[-] geikei@hexbear.net 16 points 4 days ago

They used ATACMS saturation attacks on S300s and S400s. They were also used on more targets than just GBAD. They used an unknown amount targeting command assets and radars in Crimea, as well as some training grounds in various parts of Ukraine which resulted in likely hundreds of casualties. They number of ATACMS strikes has been prob ~20 +/- 5. And the Salvo size is 4-12 missiles for each strickes. I'd guess they have used ~200

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 73 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

While Russia-China trade reached a record US$240 billion (A$360 billion) in 2023, it has slowed so far this year

  1. Russia-China trade absolutely exploded in 2021-2023. Some plateauing is expected considering Russian domestic consumption and non military manufacturing arent too conductive for huge trade growth and Chinese EV and renewables craze reduces their needs for foreign energy imputs, much of which came and comes from Russia.
  2. China seems to have started using the STANs as middle men in some of their trade with Russia to circumvent some sanctions. Europe jumped to it early on but China basicaly ignored it for the first 2 years of the war and traded with Russia like nothing happened. But over the last 4-5 months the YoY export growth to Kazakhstan, Kyrgizstan, Armenia, Ajerbaijan etc has been >35%. With some months hitting 80-100% for some of these countries. Its fishy as shit and its obvious that a lot of it is trade with Russia

As for the rest of the comment this seems like half baked Pekingology to me. Psychoanalysing Xi's tone and word choice. Finding some lib professors and analysts from Shanghai saying their own shit and doing the "they werent cencored by the ever cencoring no freeze peach 1984 CCP so that indicates a change in attitude state wide". Like, there are probably hundreds of thousands of west loving libs both in the CPC and in chinese univercities and commentators, there are thousands of talks, forums and articles every week across China and China always had reasonable tolerance for these people saying their minds no matter the actual shifts and trends in domestic and foreign policy. We all know these things. Gathering 5, 10 or even 50 quotes from them to make any point isnt too hard. Im 100% sure they could have written the same article last year, and the year before. Hell im sure someone else did.

Weird for someone as knowledgable as you to continue posting low quality stuff like this along with "ohhhh its so over" commentary. On your 4th account in 5 months no less

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 60 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Since Russia's new icbm tests seem to be a bit hit and miss lately and with China's test recently its important to note that while the general public in the west seem to be under the impression that Russia’s ICBMs are the faulty and unreliable ones, it is the US that actualy fields almost exclusively positively ancient barely working missiles .

The Minuteman III is by far the world's oldest ICBM still in active use as part of a nation's nuclear triad. It was originally deployed in 1970 and only had a planned service life of 10 years. It's only still operational over 50 years later because of life extension programmes but at some point, a thing is so old that there's no life left to extend. The electronic components of that era basically don't exist anymore. So you'd not just be re-engineering the missile's design, you'd be re-enginering and remaking components from the very birth of the chip industry. It's an impossible task. Which basically means as these things break down there's no fixing them.

The former STRATCOM Chief had this to say about the situation:

“Let me be very clear: You cannot life-extend the Minuteman III [any longer],” he said of the 400 ICBMs that sit in underground silos across five states in the upper Midwest. “We can’t do it at all. ... That thing is so old that, in some cases, the drawings don’t exist anymore [to guide upgrades],” Richard said in a Zoom conference sponsored by the Defense Writers Group. Where the drawings do exist, “they’re like six generations behind the industry standard,” he said, adding that there are also no technicians who fully understand them. “They’re not alive anymore.”

People joke about questionable operational readiness of Russian ICBMs but in reality, Russia has significantly more modern ICBMs in service than the US and im not even gonna mention China's buildup in quantity and quality. It's the US that should be worried about the operational readiness of its ICBMs. This is especially prominent after the highly publicising failure of 2 of the US' Minuteman III tests last November. Sure, two missile tests worked in June (one barely) but given the recency of the previous failure, another failure would have spelled absolute disaster for the US' nuclear credibility so I'm sure extra care and attention to detail was taken in ensuring that failure was not even a possibility. Problem is its douptfull that the US even has the domestic capability to replace the land portion of its nuclear triad completely without it costing like 2 trillion dollars and taking 20 years. Sure the subs will always be there and they work quite well but its interesting to see what the US will done with its land based nukes. I highly doubt either the Democrats nor the Republicans will want to be seen as the party that says "our nukes dont work and we need 1 quintillion dollars to replace them " or just completely drop one leg of the US' nuclear triad, however unnecessary that leg may be.

One thing’s for certain and its quite funny, and that is if the US does not find significantly more money for its military, it will have to cut back on many aspects of its military it has up until this point taken for granted. Already, we are seeing budget constraints affecting every branch of the military in very significant ways. With the USAF being forced to rethink what it wants with quite literally one of its most important next-generation projects due to budget constraints. The state of the USAF tanker fleet is also less than optimal with them significantly cutting back on the number of tankers they planned on ordering this decade by half. Instead, the USAF wants to pursue a gold-plated stealth tanker solution called NGAS to enter service in the 2030s at the same time as all of their other commitments. God knows where they’re going to get the money for this.

The USN is also being forced to cut back on its own next-generation projects that are not limited to just F/A-XX as DDG(X) has also been running into issues. This is all in addition to F-35C procurement that is far less expedited than it should be. There is no money to expand shipyards and increase production in any significant way and submarine production is progressing at a glacial pace, with the US being unable to produce SSNs and SSBNs at the rate it needs to let alone produce surplus SSNs for Australia.

The US Army has also been forced to consistently delay replacements for aging platforms like the Bradley, Abrams, Apache, Chinook and so on. But, given that I highly doubt the US is going to be seeing any large land war with a major power any time in the near future, the US Army can get away with it much more than the other branches can.

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 90 points 2 months ago

Fun fact: The chinese province of Guangdong alone has more active factories than the number of total cruise missiles ever built by the US since 1980. Roughly by about an order of magnitude.

Just something to think about and laught when you see Americans jerking off to war with China and the mighty american military superiority

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 86 points 4 months ago

Funny to remember how widespread making fun of the "Soviet Gerontocracy" was in the 70s and 80s in western media and politics. This is so so so much worse. Suslov, Brezhnev and Chernenko at their worst and most decrepit state were monsters of vitality and intellect compared to what we are seeing from Amerikkka these days.

You can put renal failure induced encephalopathy Andropov on the debate stage 5 minutes before he died and Biden would still seem barely sentient comperatively

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 65 points 4 months ago

"dont let history repeat itself"

Bruh you are 500 miles off of China and they havent colonized you once in 3000 years. Meanwhile you got got multiple times by western colonial empires from the otherside of the globe. The only history repeating itself is yall being colonized by the US, this time willingly

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 69 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

One of the major disconnects between China’s financial class and the central govt right now is that the former got the message that the govt would protect them from the side effects of the controlled demolition of the real estate bubble through a surge of state financial support. They think that just because Xi wants to shift the financial system toward a more developed equities and bonds market to cover the finances of local governments that they would be the recipients of that restructuring and that measure for progress should be how quickly the govt directly pumps liquidity in their direction.

The chinese financial class thought that they could win the govt’s efforts to pivot the financial system because they believed the govt would have to bail them out with fresh credit injections while RE finance was dismantled. That the CPC was line brained enough that they wouldnt do anything too disruptive that would kill vibes for the stock market while also leavung them unprotected. And that fantasy being jilted is at the root of prevailing anger toward the govt. Every rich chinese's financial positions were built around real estate bets with those RE bets backing their equities portfolios, and since real estate based assets are getting repriced downward across the board in the correction they are becoming the main losers from multiple angles. They saw themselves as indispensable actors who the govt could not deny needing in this pivotal moment. What they forgot is the govt is engineering this transition for a future economy. And not for those who’ve already made enough money to gamble on stocks or speculate on real estate beyond owning the house they reside in. The hard reality for the financial class is the Chinese govt does not in fact consider incumbent financial actors as indispensable or in any way the focus group towards which future growth and prosperity will be directed towards. And since the whole restructuring has many years to go still they have to accept that this is the way things are gonna be from now on. Its maybe only just begining and they arent offered a "well just become somewhat less rich and restricted for only a couple of years and then things will again go your way and you will have new opportunities to do the same thing you were doing before in maybe a different way" deal.

Seeing the once "empty" slogan of "paying lip service to the ghost of socialism" - now being so materialy present that is held "responsible for China's malaise" is a remarkable change, isn't it?

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 60 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

President Xi says we can have a little Maoism, as a treat xi-peel

Xi meets with representatives of grassroots units applying 'Fengqiao model'

What is the Fengqiao model? Generaly speaking, a mass line based model developed and advocated in Mao’s era that directed the masses themselves at the local level to carry out the on-site “rectification” of “reactionary elements” in society promoting greater degrees of local self-governance and "decentralizing" class struggle. The “Fengqiao experience” ,named after Fengqiao Township, was the process of mobilizing the masses in order to “strengthen the dictatorship over class enemies.” Here is how the top Party leader of Fengqiao District at the time (early 60s) reflected back on it:

During the National People’s Congress in 1963, the minister of public security, Xie Fuzhi (谢富治), gave a speech called, “Relying on the Strength of the Masses, Strengthening the People’s Democratic Dictatorship, Transforming the Majority of ‘Reactionary Elements’ into New People” (依靠群众力量,加强人民民主专政,把绝大多数“四类分子”改造成新人). Xie’s speech made specific mention of the example provided by Fengqiao.

On November 20, 1963, Mao Zedong added his written instructions to the Xie Fuzhi speech, in which he said: “The example of Zhuji raised here is a good one — various regions should follow this example, expanding the work through pilot programs.” Before the Cultural Revolution, the ministry of public security released materials about Fengqiao, but the People’s Daily never reported on these. On December 21, 1977, the People’s Daily published the piece from the top Party leader of Fengqiao District quoted above. That piece was called, “Raising High the Red Flag of Fengqiao Erected by Mao Zedong, Relying on the Masses to Strengthen Dictatorship"

In the struggle against the enemy, arrest is necessary and proper only for a small number of class enemies; as for those you can choose to arrest or not, none should be arrested; you must mobilize the masses to carry out a struggle of reason, to deal with the enemies, carrying out on-site monitoring and rehabilitation, without the need to submit issues to higher authorities. This experience was affirmed and praised by the greater leader and teacher Mao Zedong.

Until recently, no top Chinese leader since Mao Zedong had ever been quoted publicly in the People’s Daily or other state media making remarks on the “Fengqiao experience.” But in 2013, marking the 50th anniversary of Mao Zedong’s written instructions, Xi Jinping broke this pattern by issuing “important instructions on the development of the ‘Fengqiao experience’." But the focus and promotion of the model has increased considerably in the last few years.

In the report of the 20th National Congress it was clearly directed that that the "Fengqiao Experience" in the new era must be upheld and developed at the grassroots level of society and based on it the mechanism for correctly handling contradictions among the people under the new situation should be improved. To facilitate and regulate the expression of public demands, coordinate interests and safeguard rights.

In March 2023, Xi again emphasized the need to uphold and develop the "Fengqiao Experience" in the new era, improve the mechanism for correctly handling conflicts among the people under the new situation, and promptly resolve conflicts and disputes at the grassroots level and in the bud by involving the masses in the identification of elements ,practices or people that must be reformed. During the Hangzhou Asian Games, Xi made a special trip to inspect the Fengqiao Museum and affirmed the great historical and practical significance of the "Fengqiao Experience".

The other day, along with the meetup i originaly linked Xi met with like 4 heads of state (including the Australian dumbass) ,yet his meeting with cadre representatives of the "fengqiao model" was the frontpage news on the People's Daily and other state media over them

To end with some interesting (optimistic and with a bunch of assumptions) food for thought. The "common prosperity" project, lauded as the next stage in socialism with chinese chracteristics and specificaly its "pilot" in Zhejiang, aimed to be completed by the mid 30s, calls , among other things, for "adjusting income distribution" and "adjusting excessive income". No specifics have been given on how that wealth redistribution will be achieved but it is notable that county-level social conflict and dispute mediation and resolution centers have been also a behind the scenes focus of the "common prosperity" pilot in Zhenjiang and its also the province with the most developed and widespread grassroots "fengqiao model" system

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 53 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Anyone here got any good analysis on the situation in Myanmar. Junta seems to be on the back foot and a couple of (pro china) resistance groups with strong maoist roots that have been participating and co-leading some noticable gains lately. But also large part of the conflict is between them and cartel like militias controling ereas of Myanmar? Are they prominent enough ?

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 55 points 1 year ago

Some continued and sustained strengthening of KKE (Communist Party of Greece) in the last 1-2 years happening. After getting good results in the last parliamentary elections earlier this year (~7.5%) they now poll at ~10% in the first time since who knows when . And that level of support has been pretty much confirmed in the local elections (for regional and mayoral authorities) where communist candidates recieved ~10.5% of the votes country wide if you aggregate and elected mayors in some pretty big cities/populous Athens municapilities..

Yeah they are still at best mid-bad on LGBT issues (tho improving at a very slow pace). Yeah their foreign policy positions are still only ~70% there with some ultra left analysis on China and a couple of other issues. Yeah they have other issues. But they are still a hardboiled Marxist Lenninist party with little to no compromise on their positions and historical analysis or messaging. Very well and stricktly demcent organized ,with deep roots and activities on the union sphere and increasing membership and young support. Pretty much immune to spooks , gladio like infiltration or demsoc turns.

Looking at the state of communist parties and movements in most of the west , at eurocommunism and in general the post war trajectory of most , youdont have that kind of party with that kind of support and organizational strength almost anywhere else. So despite its flaws i cant really complain too much and its a bright spot for sure.

Another positive is that with KKE at this level of strength any EU promoted anti-communist or even anti-protest legislative stuff (that we see start popping up more and more around Europe) is basicaly dead on arival and impossible to implement and will only strengthen it while if KKE was weakened and at like 4% they would have attacked already

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 69 points 1 year ago

He does have one

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 96 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Greece Weather report with hidden commie W

So right now the Thessaly erea (Center of Greece) is being hit with probably the heaviest rainfall in recent years in Europe. Already at 100-500mm in the last ~12 hours in large ereas and cities and it wiil probably rain ~1000mm in overall till Thursday, maybe even more in places. Naturaly things have started to get fucked up and floods have hit the second largest city in the erea (Volos, 80k population). No one can do anything against such rainfall, its not the politicians fault right?

Well the largest city in the erea is Larisa (200k population) , and it is situated basicaly in a hole and bellow sea level and with a major river going through it. Seems like an apocalypse ready to happen. But it wont. Larisa had regural floods at every other downpour and river surge but it also had a communist mayor from 1980 to 1994. Former ELAS captain, imprisoned tortured and exiled for decades and all. Aristidis Lambroulis. He got his hand on any European and state found he could find, brought over Soviet engineers and technicians and basicaly dug up most of the city for years instaling the largest stormwater drainage system in Greece and also split and redirected the river bed inside the city to decrease volume and make flooding less likely. And Larisa hasnt flooded since and is unbothered even by the heaviest rains. Now this one will be a real test and historicaly big but still. It will pull through thanks to the legacy and struggle of a communist administration

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geikei

joined 3 years ago