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submitted 1 month ago by yogthos@lemmygrad.ml to c/news@hexbear.net
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[-] Babs@hexbear.net 62 points 1 month ago

Do they think Putin's replacement would be a chill guy? Last time someone other than Putin was president, it was fucking Medvedev.

[-] duderium@hexbear.net 65 points 1 month ago

In movies and video games, when you kill the boss, you win. This is also how things work in real life.

[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 41 points 1 month ago

Exactly, I've asked libs this very question many times. It's pretty clear that Putin is a moderate in Russia, and whoever replaces him will be a lot more hardline. The main criticism of Putin in Russia right now is that he's being to soft dealing with the west.

[-] simontherockjohnson@lemmy.ml 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

You point out exactly why it would be a good idea for the West to kill Putin. Putin represents an extremely effective moderating force on Russian politics since he became President and especially since he imprisoned Khodorovsky. Putin presided over and enforced a merger of "legal" and "criminal" capital in Russia. It's important to note that in reality these are practically distinctions without difference post-USSR, they could more realistically be called de jure and de facto capital.

If Putin is out of the picture the Russian oligarchy can declare a 90's style free for all on each other once again to figure out who the next guy who can stitch together capitalist power is. In the West these power structures are much more diffuse (but are becoming less and less diffuse) because the governments are "fairer" (read capital class solidarity) kleptocracies and the entire legal systems exist to prevent the nobility from declaring war on each other.

While Putin's replacement may be much more of a hardliner, it's unlikely that they would be more effective at administering the Russian capitalist state and managing it's power constituencies than Putin. There's a reasonable argument to be made that if Putin dies the SMO collapses by way of lack of political will, infighting, and opportunism within the Russian oligarchy. Everyone forgets just how unpopular the SMO was among the elites and the commoners until the state put the consent factories into overdrive.

To get SMO working, Putin broke one of the most durable Russian liberal constituencies, babushka's with dead sons. War is perennially incredibly unpopular in Russia, and it's driven entirely by babushkas who aren't afraid to see Russian jails and aren't afraid to loudly shame every single man involved in their arrest on traditionalist and gender grounds. The actual pro-SMO censor laws for that reason alone work on egregious fines that effectively silence pensioners.

This contingent is also essentially everywhere in the former USSR, but they're often extremely pliable if not through political chicanery through outright consequences for their living situations. It's a political contingent that is difficult to understand in the West because their typical political positions are so heterodox by Western understandings.

Lastly I think after Putin reached critical mass for the SMO in mid-2023, it's been difficult to tell who is actually a true believer in the hardline stuff and who is playing the part. Medvedev doing Zhirnovsky style posting is a bit out of character based on prior history. He literally gave back Gori (large industrial city) and Poti (warm water port) in 2008. They held several key cities past cease fire. So given how he did South Ossetia, I would peg Medvedev would have wrapped things up by now to focus on other things because they have already annexed Crimea + DNR + LNR + Kherson and Luhansk. Compared to Georgia, the Russian state did not need the full court press to sharpen the ideological lines between Russia and Georgia simply because Russians did not care as much. Ukraine is a different story because West of Moscow you will find many people who have family living between Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Caucuses are culturally different and aren't as intermixed between Russia (there's something like 100k Georgians in RF by the official census mostly in Moscow), so there was no good feelings, cultural similarity and familial bonds to break. More people were arrested / detained for anti-SMO protests than showed up to the largest anti-Georgian war in Russia. I might even be so bold as to claim that the total number of anti-Georgian war protestors in Russia was realistically somewhere below ~2k.

This isn't to say Putin dies and the next day the SMO falls apart. It would be a real test of the RF's stablity if they can successfully prosecute the SMO and align on new leadership without things failing. Either way, it's a bit reflexive to assert that Putin is not a keystone to stability of this whole thing.

[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 3 points 1 month ago

You're falling for the great man theory here. Putin doesn't run Russia single handedly, and there is a whole political system that exists to preserve the status quo. If Putin was out of the picture, the most likely scenario is that somebody like Medvedev would take over. The idea that pro western oligarchs would swoop in has no basis in reality.

While Putin’s replacement may be much more of a hardliner, it’s unlikely that they would be more effective at administering the Russian capitalist state and managing it’s power constituencies than Putin. There’s a reasonable argument to be made that if Putin dies the SMO collapses by way of lack of political will, infighting, and opportunism within the Russian oligarchy.

I completely disagree with this assessment. Putin is a part of the state machine, and while he's an effective leader, he's hardly the linchpin of Russian political system.

Everyone forgets just how unpopular the SMO was among the elites and the commoners until the state put the consent factories into overdrive.

The economic situation has drastically changed in Russia since the start of the war, and dominant business interests are now largely domestic or tired to BRICS economically. The trade with the west collapsed at the start of the war, and that forced businesses to adapt and redirect their trade in response. There's no going back to the status quo before the war. I highly urge you to watch the following analysis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pm7_6LCkvQE

To get SMO working, Putin broke one of the most durable Russian liberal constituencies, babushka’s with dead sons. War is perennially incredibly unpopular in Russia, and it’s driven entirely by babushkas who aren’t afraid to see Russian jails and aren’t afraid to loudly shame every single man involved in their arrest on traditionalist and gender grounds. The actual pro-SMO censor laws for that reason alone work on egregious fines that effectively silence pensioners.

The war is actually very popular in Russia, and the main criticism of Putin is that he's not pursuing it aggressively enough. Everyone in Russia now understands the sheer hate the west has for Russians, and they understand that this is a war against the west. Everybody in Russia still remembers the 90s and how the west fucked Russia over during that time. There's no love lost there.

Lastly I think after Putin reached critical mass for the SMO in mid-2023, it’s been difficult to tell who is actually a true believer in the hardline stuff and who is playing the part. Medvedev doing Zhirnovsky style posting is a bit out of character based on prior history. He literally gave back Gori (large industrial city) and Poti (warm water port) in 2008, so given how he did South Ossetia, I would peg Medvedev would have wrapped things up by now to focus on other things because they have already annexed Crimea + DNR + LNR + Kherson and Luhansk.

This would obviously be impossible to do politically now. Russia is winning the war, and most people in Russia understand that the west lost. To stop the war now without getting all the objectives complete would be a complete non starter.

Either way, it’s a bit reflexive to assert that Putin is not a keystone to stability of this whole thing.

There's literally no evidence to suggest that he is.

[-] HexReplyBot@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:

[-] simontherockjohnson@lemmy.ml 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

This would obviously be impossible to do politically now. Russia is winning the war, and most people in Russia understand that the west lost. To stop the war now without getting all the objectives complete would be a complete non starter.

Again when comparing with the Georgio-Russian war, the objectives are roughly the same. "Denazification" isn't real, it's just something to sell the war to people who would be more hesitant about it. It's the same style rhetoric that Israel uses about Hamas.

This war started out entirely like the Georgio-Russian war except the decapitation strike failed in Ukraine where it succeeded in Georgia. At this point it's not about "war goals" because they would have settled on much smaller war goals had they succeeded in Ukraine, just like they did in Georgia. At this point it's about rubbing people's noses in it because the RF's base has caught up to the consent manufacture post-2023. They annexed a NATO buffer larger than the entire state of Georgia.

Furthermore there's evidence that shows that Georgia was a bit of a failure in regarding to the war goals. Lavrov quietly admitted in 2019 that if Georgia enters NATO, Russia would not start a war. That idea, that they need a "real buffer" vs what they did in Georgia, is really the only specific geopolitical reason they have to continue the SMO. However that statement itself is likely in response a "thing that would never happen" since there is a strong anti-NATO contingent in Georgian government, and previous presidents have been unwilling to join NATO without regaining control of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

What "real buffer" means is often whatever you can get. It's obvious why they're holding out for more, but the SMO war goals are already successful if you're looking at prior art. 35,000 sq mi of annexed territory between 2014 and 2025, vs like ~5k in Georgia.

[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 1 month ago

Again when comparing with the Georgio-Russian war, the objectives are roughly the same. “Denazification” isn’t real, it’s just something to sell the war to people who would be more hesitant about it. It’s the same style rhetoric that Israel uses about Hamas.

Denazification is very real, as is the repression of Russian speakers in Ukraine. Not only that, but plenty of people in Russia have family ties with eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, your comparisons with Georgia are superficial to the point of being laughable. You clearly lack any actual understanding of the root causes, and I would encourage you to spend a bit of time actually learning about them.

Furthermore it shows that Georgia was a bit of a failure in regarding to the war goals. Lavrov quietly admitted in 2019 that if Georgia enters NATO, Russia would not start a war. That is really the only specific geopolitical reason they have to continue the SMO.

Georgia does not carry nearly the same relevance for Russia as Ukraine does, and anybody who knows even a tiny bit of history would understand why. Russia has been invaded via Ukraine multiple times in the past. Having NATO build up military infrastructure in Ukraine is a red line for Russia.

I would encourage you to spend a bit of time actually learning about the subject instead of wasting time debating it out of ignorance.

[-] simontherockjohnson@lemmy.ml 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Yeah I think we're done here considering the amount of times you've made up arguments that you thought I was arguing and then responded to those. This is just egregious here:

Georgia does not carry nearly the same relevance for Russia as Ukraine does ... I would encourage you to spend a bit of time actually learning about the subject instead of wasting time debating it out of ignorance.

Yeah I literally said this multiple times, in multiple ways with different forms of evidence. You have literally just been ignoring it.

Compared to Georgia, the Russian state did not need the full court press to sharpen the ideological lines between Russia and Georgia simply because Russians did not care as much. Ukraine is a different story because West of Moscow you will find many people who have family living between Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Caucuses are culturally different and aren’t as intermixed between Russia (there’s something like 100k Georgians in RF by the official census mostly in Moscow), so there was no good feelings, cultural similarity and familial bonds to break.

It's incredibly funny for you to tell me to "do my own research" when the Georgio-Russian war was literally done out of the same big bullet points:

  1. Protecting Russian speaking minority.
  2. NATO buffer zone.

This has been admitted multiple times by multiple members of Russian government both pre and post war. In fact if you knew anything about the Georgio-Russian war you'd know that the cause of it was actually NATO escalation when Poland proposed extending Georgia a accelerated MAP in 2008 during the separatist crisis but before any actual invasion. Meanwhile the NATO MAP in 2008 Ukraine which was requested by Ukraine was quashed by Russian influence (which is ultimately what is quashing NATO MAP plans in Georgia to this day). If anything the escalation from 2014 to SMO looks more like them being butt hurt about losing Maidan so badly. The cultural war goals in the SMO are the same type of shit they said during Chechnya about Muslims. In Chechnya they ended up allying with the Kadyrovs one of the "Islamist" "terrorist" "tribes" they were denouncing.

Either way this is no longer productive and I'm disengaging. If we're giving each other debater advice, I suggest next time you argue against my actual argument (removing Putin just like removing any head of state in reality creates a power vacuum, and in Russia that power vacuum is uniquely sizable because Putin's real constituency is an oligarchy that agreed to his leadership as a compromise between all of them) not an adjacent argument that you've constructed that you find to be an easier target. ☮

[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 1 points 1 month ago

I love how you claim that basic facts of the situation are "made up" arguments while trying to create some sort of equivalence between the situation in Ukraine and Georgia. Bye.

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[-] TankieTanuki@hexbear.net 25 points 1 month ago
[-] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 49 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Destroyed the entire Russian aviation sector just to lick Obama’s boots by promising to buy Boeing planes from America.

Refused to veto NATO invasion of Libya at the UNSC (Resolution 1973), despite Putin’s plea. The first known public spat between Putin and Medvedev.

[-] TankieTanuki@hexbear.net 30 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Boeing

visible-disgust

I bet he has buyer's remorse.

[-] Babs@hexbear.net 30 points 1 month ago

I wasn't politically aware when he was president, but he has been very outspoken since the SMO, and very hardline about it. He's the guy drawing the funny maps where Ukraine doesn't exist/is the size of Rhode Island.

[-] darkcalling@hexbear.net 12 points 1 month ago

Honestly I think it's an act. Maybe he thinks that way but his role is to be the unreasonable, mad attack dog snarling at the west and threatening them with a worse time which makes Putin look reasonable and illustrates the possibility of someone worse. Maybe he's gotten angrier and harder edged since he was in power after all the issues and betrayals but I wouldn't count on it necessarily.

[-] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 53 points 1 month ago

Honestly if he gets taken out by something like that, then gg, skill issue, DESERVED

History is not kind to such naked dumbassery

[-] Diva@hexbear.net 37 points 1 month ago

you couldn't pay me to get in a helicopter at this point

[-] TankieTanuki@hexbear.net 23 points 1 month ago

I'd sit in one on the ground with the engine turned off.^[For three or more beanis snacks]

[-] muirc@hexbear.net 35 points 1 month ago

Surprising. Putin ought to know the TrueAnon rules.

[-] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 32 points 1 month ago

Yea, but it hits a bit different when your (former) country makes shit like this:

Pure embodiment of Brutalism.

[-] Sulvy@hexbear.net 27 points 1 month ago

Why that helicopter got boobs?

[-] hotcouchguy@hexbear.net 31 points 1 month ago

Somewhere in here there's an attack helicopter joke, but I can't land it

[-] kristina@hexbear.net 10 points 1 month ago

Superior Soviet engineering

[-] LocalOaf@hexbear.net 20 points 1 month ago

A Hind-D?! What's a Russian gunship doing here?!

hexbear-punished

[-] FALGSConaut@hexbear.net 19 points 1 month ago

I might be willing to break the no helicopter rule and risk it all if I had the opportunity to ride in a Hind

[-] Alaskaball@hexbear.net 14 points 1 month ago

Flying pigs!

[-] ShimmeringKoi@hexbear.net 15 points 1 month ago

Makes you wonder what kind of cool modifiations the helicopter has

[-] coolusername@lemmy.ml 2 points 1 month ago

Eh, Russia isn't even trying to kill Zelensky. They actually told him they weren't going to target him.

[-] RNAi@hexbear.net 46 points 1 month ago
[-] WhatDoYouMeanPodcast@hexbear.net 9 points 1 month ago

There were helicopters in Mission Impossible and I thought about this.

[-] stupid_asshole69@hexbear.net 45 points 1 month ago

They need to stop Putin him in danger like that

[-] altphoto@lemmy.today 6 points 1 month ago

Yeah let's do it again from the right this time. C'mon go again!

[-] merthyr1831@lemmy.ml 1 points 1 month ago
[-] peeonyou@hexbear.net 38 points 1 month ago

He wore a smart suit when he visited with... While he visited the nuclear plant he wore olive green military fatigues...

What is the obssession with what clothes Putin is wearing when he goes places? Goddamn weirdo ass brits.

[-] miz@hexbear.net 37 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

can't talk about material conditions or historical context so the focus winds up being on outfits and armchair psychoanalysis

[-] Outdoor_Catgirl@hexbear.net 21 points 1 month ago

Because they're already doing this with zelensky, so why not for the other guy?

[-] kristina@hexbear.net 6 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

co.uk domain, they basically see him as royalty and must fawn over him, it's in their nature

[-] Alaskaball@hexbear.net 38 points 1 month ago

Ah darn. I guess we're not bathing in nuclear fire today.

[-] SexUnderSocialism@hexbear.net 28 points 1 month ago

Armageddon will have to wait for another day. zelensky-pain

[-] UmbraVivi@hexbear.net 20 points 1 month ago

I know international law is fake but would Putin's helicopter be a legal target?

[-] companero@hexbear.net 23 points 1 month ago

Putin is the commander-in-chief of the Russian military, so yes.

I think he and Zelensky have an unwritten agreement not to target each other though.

[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 29 points 1 month ago

It's not that they have an unwritten agreement, but more of a fact that these kinds of political assassinations open up a whole can of worms. From Russian perspective there's little value in removing Zelensky since he'd just be replaced with another puppet like Zaluzhny who might even end up being more competent.

[-] SevenSkalls@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

It's not that they have an unwritten agreement, but more of a fact that these kinds of political assassinations open up a whole can of worms.

Idk it's been working fine for Israeli.

[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 4 points 1 month ago

Difference is that Israel is doing that in Iran, and if Iran responded in kind then it would provide the excuse for the US to start a war. If Israel tried doing assassinations in Russia, you can bet Russia would respond in kind.

[-] MemesAreTheory@hexbear.net 16 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

We'll see about that in the coming days I guess

zelensky-pain "it was just a prank bro" putin-wink

[-] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 11 points 1 month ago

The agreement is purely one sided. Putin could take out Zelensky any time he wanted. He doesn't because there is nothing to be gained, Zelensky is a joke, a clown. The same doesn't apply the other way. The Kiev Nazis absolutely would kill Putin if they could. They are death cult lunatics who are just itching to trigger a nuclear war if it means "sticking it to the Russians".

[-] Sinisterium@hexbear.net 8 points 1 month ago

Putin doesnt need to kill zelensky, that man is a destined for a shallow ditch anyway, in fact if he would die then ukraine would be run by azov themselves and that would mean that the entire ukraine has to be occupied.

[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 18 points 1 month ago

The end of the war is in sight and some people very much do not want it to end.

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this post was submitted on 26 May 2025
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