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submitted 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

Image is of Assad and his family.


After less than two weeks of retreating with few shots fired and little resistance, the SAA has retreated into, well, a state of non-existence. This thereby ends a conflict that has been simmering for over a decade. With the end of this conflict, another begins: the carving up of what used to be Syria between Israel and Turkey, with perhaps the odd Syrian faction getting a rump state here and there. Both Israel and Turkey have begun military operations, with Israel working on expanding their territory in Syria and bombing military bases to ensure as little resistance as possible.

Israeli success in Syria is interesting to contrast against their failures in Gaza and Lebanon. A short time ago, Israel failed to make significant territorial progress in Lebanon due to Hezbollah's resistance despite the heavy hits they had recently taken, and was forced into a ceasefire with little to show for the manpower and equipment lost and the settlers displaced. The war with Lebanon was fast, but still slow enough to allow a degree of analysis and prediction. In contrast, the sheer speed of Syria's collapse has made analysis near-impossible beyond obvious statements like "this is bad" and "Assad is fucking up"; by the time a major Syrian city had fallen, you barely had time to digest the implications before the next one was under threat.

There is still too much that we don't know about the potential responses (and non-responses) of other countries in the region - Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Russia, for example. I think that this week and the next will see a lot of statements made by various parties and an elucidation of how the conflict will progress. The only thing that seems clear is that we are in the next stage of the conflict, and perhaps have been, in retrospect, since Nasrallah's assassination. This stage has been and will be far more chaotic as the damage to Israel compounds and they are willing to take greater and greater risks to stay in power. It will also involve Israel causing destruction all throughout the region, rather than mostly localizing it in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Successful gambles like with Syria may or may not outweigh the unsuccessful ones like with Lebanon. This is a similar road to the one apartheid South Africa took, but there are also too many differences to say if the destination will be the same.

What is certain is that Assad's time in power can be summarized as a failure, both to be an effective leader and to create positive economic conditions. His policies were actively harmful to internal stability for no real payoff and by the end, all goodwill had been fully depleted. By the end, the SAA did not fight back; not because of some wunderwaffen on the side of HST, but because there was nothing to fight for, and internal cohesion rapidly disintegrated.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] thelastaxolotl@hexbear.net 64 points 3 months ago

Red media

This morning, the Israeli army reached Qatana, about 20 kilometers from Damascus. Israel is advancing into Syrian territory to fulfill Netanyahu's vision of a “Greater Israel.” Last night, Israel claimed to have conducted its biggest air operation in history against Syria.

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[-] parande@lemmy.ml 64 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

edit: these are Khamenei's words and from a speech today btw, I feel like my screenshot was bad and confused people

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[-] LargePenis@hexbear.net 63 points 3 months ago

Some pretty credible reports in Iraqi media about Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Al Sistani's health rapidly deteriorating. He's considered the Grand Marja of the Shia Muslim faith, which makes him pretty much the Shia Pope. Shia Marja politics are incredibly interesting, and his death might actually trigger a pretty massive upheaval in the upper echelons of the political side of Shia Islam. This might be the topic of my next effortpost, something about the evolution of the Shia Marja since colonialism and then Sistani's interpretation of the role which made him the modern Marja (but actually not, more on that later). The fight about succession will be interesting with many clashing dynamics (Persian vs Arab, Qom vs Najaf, Sistani family vs Islamic Republic of Iran, Political vs Apolitical, Old vs Young), and the looming Sadrist cult threat is even more interesting.

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[-] Dirt_Owl@hexbear.net 63 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

I still can't believe that the shooting happened right as I started a playthrough of Luigi's Mansion. This is so surreal.

Watch me start a playthrough of New Vegas and another CEO gets dunked on by someone called The Courier

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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 63 points 3 months ago

Ali Larijani reportedly offered him pre-set conditions 2 weeks ago in Damascus. Bashar didn’t agree with them and even refused to meet with Larijani—Iran’s special envoy—when he returned to Damascus Friday Dec 6. Bashar Assad refused to open the Golan front, despite being asked to by the resistance groups. The Assad government, after becoming too close with the Gulf Arabs, had put a lot of restrictions on IRGCQF, this sparkled dissatisfaction.

Ex-IRGCQF officer claimed Iran intel knew since 2 months ago that rebel groups in Idlib were up to something. He claims Iranians shared their worries with Turkey, but “Turks deceived them and assured Iranians there’s nothing to be afraid of—Should not have trusted the Turks. The situation in Syria has not ended and it’s going spark unrest. Especially between Kurdish SDF vs Turkish-backed rebel groups (e.g. HTS) AND inner fights among rebel groups.

It's now widely known that Iran, Hezbollah and other Shia factions asked Assad for permission to open a front in the Golan Heights after October 7th to support the resistance in Gaza & Lebanon. However, Assad refused, reportedly saying he did not want to drag Syria into a possible open confrontation with Israel & he did not want to risk jeopardizing his normalization progress with the Gulf States. Yemen's Ansarullah reveals more about Assad: 'He closed our embassy in Damascus, in exchange for Saudi Arabia letting him open a Saudi embassy there'

From Telegram

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[-] thelastaxolotl@hexbear.net 63 points 3 months ago
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[-] grandepequeno@hexbear.net 63 points 3 months ago
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Brief summary of today's Syria news.

Turkish-backed “SNA” fighters captured the northern city of Manbij and the surrounding countryside from Washington’s Kurdish-dominated “SDF” proxies.

The fascist Tel Aviv regime continues attacking Syria all over the country (even brazenly striking army bases in and near Latakia, an arms depot near Izra (in Daraa province), Damascus’ Barza neighborhood, Homs, an airbase in Qamishli, and many other locations). The Zionist invaders now illegally occupy the southern Syrian settlements of Quneitra, Madinat al-Baath, and Hader; and an army base on Mount Hermon. So far, the Salafist armed groups have not offered any serious resistance to the Zionist invasion. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, and Iran condemned the invasion.

[-] jackmarxist@hexbear.net 63 points 3 months ago

Ain't no way a Mcdonalds employee snitched on the Adjuster 💀

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[-] sempersigh@hexbear.net 62 points 3 months ago

Girl what the heck are you doing over there you are literally OLDER than the battle of the bulge

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[-] iheartmold@hexbear.net 62 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

⚠️ Warning – Graphic

Videos have emerged from across Syria showing extremist opposition elements, some of them wearing ISIS patches, carrying out sectarian field executions and revenge killings of supporters of Assad's government, former Syrian Arab Army officers, and Alawite civilians.

https://x.com/TheCradleMedia/status/1866594679963152513

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[-] BigBoyKarlLiebknecht@hexbear.net 62 points 3 months ago
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[-] CleverOleg@hexbear.net 62 points 3 months ago
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[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 62 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Israeli bombings are still ongoing in Syria. They're apparently targeting the facilities of what were radar battalions in Damascus, scientific research facilities in Hama, and missile bases built into the Qalamoun mountain range. Remember that video taken by rebels a few days moaning about how Assad and Hezbollah built those underground missile bases into the mountains? Well I guess they can stop moaning now, Israel is currently attempting to destroy those facilities, either with bunker busters dropped from planes, or Israeli special forces units planting explosives within them.

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[-] Coolkidbozzy@hexbear.net 62 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Big article on updates to the Colorado River water rights negotiation. Written strangely from a pro-Californian perspective, because there's no mention of how much water Californian farming corporations waste.

TLDR: Big rift between the lower and upper states on who should cut. No progress, and the negotiators are having petty fights blaming each other for the lack of progress. Trump will be taking over the negotiations. Realistically he won't have a proposal all states are okay with, so it'll become a legal battle at the end of 2026, probably going to the Supreme Court.

This is important because the Colorado River supports 40 million people, an enormous amount of hydroelectricity including the Hoover Dam, 15% of US agriculture, and 90% of winter vegetables. Asking states to cut water usage will force farmers to change crops, or go out of business. But allowing the reservoirs to dry would make a bunch of states and tribal lands uninhabitable, create enormous electricity shortages, and destroy a bunch of ecosystems

https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-12-10/colorado-river-divisions

‘Zero progress’: Western states at impasse in talks on Colorado River water shortages

spoiler

Seven Western states that depend on the Colorado River are ending the year at an impasse in negotiations over the writing of new rules for dealing with chronic water shortages.

Representatives of California and other states who attended an annual Colorado River conference in Las Vegas last week said they remain deadlocked in their talks on long-term plans for reducing water use to prevent the river’s reservoirs from reaching critically low levels.

Disagreements over competing proposals have created a deep rift between two camps: the three states in the river’s lower basin — California, Arizona and Nevada — and the four states in the river’s upper basin — Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico.

Those on both sides say they are willing to continue trying to reach a deal on how to apportion cutbacks in water use after 2026, when the current rules expire. But they also say easing the stalemate will be difficult.

Negotiations over the last year have brought “zero progress,” said JB Hamby, California’s Colorado River commissioner. He blamed the upper basin states for an entrenched position resisting participation in the cutbacks, which he said is untenable.

It’s worrying that there is a “widening chasm” between the sides, Hamby said. “We are running out of time, and we’re no closer to much of anything at this point than at the beginning.”

The Biden administration last month outlined a range of alternatives for the new guidelines, which will replace interim rules that were adopted in 2007. Along with that ongoing federal review process, President-elect Donald Trump’s administration is set to inherit a role in searching for a plan that all seven states can accept.

lmao trump is going to try and kill californian farming corporations

The impasse has raised the possibility that if disagreements aren’t resolved, the states could enter a legal battle, a path riddled with uncertainty that water managers in both camps have said they hope to avoid.

The tensions were apparent during last week’s Colorado River Water Users Assn. conference in Las Vegas, an event that often features negotiating sessions in addition to speeches outlining proposals for reducing demands on the river.

One public disagreement emerged over the lack of a meeting of the seven states’ representatives at the conference, a closed-door discussion that was usually scheduled in previous years.

Becky Mitchell, Colorado’s top negotiator, said during one public session that she had expected representatives of all seven states to meet before the gathering started, but “that did not occur.”

Hamby took issue with her comment in an interview after the conference, saying it was untrue to suggest the lower basin states had denied a request to meet. Hamby said Mitchell had emailed him and others Dec. 2 to ask if they would have time to meet on Dec. 3 before the start of the conference, but he told her that wouldn’t work because his flight was scheduled to arrive later.

Hamby accused Mitchell of trying to portray representatives of California, Arizona and Nevada as being unwilling to talk.

“It was a last-minute pointed request meant to not generate a meeting, and then use it as a media sound bite,” Hamby said. “It begs the question, why would we want to talk to them when this is the sort of childish antics that seem to be increasingly dominating the upper basin’s manner of behavior? Not focused on actual issues, but how do we play gotcha games in the media that misrepresent each other.”

Mitchell denied that, saying she emailed hoping all the states’ representatives would meet during the week, but that didn’t happen.

“My intention is to find a way to move forward,” she said. “And so I’d be willing to meet any time — Zoom, phone, in person, anywhere.”

The Colorado River provides water for cities from Denver to Los Angeles, 30 Native tribes and farmlands from the Rocky Mountains to northern Mexico.

The river has long been over-allocated, and its reservoirs have declined dramatically since 2000. The average flow of the river has shrunk about 20% since 2000, and scientists have estimated that roughly half that decline has been caused by global warming driven by the burning of fossil fuels and rising levels of greenhouse gases.

The decline in flow is projected to worsen as temperatures rise.

In recent years, the states have adopted a series of incremental water-saving plans to try to prevent reservoirs from reaching perilously low levels.

California water agencies say they have reduced water use by more than 1.2 million acre-feet over the last two years, decreasing the state’s usage of Colorado River supplies to the lowest levels since the 1940s. Some of those water savings have come through the Biden administration’s funding of programs that pay farmers to temporarily leave fields dry to reduce water use.

Those efforts have helped conserve water in Lake Mead, the country’s largest reservoir. As of this week, the reservoir near Las Vegas is 33% full.

Upstream on the Utah-Arizona border, the water level of Lake Powell, the nation’s second-largest reservoir, stands at 38% of capacity.

With the negotiations on future water reductions at an impasse, some experts at the conference discussed the possibility of a legal fight being decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.

Summarizing the mood at the meeting in an article for the news site Aspen Journalism, reporter Heather Sackett wrote that “speakers invoked Dr. Strangelove, the Hunger Games and Alice in Wonderland to convey the dire, darkly dystopian and illusory state of the negotiations.”

Mitchell told The Times in an interview that the hard discussions reflect the difficulty of making substantial changes to adapt when the reservoirs are at low levels.

“When you’re negotiating at or near crisis points within these reservoirs, it becomes more and more difficult,” Mitchell said.

Still, Mitchell said she is hopeful the negotiators will be able to progress in the talks.

“I really feel like we might want to spend some time looking at where we have some common ground, and see what we can build on from there,” Mitchell said. “We have to look at what the supply is and share that.”

The two groups of states have presented starkly different proposals, disagreeing on how triggers for mandatory cutbacks should be determined, and how the reductions should be apportioned.

Representatives of California, Arizona and Nevada say the upper states’ proposal is unworkable because it would require the lower states to shoulder the burden of the cuts, while the lower basin’s proposal would spread the cuts throughout the region when reservoirs reach low levels.

Representatives of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico say they are seeking proportionate reductions. Officials from those states have said because water users in their region largely depend on snowmelt rather than water releases from reservoirs, they already regularly face serious shortages.

Water managers in the upper basin states have come under criticism recently from environmentalists and officials in other states for moving ahead with plans for new dams and diversions that would take more water from the river.

Hamby said those plans are a source of concern.

“This is not the time for putting a further strain on an already stressed river that’s only going to be getting smaller in the future,” Hamby said.

Mitchell said agencies in Colorado are developing such projects with the understanding that their water rights will likely be curtailed in many years because of limited supplies.

“In many cases, new storage projects will essentially simply help folks store water in wet years so they can survive in the dry years,” she said. “We need to take advantage of those.”

Early next year, Entsminger said, “the states need to get back to work and start forging a solution.”

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[-] CthulhusIntern@hexbear.net 62 points 3 months ago

Funniest thing that could happen:

  1. Trump becomes President, decides to stick it to Mexico. Breaks off all diplomatic relations.

  2. Mexico stops doing trade or anything else with the United States.

  3. The next day, the Adjuster livestreams himself from a beach in Mexico, proves that he's the Adjuster, and says his real name. Mexico won't extradite him.

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[-] SoloboiNanook@hexbear.net 61 points 3 months ago
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[-] MuinteoirSaoirse@hexbear.net 61 points 3 months ago

Ford is threatening to end energy exports to the US if Trump goes ahead with the tariffs. Electricity from Ontario powers about 1.5 million houses in the US.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/doug-ford-tariff-threat-energy-exports-1.7408644

""That's okay if he does that. That's fine," Trump told a CNBC reporter."

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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 61 points 3 months ago

At least three Israeli soldiers were killed in the minefield explosion in 'Ras al-Naqoura' in Lebanon earlier today.

Lol

Erdogan: 'Besides Putin, I am the only real leader left in the entire world'

????

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[-] grandepequeno@hexbear.net 61 points 3 months ago

Photos of thousands of Syrian refugees returning from Turkey.

The guy on the latest radio war nerd said that in Turkey, much like everywhere else these days, there's been a rise in anti-immigrant sentiment, which syrians have been a primary victim of and having them return on their own without even having to deport them is a huge politican win for erdogan (though elections aren't until 2028 so I don't know if he'll remain popular by then)

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[-] combat_doomerism@hexbear.net 61 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

stuff in his reading list about dealing with back pain from surgery (including stuff about depression), maybe has been out of contact with his friends and family for months (if twitter screenshots are to be believed), was in NY sometimes around the shooting, had a manifesto and a gun with a suppressor on it when he was arrested (although could always be bs fed by the cops ig?), i think they got him, i think anyone saying otherwise is coping tbh. as for why he was so sloppy like this after seemingly planning this (relatively) cleanly at first? well, i think he saw how ecstatic the internet has been over it and wanted the recognition for it (and also, maybe he thinks he can get off scot free because of it?)

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[-] WIIHAPPYFEW@hexbear.net 61 points 3 months ago

HE QUOTED DUNKEY IN HIS YEARBOOK LMFAO

life is so full of wonders :,D

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[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 61 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Ex-defense chief suspected of plotting war with North Korea to justify martial law

Kim Yong-hyun is said to have called for strikes on sites from which North Korea was launching trash balloons and sending drones over Pyongyang

spoilerhttps://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/1172239.html

There are mounting suspicions that former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun intended to justify the declaration of martial law or a state of united defense by instigating a military conflict with North Korea by ordering strikes on the sites from which the North was launching trash-filled balloons and flying unmanned drones to Pyongyang.

Democratic Party lawmaker Park Beom-kye revealed Monday that he received a tip-off from a military whistleblower that the unmanned drones North Korea claimed Seoul had sent to Pyongyang in October were indeed sent on orders of the South Korean military — more specifically, on the orders of the former defense minister.

“The Defense Counterintelligence Command, formerly led by Yeo In-hyeong, yet another high school classmate of Kim’s, planned the specifics of the operation,” Park claimed, suggesting that it was “clear that this plan was conceived to offer a pretext for the invocation of martial law.”

A reference document on the operation of martial law troops and a joint investigation headquarters issued in November under the orders of Yeo, made public by the Democratic Party on Sunday, show that the Defense Counterintelligence Command reviewed the possibility of the simultaneous declaration of martial law and united defense to execute military responses and control public order and security in the event of a crisis, such as armed conflict with North Korea.

The document claimed that martial law and united defense could be declared simultaneously in the case of “enemy infiltration, provocation and domestic circumstances.”

According to current law, martial law is to be declared “in time of war, incident or other equivalent national emergency,” while united defense — a way of consolidating the country’s defense elements under a unified command — should be declared to respond to the “enemy’s infiltration, provocation, or threat of infiltration or provocation.” Both must be declared by the president.

Before publicizing the contents of the document, Democratic Party lawmaker Lee Ki-heon claimed to have received information on how, only one week prior to the declaration of martial law, Kim had ordered Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairperson Adm. Kim Myung-soo to “fire warning shots before striking launch sites of North Korea’s trash-filled balloons” if any such balloons were seen floating in South Korean skies.

For that to happen, South Korean soldiers would have to attack North Korea’s southwestern Hwanghae region, where the trash balloons are being sent from, which could easily escalate into a limited war.

In response, the Joint Chiefs of Staff denied allegations about such orders on Saturday, claiming that “no orders intending to escalate conflict took place.” However, it did not deny the discussions on targeting launch sites, saying, “The military conducts discussions on various operational situations from time to time.”

According to military officials, Kim Yong-hyun expressed a desire to strike the launch sites of North Korea’s trash balloons, but Kim Myung-soo responded by saying that such a move would be inconsistent with the current response policy, which stipulates that such strikes should only take place in case of tangible harm.

In September, as trash-filled balloons continued to cross the border, the Joint Chiefs had said that the South Korean military would take “decisive military action if it was determined that serious damage to our national security has occurred or if North Korea crosses a line.”

The Joint Chiefs said they were unable to confirm information in response to questions concerning the unmanned drones supposedly flown into Pyongyang.

By Kwon Hyuk-chul, staff reporter

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[-] parande@lemmy.ml 60 points 3 months ago
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[-] newmou@hexbear.net 60 points 3 months ago

A bunch of towers in my city have festive red, green, and white lights up in high windows. In my head canon it’s all Italian solidarity for Luigi

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 60 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Earlier this morning, Russia conducted a 6 and a half hour long missile attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and military targets, one of the longest attacks of the war so far, consisting of between 90-100 missiles. Before the missile phase of this attack, Russia also launched a large Geran-2 drone attack to soften up Ukraine's defenses of between 190-200 drones. Ukrainian sources state that the combined two phase attack consisted of between 280-300 missiles and drones combined. They claimed to have shot down 81 missiles and 80 drones, and 105 drones "lost their targets" (this shoot down claim doesn't even deserve any serious consideration, I'm only including it to give an idea of the amount of missiles and drones fired).

Note: each icon consists of a group of drones and cruise missiles, and not a single missile.

Drones were all of type Geran-2, a Russian variant of the Shahed 136 (yellow on the graphic, 190-200 launched). The missile attack consisted of Kh-101 air launched, subsonic, low flying cruise missiles launched from Tu-95M strategic bombers (purple, 50-60 launched), Kh-22/32 high flying, supersonic air launched cruise missiles likely launched from Tupolev Tu-22M strategic bombers (green, 1 launched), Kh-59 air launched, subsonic, low flying cruise missiles that can be launched from a variety of Russian fighter-bomber aircraft (in this case Su-30s were the suspected carriers)(pink, 1-2 launched), Kalibir subsonic low flying cruise missiles launched from the Black sea fleet (blue, 20-30 launched), Iskander ballistic missiles launched from the ground (olive green, 5-10 launched), and Kinzhal air launched ballistic missiles launched from MiG-31K aircraft (white, 4-8 launched).

As a result over 50% of Ukraine is said to be without electricity today. Remember, there are hard limits to any de-electrification of Ukraine, Russia cannot strike the sources supplying secondary power to Ukraine's nuclear power plants significantly, such a move could endanger the stability of the reactors. This is a continuation of Russia's de-electrification campaign in Ukraine, and the attack has been planned for some days/weeks, with movements of strategic bombers. Just before this attack by Russia was launched, Ukraine fired US made and targeted ATACMS ballistic missiles at Russia, striking targets within it's internationally recognised borders.

I'm guessing this was done to frame this Russian attack as a panicked response, rather than a predetermined and planned attack. Russia has in fact been on the front foot the entire time, the first large missile attack of this winter took place before Ukraine got permission to use long range US, UK and French weapons to strike Russian territory. Ukraine is likely trying to reframe that. Initially this was done by stating that the permission to launch attacks into Russia using ATACMS and Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles was because of North Korean soldiers, now it's being done by launching ATACMS attacks just before Russian attacks.

In response, I'll guess that Ukraine is planning to launch a Strom Shadow/SCALP attack on Russia. Ukrainian MiG-29 escort aircraft, which carry anti radiation US made HARM missiles to suppress air defences, escorting the Su-24 bombers carrying the Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles to their launch sites, have been spotted making strategic movements. Ukraine could also be bluffing though, too much is unknown. But do not be surprised if there's another Storm Shadow/SCALP attack in the coming days.

A live overview of the attack

Ukrainian claimed shoot down numbers, again just for an idea of what was fired

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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 60 points 3 months ago

Israel orders closure of Dublin embassy, blaming 'extreme anti-Israel policy of Irish government' - Sky News

The decision comes after the Irish government said it would ask the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to broaden its definition of genocide - claiming Israel has engaged in the "collective punishment" of people in Gaza. Israel's foreign minister has ordered the closure of the country's embassy in Dublin, citing the Irish government's "extreme anti-Israel policy". Gideon Sa'ar said "Ireland has crossed every red line in its relations with Israel".

"The actions and antisemitic rhetoric used by Ireland against Israel are rooted in the delegitimisation and demonisation of the Jewish state, along with double standards," he said in a statement. The minister pointed to Ireland's decision earlier this year to recognise a Palestinian state, for which Israel recalled its ambassador from Dublin.

The move also comes after the Irish government said it would ask the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to broaden its definition of genocide - claiming Israel has engaged in the "collective punishment" of people in Gaza. Ireland's taoiseach (prime minister) said in a statement that the decision is "deeply regrettable", and that "keeping channels open has never been more important so that we can better understand each other's positions, even when we disagree".

Simon Harris added: "I utterly reject the assertion that Ireland is anti-Israel. Ireland is pro-peace, pro-human rights and pro-international law. Israel will instead "adjust our diplomatic network of missions" to strengthen ties with countries that want to do the same with Israel, but do not yet have an embassy.

For that reason, Mr Sa'ar said Israel will open an embassy in Moldova, and has instructed officials to find a suitable building and initiate the process of appointing an ambassador.

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[-] DeathToBritain@hexbear.net 60 points 3 months ago

there's no way this Luigi guy is the shooter. the eyebrows just do not match with the CCTV of the shooting. I feel like some kinda tinfoil hat mfer just saying that lmao, but yeah I do not buy this

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[-] Wertheimer@hexbear.net 60 points 3 months ago

Daniel Penny has been acquitted of all charges in the ~~murder~~ ~~manslaughter~~ ~~criminally negligent homicide~~ apparently totally fine death of Jordan Neely.

https://archive.is/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/nyregion/daniel-penny-not-guilty-jordan-neely.html

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[-] plinky@hexbear.net 60 points 3 months ago
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[-] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 60 points 3 months ago

https://xcancel.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1868177840048628167#m

Arnaud Bertrand on Syria compared to China and Xinjiang

By the way, interesting to contrast China's response to this challenge with Assad's. Whilst Syria broke down in a full scale civil war, China did indeed operate a "crackdown" that involved identifying all the people in Xinjiang who empathized with this ideology and sending them to what it called "vocational education and training centers" (and what the West calls "reeducation centers"), where they were basically given a choice: either re-integrate into society by learning a useful skill (hence the vocational education and training aspect) or you'll be headed to prison next. They ran this program during approximately 2 years until December 2019.

At the same time, China spent a considerable amount of resources developing Xinjiang which saw its GDP per capita increase by 150% since 2011, whilst Syria's own GDP per capita was divided by 5 with the civil war. They notably developed the tourism industry, transforming Xinjiang into one of the most visited Chinese provinces, with an astounding 265.44 million tourist visits in 2023 alone. Xinjiang's GDP per capita (around US$10,469,) is now higher than countries like Brazil, Thailand or Vietnam.

The point of the post isn't really the comparison with Syria, as it's much smaller and more limited in options, but good analysis of the state of Xinjiang 5-6 years after the so called uyghur genocide

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[-] WIIHAPPYFEW@hexbear.net 60 points 3 months ago

The guy who sang God Syria Bashar switched sides it’s so fucking over

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[-] spectre@hexbear.net 60 points 3 months ago

Tiktok is telling me that the adjuster's family wealth was from a network of nursing homes. They were generally of very poor quality to say the least (I'm fucking disgusted, but that's US healthcare/elder care for you, nothing too new), and his LinkedIn shows that he volunteered at these homes.

It's likely that his experiences witnessing industrialized elder abuse had a strong effect on his views.

@tiffanycianci is the creator who pulled the research into a video if you want to look it up. Someone should grab it and post to tankietube or something.

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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 59 points 3 months ago

President Maduro: US-backed opposition is intent on replicating circumstances of Syria in Venezuela

"We're observing the development of painful circumstances for the people of Syria. Now, the fascist extremists are coming out to ask for a civil war to be waged in Venezuela.."

"We've gone through psychological warfare, political warfare, economic warfare, conspiracies.. the Empire and the fascist right-wing have run out of conspiracy manuals."

"When the gringo army criminally entered Iraq in 2003, they asked the gringos to do the same in Venezuela."

"When the gringos entered Libya and bombed and killed thousands, they asked him to come and bomb and kill Chavez.. He said that Venezuela is not Libya. Venezuela is the homeland of the liberators.. We regret that barbaric attack that dismembered and tore Libya to pieces.."

"When in 2014 Nazi groups staged the coup in Kiev, Ukraine and killed dozens of innocent people and seized power.. they also said 'the time has come, now it is Venezuela's turn..' In 2014, our people, with the Constitution in hand, defeated the guarimba and the attempt to lead our beloved Venezuela to a civil war.

[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 59 points 3 months ago

The Washington Post reports that U.S. officials are considering removing Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from the list of foreign terrorist organizations The UK government is also open to the idea, but Prime Minister Keir Starmer states that a change in policy now is 'far too early.'

On 9 December 2024, following the fall of the Assad regime, al-Bashir was tasked with forming a transitional government after meeting with HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani and outgoing Syrian prime minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali to coordinate a transfer of power. The next day he was officially tasked to head the transitional government until 1 March 2025

I've heard that most non-Western countries are still not sure whether to recognize this Syrian government, since HTS is still considered a terrorist group (even by the US). There's also the fact that the whole country is unstable and the leadership could change in the near future.

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[-] kittin@hexbear.net 59 points 3 months ago

Dementia Incidence Linked to Inflammatory Foods

Key takeaways

  • stop eating processed foods
  • limit calories
  • having sex doesn’t decrease risk, regular volcel W
  • basically the western diet is shit
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[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 59 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

The United States' response to the unveiling of the Russian Oreshnik Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) weapon occurred recently on the 12 December, with the first ever full scale complete test of the US' own CPS weapon, the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) system, nicknamed the "Dark Eagle", containing the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (CHGB). I'll do a post on it tomorrow or within the next few days. You can read the archive of the US DoD report on the test so long and research it if you want.

Army and Navy Successfully Test Conventional Hypersonic Missile, US Department of Defence, 12 December 2024

Full article text, click/touch/tap here to expand and view.
The U.S. Army's Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office, in collaboration with the U.S. Navy Strategic Systems Programs, recently completed a successful end-to-end flight test of a conventional hypersonic missile from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida.

"This test builds on several flight tests in which the Common Hypersonic Glide Body achieved hypersonic speed at target distances and demonstrates that we can put this capability in the hands of the warfighter," said Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth.

This is the second successful end-to-end flight test of the All Up Round (AUR) this year and was the first live-fire event for the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon system using a Battery Operations Center and a Transporter Erector Launcher.

"This test marks an important milestone in the development of one of our most advanced weapons systems. As we approach the first delivery of this capability to our Army partners, we will continue to press forward to integrate Conventional Prompt Strike into our Navy surface and subsurface ships to help ensure we remain the world's preeminent fighting force," said Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro.

Information gathered from this test will support the first Army Operational Deployment of the common hypersonic AUR, as well as a Navy sea-based fielding.

"This test is a demonstration of the successful Navy and Army partnership that has allowed us to develop a transformational hypersonic weapon system that will deliver unmatched capability to meet joint warfighting needs," said Vice Adm. Johnny R. Wolfe Jr, Director, Navy's Strategic Systems Programs, which is the lead designer of the common hypersonic missile.

The Services common hypersonic AUR supports the National Defense Strategy and will provide combatant commanders with diverse capabilities to sustain and strengthen integrated deterrence and to build enduring advantages for the Joint Force.

Hypersonic systems – capable of flying at speeds greater than five times the speed of sound (Mach 5) –provide a combination of speed, range, maneuverability, and altitude that enables highly survivable and rapid defeat of time-critical and heavily-defended targets.

"The responsiveness, maneuverability and survivability of hypersonic weapons is unmatched by traditional strike capabilities for precision targeting, especially in anti-access/area denial environments," said Lt. Gen. Robert A. Rasch, Director of Hypersonics, Directed Energy, Space and Rapid Acquisitions for RCCTO.

The U.S. Army RCCTO and U.S. Navy SSP programs are partnered to rapidly field land and sea variants of a hypersonic weapon system that will meet critical joint warfighting needs. The use of a common hypersonic missile and joint test opportunities allow the Services to pursue a more aggressive timeline for delivery and realize cost savings. The collaboration between RCCTO and SSP enables the Services to stay ahead of emerging threats and maintain a decisive advantage on the battlefield.

On a more lighthearted note, Oreshnik vs Dark Eagle, which name does everyone prefer in this battle of the new age CPS weapons? Feel free to comment your opinion. To me Dark Eagle sounds way too cheesy and supervillain like, or like the name of a new pickup truck or Corvette, while Oreshnik (hazel tree/flower) makes sense, as the warheads form streaks in the air that look like a hazel flower shape when cutting through the atmosphere and impacting the ground. Though naming a destructive weapon after nature might be too much for some. I'm team Oreshnik here, at least on the name.

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[-] combat_doomerism@hexbear.net 59 points 3 months ago

pure speculation on my part, but ive been thinking a lot about syria and the axis of resistance as a whole, i really wonder if so much of what we saw as potential cowardice from hezbollah and especially iran was because they knew something was irreparably wrong in the Syrian government and didnt want to be over extended when the collapse came.

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[-] WilsonWilson@hexbear.net 59 points 3 months ago

More evidence something funny happened in Russia on Sunday Dec 7:

They write to us here that the call sign Kim was introduced on the last day, "and early in the morning of the 7th they broke into Plekhovo from three sides and this was the last day, then Plekhovo fell." That is, the Russian Army allowed the already strangled Ukrainian Armed Forces to win. Like an adult cat teaching a young one to hunt half-dead mice. There is no need to belittle either the merits of the Russian Armed Forces in the toughest battles, or to downplay the successes of the Kims . The truth is in the middle. But in general, the topic is still taboo, although we personally do not see anything wrong with showing the participation of all the healthy countries of the world in the fight against Nazism.

Comrades Two Majors wrote everything correctly : the truth is somewhere in the middle. Yes, indeed, not in 2, but in a few hours, the fighters "with the call sign Kim" demolished several streets. The term "demolished" is used correctly, because they say that they are pushing forward like tanks, despite the losses, demolishing everyone in their path. Before that, for two weeks, Plekhovo was systematically liberated by units of the Ministry of Defense and "Pyatnashka". By the way, as expected, the units "with the call sign Kim" work separately on tasks, because we are all the same to them...

Settlement was taken exclusively by the North Korean Special Operations Forces. In 2 hours. They passed through like a hurricane, did not take prisoners. The enemy lost more than 300 servicemen

Nearly 50 NATO vehicles scattered on Plekhovo streets after its liberation

I’m still in early stages of learning Russian so i’m relying on google translate here but I think he is saying RF let DPRK perform some of the final clearing of Plekhovo as a live fire training exercise. If its true then DPRK just had a smol engagement with NAFO on the battlefield and prevailed. Russians are letting the story drip out as a warning and a troll.

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[-] HauntedBySpectacle@hexbear.net 59 points 3 months ago
[-] BigBoyKarlLiebknecht@hexbear.net 59 points 3 months ago
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