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submitted 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.


Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.

Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).

Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.

I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran's leadership must - if they haven't already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] LoveYourself@hexbear.net 99 points 1 day ago

Reality is winning: War, resistance, and the reunification of nation and state in Iran by Nahid Poureisa

Something is happening in Iran.

People are not only supporting the war, but they are getting closer to the state. The concept of “nation” has undergone a shift. In recent days, I have seen things I never could have imagined.

One of the most powerful images was a viral video: A young woman in Tehran, without hijab, wearing a koufiyeh, singing a deeply patriotic song under Azadi Tower, the symbolic heart of Tehran. This was not just a moment of performative nationalism; it was a statement, a contradiction of the narrative that pits the Iranian people against their state.

Social media, once a battleground of polarizing slogans, has become a platform for national unity. Campaigns are emerging one after another: to sign under the Iranian flag, to denounce Iran International (a channel broadcasting from Tel Aviv), and to criticize its recent interview with Netanyahu.

And it’s not the so-called conservatives or state loyalists pushing this narrative. It’s people from the same class and lifestyle background as the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protesters, those who just 4 years ago were seen chanting for regime change.

On the train, the conversations are no longer about dissent, they’re about the war. Women were there for each other emotionally. One was unsure whether she should leave the capital. I told her, “The Zionists would not dare to attack civilians again.” she replied, “But they already did.”

“Yes,” I said. “They did, during the first two days. But after Iran’s retaliatory operations, they learned that Iran is not only capable, but determined, not just to restore deterrence, but to dismantle the enemy’s power entirely.” I could see confidence return to her face.

Another woman joined in, agreeing with me. “The attacks were mostly done by Mossad agents,” she added. “Now things are more under control.” I nodded.

In the same train, a street vendor walked through the wagon, smiling. “We continue to live,” she said. “There is no other choice. I need to sell.” That was it, that moment helped me piece together the answer to a question that’s been haunting me: Why are people scared and yet still supportive of Iran’s stance?

For years, especially during the peak of “Woman, Life, Freedom,” we witnessed a profound split between the state and the nation in Iran. During the 2022 World Cup, at the height of the protests, many refused to support the national team, claiming it represented the Islamic Republic, not the Iranian people. That moment became a defining line. If you cheered for Iran’s team, you were automatically seen as being against the “revolution” [of Woman, Life, Freedom], a movement that had been hijacked and bankrolled by imperialist agendas.

But now? Why not apply the same logic? Isn’t this just a war between the IRGC and "Israel"? Can’t we say it’s a war between two evils?

No. Not anymore.

Back on the train, I realized how the concrete conditions of everyday life override Western-fueled delusions.** The smear campaigns and misinformation wars can’t hold against direct, lived experience. Why? Because people realized something crucial: their loved ones were attacked by "Israel". This wasn’t a fabricated threat from the Islamic Republic. The enemy of the state is now recognized, viscerally, as the enemy of the people.**

That unification is a turning point: the merging of state and nation.

Reality is defeating BBC Persian. Reality is defeating Iran International. Reality is bitter, but it’s powerful. In order to survive, you must fight back, and who has the means to fight back? The Iranian state. Its military.

After the recent Israeli aggression, Netanyahu posted a video calling on the Iranian people to rise up and “finish what he started.” He believed that by killing commanders, he could encourage the public to weaken the state. But this was a strategic miscalculation. He thought he could become more popular with the people by killing them.

No. He can’t. Reality is winning. The Iranian state is winning.

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[-] iie@hexbear.net 76 points 1 day ago

Is it actually plausible that America might really chicken out? Someone pour water on my optimism if it's unfounded

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 24 points 22 hours ago

Yes.

Trump is still calling the shots and I wont believe anyone saying it's certain or imminent until it happens. He's a genuine wildcard but the only person in that role that wouldn't listen to his bloodthirsty advisors

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[-] niph@hexbear.net 52 points 1 day ago

Trump loves throwing his weight around and hates actually committing to anything. He likes to keep people hanging as that gives him a sense of power. But committing to things means spending money and also potentially looking bad if it goes wrong. I don’t think even he could spin losing a carrier, for example to his most ardent supporters as any kind of win. The fear of looking like a loser drives so much of what he does.

Having said that, I think it’s gonna depend a lot on how well Israel and the hawks around him manipulate him emotionally. Iran is playing the game well so far but he could still end up feeling like he has no other choice to pull the trigger. That or Iran somehow makes a misstep and pisses him off.

[-] blame@hexbear.net 42 points 1 day ago

my extremely uneducated guess is they drop a MOAB on Fordo and declare victory, whether it works or not, and use it as excuse to exit the conflict.

[-] Le_Wokisme@hexbear.net 36 points 1 day ago

iran could pretend the moab ruined everything as well

we need a work and the president is in the pro wrestling hall of fame

[-] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 39 points 1 day ago

The quaint occidental is guided by a persistent need to save face. This curious cultural fixation permeates throughout occidental society from the simplest social interaction to geopolitical posturing of most importance.

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 12 points 21 hours ago

I think the Americans might feign victory regardless, but Iran can't do much to claim so unilaterally thanks to the IAEA snooping around (and reporting the damage of every facility hit so far) and the American-Israeli intelligence that will be clamouring over sateillite imagery of the site to monitor movements - it'll be clear if/when the site goes from recovering from the damage to normal operation.

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[-] ThomasMuentzner@hexbear.net 23 points 23 hours ago* (last edited 23 hours ago)

normally , straight no.

Iran is the Bloodlust obvesion of the US establishment - they dream 50% of all dreams in Bombing of tehran. The Empire spend 14 years to finally push Assad away . its occuping Iraq still for the Airspace.

But. the "No Dying for Israel" is currently extremly loud and comes straignt from the MAGA crowd & the Demonstation of Iranian Missiles might lead to a revision of the practical plans (Israel is hard to hid - far away , US Bases would be way way nearer .. ) thereby buying time , and maybe in that time , Iran degrades Israel to a "lost investment anyway" degree.

So much is in Flux currently. Maybe a Israeli Datacenter is important for the .....BOOM .... was ... important for the orginziation of Radar coverage....

Plan to start Bombing is today evening according to Hersh. So if Tomorrow USA is not in the War yet ---> good sign.

[-] coolusername@hexbear.net 10 points 20 hours ago

odds are it's taco trump again. just look at the US stock market. they either think trump is bluffing or iran won't be able to block the straight of hormuz because superior western military or whatever

[-] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 19 points 22 hours ago

they can chicken out for a time, but as Israel nears collapse they will need to be rescued. America won't let all of its investments fail, they will intervene before that and Israel loses the long term attrition war to Iran

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[-] TrippyFocus@lemmy.ml 42 points 1 day ago

I think that even if Trump was originally making the movements as a bluff, the fact that the media has pushed the whole “TACO” thing so much recently that at this point he’ll feel the need to do something. I really think he’s that thin skinned especially when all the neocons around him are pushing for it anyway.

Whether that’s just a shock and awe type thing claiming mission success and then pulling out or a full blown commitment I’m not sure. Might even be something more indirect like locking down the straight of Hormuz to make a big deal about “protecting oil and business” but can’t see him just sending them home right away after nothing.

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[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 79 points 1 day ago

If they drop a nuke on Fordow they can claim whatever they want to claim about its success because nobody will be able to verify whether it actually damaged the facility via radiation monitoring.

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 20 points 22 hours ago

The radioactive particles are different in both cases, I think, but you would need the IAEA and intl. press to accurately report that, which they just might not anyway.

The US will believe what it wants to believe, and everyone else will fall in line (or use their suspicions to justify their own emergency proliferation)

[-] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 81 points 1 day ago

Funniest thing about Israeli interception rates falling dramatically is that it puts the United States in a damned if they do damned if they don’t situation.

Give the Zionist entity more anti-missile munitions and deplete your own difficult to replace stockpile at the cost of becoming basically defenseless against China

OR

Let Iran make the incredibly fragile Zionist entity unsustainable by not giving it the anti-missile munitions it needs and sending the settlers packing.

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 18 points 22 hours ago

So much of this crisis would be resolved if the Americans went after the one guy putting 77 years of empire building at risk.

The empire will survive without Netanyahu, but it won't survive without Israel.

[-] whatdoiputhere12@hexbear.net 70 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Thoughts and prayers for the Microsoft building

source

::: spoiler spoiler


it apparently did not hit the building itself according to marmite, but still a sick ass photo ngl

[-] CthulhusIntern@hexbear.net 79 points 1 day ago

On Channel 13, an Israeli commentator joked about war with Turkey.

Stupidest move Israel could make.

[-] LocalOaf@hexbear.net 61 points 1 day ago

Israel being leveled because they attack a NATO member and Article V gets invoked against them would be so funny

[-] CthulhusIntern@hexbear.net 73 points 1 day ago

Or Article 5 gets invoked, but several NATO member states choose to ignore it and side with Israel, and then NATO either dissolves or membership becomes more worthless than the paper its printed on.

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[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 54 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Looks like a single missile was fired, detected very late and impacted directly. First warning to impact was 2-3 minutes. Guess Israel was expecting a build up for a larger scale attack, and missed the launch of a singular missile, likely from a launcher dispersed somewhere. New tactic maybe, singular launches to try avoid detection?

Impact crater and damage to an apartment building. Looks like most of the damage to the building was done by the cars catching on fire from the missile hitting them, and the missile didn't hit the building directly.

[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 46 points 1 day ago

First warning to impact was 2-3 minutes. Guess Israel was expecting a build up for a larger scale attack, and missed the launch of a singular missile,

This is interesting if only because I had believed the US intelligence would be capable of recognising a missile launch anywhere in the country at the moment of launch. Clearly that is false.

[-] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 15 points 22 hours ago

It could be slow detection, but it could also be very very fast missile thonk

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[-] Quaxamilliom@hexbear.net 55 points 1 day ago

AJ live right now showing videos of Iran hitting a microsoft hq in the zionist regime!

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[-] HarryLime@hexbear.net 53 points 1 day ago
[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 20 points 22 hours ago

We've reached the "posting quotes about how everything i do is a masterful gambit" stage of grief about how shit the bunker busters really are

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this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2025
197 points (100.0% liked)

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