German government fails and they have to do early elections, CDU gets into power, SPD becomes their junior partner, afd uses their 20 something percent to get through shitty laws whenever the SPD won't vote for them

The FDP's vote on the traffic light coalition actually ended with a narrow majority against dissolving the government, so it seems it will not collapse yet. The rest seems about right, except for the assumption the SPD won't vote for the worst laws "with stomach pains" (as is often mocked).