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this post was submitted on 07 Jun 2024
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I think Biden eeks out a win just barely.
I can't see how myself. The blue no matter who base isn't sufficient to get him across the line, and he's basically alienated everyone else at this point. Meanwhile, Trump's base is only becoming more galvanized by the day.
Dems have been outperforming expectations in every election since the Dobbs decision.
Yeah but he's not adding to the base. It's just the same knuckle draggers who believe every L they take makes them stronger
Dems aren't adding to their base either, especially with the economy in the gutter, open support for genocide, and the failed proxy war in Ukraine. All the polling shows that dems are losing support across the board.
As I mentioned, the Dobbs decision has in fact galvanized and added to the Dem base. Yes, this is tempered by the dozens of reasons they're horrible but it remains a factor.
Good news is that we don't have to wait too long to find out what actually happens.
time flies when you don't actually give a shit
Trump isn't adding to his base either. a lot of independent voters think Trump is corrupt. he is not very popular outside of his base. Biden's strategy is run on anger at the abortion decision and "saving democracy" which might be enough to put him across the finish line but it should be a blow out for democrats if someone who wasn't Biden was running against him.
I guess we'll see how it plays out.
Trump's base is also not enough to get him over the finish line.
I wouldn't bet on that. Ultimately, it just needs to be bigger than the lib base in the swing states. And thanks to gerrymandering, they don't even need to have an actual majority.
Doesn't need to be big if the sixty voters in each of the bumfuck counties in the flyovers vote for him. Hilldawg won the popular vote after all