rights advocacy - 5% is an amount of votes European leftist parties struggle to get for the last 20 years, not to mention communist ones.
Of course, it would be a huge achievement to get that many votes (and probably impossible without party structures in every major county at the least), but matching the 0,24% total for far-left parties from 1976 is a more realistic expectation.
That's the most unattractive framing I've ever seen. Framing it that way is more likely to push people away than to get them doing it, even comrades.
Five percent.
I mean if you want to get excited over electoralism, go ahead - I'm in a dead end demsoc party and if you expect huge gains and communism in 5 years because you're Harry DuBois and you're gonna fix the malaise of the left, you're just gonna get yourself burnt out.
It's not a matter of expecting it comrade. It's a matter of pursuing it. You're far more likely to make a goal of 0.25% (or more) by shooting for 5% than you are by shooting for 0.25%. You try selling that shit to someone, they'll laugh at you.
The target must be attractive if you're going to draw anyone in that isn't already a marxist leninist, and PSL's name and modernised style is uniquely suited to casting a wider net than most ML parties are capable of.