161

Image is of the damage caused by an Iranian Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile in Israel, causing dozens of injuries.


Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.

A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?

And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


(page 7) 50 comments
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[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 53 points 13 hours ago

Has Trump said "Mamdani" yet?

[-] MLRL_Commie@hexbear.net 23 points 11 hours ago

goooooood question, I wanna hear him say it. I can imagine it already. It's going to sound so odd, I can tell. Something like mom-danny

[-] grandepequeno@hexbear.net 18 points 11 hours ago

I feel like he's going to pronounce it "Mom the Knee"

[-] DivineChaos100@hexbear.net 20 points 11 hours ago
[-] grandepequeno@hexbear.net 12 points 9 hours ago

That's too funny lmao

[-] jack@hexbear.net 17 points 10 hours ago

Mommy dommy

[-] LargePenis@hexbear.net 90 points 14 hours ago

The total American cultural victory is undeniable when me, a Lebanese dude who has never set a foot in America and will never be able to get a visa, is pumped for Zohran Mamdani's victory in his road to becoming the mayor of NYC. Honestly, good work America.

[-] Lisitsyn@hexbear.net 26 points 12 hours ago

if only the imperial metropole was in a country that actually had a real culture instead of whatever the fuck the american simulacra of european shit is meant to be. instead we have burgers and fries

[-] jack@hexbear.net 25 points 11 hours ago

American creative and artistic culture is one of like two truly great things about this country. In film, literature, and especially music, Americans have produced an incredible variety of beautiful and influential work. NYC specifically has earned its place as a global cultural hub through mass quantity and high quality of creative output.

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 42 points 13 hours ago

Blue Jeans, Rock Music, and baring witness to endless political ratfucking after a minor victory against the entrenched liberal political class.

[-] WrongOnTheInternet@hexbear.net 29 points 13 hours ago

minor victory

Isn't the DSA more like a relief valve?

Unless I'm mistaken (admittedly highly likely), the most radical policy is what, a rent freeze? Welcome the hard left policies of checks notes Nixon in the early 1970s

[-] grandepequeno@hexbear.net 31 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago)

Isn't the DSA more like a relief valve?

You might be thinking of the democratic party, I think one should wait for 1 or 2 cycles until the DSA actually functions like one to say this.

The DSA has never been in power nor really held anything as significant as NYC, if they get to do some of the things they propose to do it could, as you say, take some pressure of working people only and not really empower them, only for the right to come back to power and go back to pressuring them to squeeze them, like how some european social-democratic parties who reach government work.

Or they could make some progress in solving whatever structural problems NYC has that keep the masses unmotivated and desinterested so that by the end of it SOMETHING will have changed to make it easier for the left, and even if the right comes back they will be the ones to deal with what the left did rather than vice-versa

I don't really buy the notion that putting in the effort to elect this guy wasn't worth doing because, frankly, there is nothing obvious going on in america where that effort would've been better spent, I really don't think the left can make things any worse for themselves by boosting a DSA guy to mayor of a big city, so might as well throw shit at the wall and see what sticks.

So you can elect a progressive mayor in a huge democrat city, let's see how it goes.

[-] WrongOnTheInternet@hexbear.net 14 points 11 hours ago

until the DSA actually functions

Bowman and AOC were DSA members I thought?

Better than Mayor Sexual Assault Bloodfeast anyway

[-] grandepequeno@hexbear.net 9 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago)

Bowman and AOC were DSA members I thought?

Kinda but they're not mayors they're house reps, and there's only a handful of them so it's not like they're able to govern and function as relief valves the way social democrats in europe do, or like Mamdani might.

One can still argue that they do work as relief valves for the system but it's in a less direct, more ideological, way than actually governing a big city that is a whole political, economic and social system onto itself (I assume, was only ever in new york as a baby child)

I'm also pretty sure the DSA can't actually discipline them into doing anything, whereas Mamdani, unless the dem estabilishment buys him off, is gonna have to depend on whatever political power groups like DSA might give him.

[-] spectre@hexbear.net 8 points 10 hours ago

They had some DSA affiliation and support during their campaigns, but I hear that it was never the case that their membership (if they ever officially had it) was enough to put DSA in the driver's seat in any way.

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 14 points 11 hours ago

against the entrenched liberal political class

yeah it might be a massive compromise to 99% of socialists but if it "makes the libs mad" then i wont complain too much

[-] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 22 points 12 hours ago

To be fair even among Arab states Lebanon is uniquely western brained

[-] LargePenis@hexbear.net 18 points 11 hours ago

All Arabs are now western brained, it's over for my people.

[-] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 14 points 10 hours ago

nasser-ponder The dream will come true, never say never

[-] jack@hexbear.net 24 points 13 hours ago

You do spend a lot of time on an American website. Does this have much reach outside of places like Hexbear in Lebanon?

[-] LargePenis@hexbear.net 24 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago)

Well yeah, I'm seeing random left-adjacent accounts on Arab Twitter talking about it. I follow lots of Shia Islamists also and they're also happy that a Twelver Shia will become mayor.

[-] grandepequeno@hexbear.net 65 points 14 hours ago

Just saw a random ass tweet that made some interesting points about the Middle East and the ilusive Pivot to Asia

The ‘pivot to Asia’ never materializes because it doesn’t actually make any sense. It’s based on a loose analogy between what the US does in the Middle East and what the US could be doing in Asia that doesn’t hold.

The analogy is essentially:

Taiwan is Israel/China is Iran

America’s Asian allies are the Gulf states

Intellectual property is oil/Island disputes are religious conflict

So you can just move ‘US security provision + financial interests’ from one region to the other. Oil for IP.

This is why the US insists Asia has certain features that it clearly does not have - e.g., that sea lanes are under threat (has to be true to require US naval presence), that China cannot innovate and just steals IP (has to be true for IP to play the financial role of oil), etc.

There’s nothing at all to be gained by anyone in Asia from the US playing a bigger role. The Middle East had very specific needs because it’s full of oil producing states that can’t handle their own defense. It’s the nature of oil that makes the region a place of instability.

There’s no ‘larger role’ the US can play in Asia. There’s no way to trade increased security provision for a greater financial stake. The region is dominated by trade in manufactures, which is much more difficult to disrupt than the oil trade, and China is at the center of it.

[-] BynarsAreOk@hexbear.net 8 points 9 hours ago

I don't see their point here, making the implicit assumption we're talking about the ruling class interests and not the general peope.

For Japan the key reason is their Imperialist ambitions. Japan benefits extremely from US backing otherwise they'd have to build a military that can actualy measure up to China. Japanese nationalists have already succeeded into pushing for their own militarism and this is only allowed at all exactly because of the perception Japan isn't strong enough on its own. This militaristic narrative is only ever possible through the presence of US military in their country and as the US pushes the China bad narrative it naturally fuels Japanese nationalism.

Left to their own Japan would be far more inclined to seek peaceful relations with China and others. Economically its clear Japan should prefer China and pacifism, but the Japanese boomer led oligarchy is incapable of ever admitting Japan can no longer be a world leader and their ambition lies with maintaining the US perpetually invested in the region.

This is extremely surface level stuff you can find on google Japan hunts for dual-use goods makers to aid military expansion

Cultivating a home-grown defence industry was a key plank of Japan's 43 trillion yen ($275 billion) military build-up strategy launched in 2022 to counter escalating security threats from China, Russia and nuclear-armed North Korea.

But it faces a challenge. Unlike some of its allies, Japan has no defence industry champions, such as Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) in the U.S. and BAE Systems (BAES.L) that depend on military work for almost all of their sales. Even at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011.T) Japan's leading defence contractor, sales of combat aircraft, warships and other military equipment account for less than a fifth of revenue.

"If we don't pioneer on our own, we won't be able to keep up with global trends," former defence minister Minoru Kihara told Reuters. "Japan should invest in research and development that contributes to national security, including dual-use technologies, without fear of failure."

This is an impossible narrative without the expansion of US backed militarism in the region. The US is also a very strong guarantee over DPRK's nukes which is self explanatory, Japan will never build nukes on their own.

For South Korea I'm not even sure there needs to be an argument made about how a bigger US involvement against the DPRK is necessary, as SK is just a giant Samsung company town, without this stranglehold on society is there any future for them?

[-] grandepequeno@hexbear.net 50 points 14 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago)

UK Poll with Hypothecical Jeremy Corbyn party

Westminster Voting Intention (🟣 Incl. Hypothetical Left-Wing Corbyn-Led Party):

RFM: 27% (=)

LAB: 20% (-3)

CON: 20% (=)

LDM: 14% (=)

🟣 JC: 10% (New) long-corbyn

GRN: 5% (-4)

SNP: 2% (-1)

Changes w/ regular Voting Intention without JC.

Since it's first past the post this wouldn't mean many seats but it's interesting

EDIT: Just fyi though Wagenknecht's party in germany also polled pretty high when it was a hypothetical option in polls and then during an election they were just shy of 5% and in america a hypothetical 3rd party would poll pretty high but none of the many 3rd parties get that much.

So there's probably a big difference between hypothetical options in polls and what people would vote for considering it might be a wasted vote.

[-] CleverOleg@hexbear.net 21 points 10 hours ago

In California, the PSL candidate (Claudia de la Cruz) beat out the Libertarian Party candidate for the Presidential election in 2024. I am using that as my completely arbitrary bar for success - I want to see Corbyn’s party beat the Lib Dems, and honestly if this hypothetical party is polling that well already then that is a good sign.

[-] jack@hexbear.net 37 points 13 hours ago

For first polling for a party that doesn't exist yet this is pretty good

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 32 points 13 hours ago

Lol eat shit greens (glib dems)

I'm trying to forget the likely reality of a Farage govt. which will always remain preferable to Corbyn for the press/bourgeois class. BUT if we make a few labourite class traitors squirm in the process (and maybe kick a few out like Wes Streeting) this mega in 2029 can have a laugh before Prime Minister Nigel sends us to die for Taiwan.

[-] gwysibo@hexbear.net 31 points 14 hours ago

really shows how useless the green's messaging is when they can't even beat JC by himself in a hypothetical scenario

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this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2025
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