Literally no global south's goverment was or is under any delusion that China would militarily intervene and fight a war against the US and Israel in Iran. No country was basing any amount of the relations it builts with China on any assumption that they would militarily intervene to defend them. What more most know that China doesnt even have the capability to do so in 90% of the globe currently. If China helps and doesn’t have the means to affect the concrete outcome by force in Iran that would be much worse for its credibility. Beyond military intervention any developing country wanting to create some deterence against the US and their allies can at this point can approach China and try to get in line to buy some non western modern military equipment. Or join some military coordination and tech sharing (for older stuff but still). If they really want to get under China's sphere of influence and protection they can go to Beijing and ask to host Chinese military bases. I cant tell you how positive China's response would be in each individual case and approachment but why tf would any country expect China to use military and economic force protect them if they dont attempt any of these stuff. I made a comment yesterday wondering if Iran even did these stuff earnestly or attempted and expected in any shape or form to have China intervene and help them militarily. Ah and iran also shows that China will trade with you even if you are under economic warfare from the west, which is more usual than actual invasions and matters to countries even more
Can we treat Iran as a big boy regional power with remotely competent leadership and long historical consiousness and agency, look at their choices and approachments regarding military partenerships and buildup and factor that in on the where China or russia are currently, regarding capability and willlingness to directly intervene in iran. As well as where Iran currently stands militarily. Instead of treating it like some big baby that is being let down by its bigger "anti-imperialist" daddies?
Sure China's willingness to intervene in military material, manpower and economic ways can be judged on its own but for that to even be possible we have to know the answer to some questions regarding Iran. Was iran ever open and ever attempted any level of meaningful military alliance with China? Even thought of hosting any military power or bases? Ever tried purchasing en mass any relevant Chinese systems and weapons? After the UN weapons sanctions/ limits or whatever ended in 2020?? iranian army and irgc generals and politcians visited China and Pakistan in official and unoffical capacities multiple times and inspected j-10c and JF-17s. Pakistan itself only procured them a couple of years before. After dragging their feet they made a su-35 deal with Russia AFTER the ukraine war started and have gotten ass as of yet. You cant actualy convince me with certainty that if they really wanted and were desperate for it that they couldnt have made some deals. We cant know details so its no use making accusations but its something to consider. Maybe it was distrust towards china and a pakistan like china dependency and "we got this" delusion, maybe to prioritize their proxies (keeping that bum assad in power and that state working probably cost them more than 100 j-10cs) in the region and domestic assymetric drone and missile capabilities. Maybe China said no no we cant cause US and israel said so but who knows.
What we do know is that Iran had its own views regarding own sovereignty, its military power and what and where it wanted to focus on and spend money and capital within its military strategism. And the urgency and type of approachments or proccurements it made regarding china and russia were a function of that as much as they were of what russia and china itself wanted or didnt want to do or give iran. Iran's view of itself, the west and russia or china along with the internal factions pushing in different directions forged today's Iran-Russia and Iran-China relations and relative standing just as much as China's and Russians foreign policies did. Even for non military, strategic partnership cooperation agreements like the one Iran fast tracked and signed today with Russia. They were literally dragging their feet until they were getting bombed and US tanker aircraft are flying over the Atlantic toward the Middle East. Who's to say irans government and strategism where not as much of a roadblock to some alt universe closer chinese relationship and cooperation that could have made a big difference in this scenario as China's non interverntion or do nothing brainworms or whatever we are calling them.
Even right now as we speak, should China be more desperate to provide militarily help to Iran than Iran is desperate to seek that very same help from China. Are people really sure that the latter condition exists right now, let alone 2 or 5 years ago to a sufficient degree and that the former condition was the issue? What exactly people think Iran's outlook and trust and effort for closer military and political alliance was towards China in recent years ? Their strategy and willingness to use and accept Chinece force and influence for their protection and regional aspirations?
And i repeat this should be judged irrispectively of China's willingness or strategy to do the regional moves or alliances or sell the things iran did or did not, would or would not ask? And where one side stands is directly related to where the other choses to, it goes both ways
Chinese Money Supply Report for March seems pretty strong after credit being anemic last year so good signs for the economy and demand outlooks i guess. And even less pressure regarding the trade war.
M2 money supply +7.0% y/y; Est. +6.1%;
M1 money supply +1.6% y/y; Est. +0.3%;
M0 money supply +11.5% y/y; Prev. +9.7%;
Aggregate financing 5.9 trillion yuan, Prev. 2.23;
New yuan loans 2.23 trillion yuan, Prev. 0.74.
Problem with credit in the last couple of years and especially last year is that since forever land sales were critical to the credit formation process because they drove the leveraged generation of loans through a number of asset collateralization processes. This is where the money for all other local economic activities came from. But that wasnt viable anymore so one of the central sturctual tranformations of the Chinese economy is to delink credit generation from land sales and towards more mature financial insturments, and that cant be seperated from the general crack down of real estate speculation and deflating that bubble. So especially during last year the "fountainhead" for the credit cycle was locked up because of the land finance wind down. Credit going back to normal seems to indicate there has been substantial progress in that aspect and maybe the economy is beyond the more shaky phase.
Mechanically, the credit impulse drives the demand cycle, not vice versa. Availability of money is what determines demand. Demand does not determine availability of money. So demand problems were in large part downstream of that. Reticence from households to spend due to property value deflation was only a secondary problem. The primary problem was squeezed incomes and business revenue from a slow moving liquidity lockup.
Following up to my previous comment regarding the chinese 6th Generation fighter/aircraft test flight footage that emerged today it seems increasingly likely that China has indeed flown what seems to be a second, distinct 6th Generation platform earlier this week. Specificaly Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (They developed the j-35, Chengdu AC developed the j-20 and the 6th Gen aircract my previous post was about. Both practicaly different divisions under state owned umbrella company AVIC) apparently flew on the 22th what some speculate might be prototype for a 6th gen 2-engine (maybe naval fighter?)
https://x.com/OedoSoldier/status/1872296926412173656
https://x.com/RupprechtDeino/status/1872290715851698484
Not a great day for the pentagon
In some huge news we \have footage of what probably is the maiden flight of China's 6th Generation manned fighter/bomber aircraft, and the first one of its kind that has been caught on camera (unclear if the US has even flown a working prototype of their current design, whatever that might be after a dozen requirement revisions). Flown on the birthday of the great helmsman, Mao Zedong no less. (links at the end)
One of the most (only) credible PLA watchers in western circles is posting about it (RickJoe_PLA on twitter, PLARealTalk on reddit) so its most likely legit. The obvious implication here is that China has overtaken the US in terms of next-gen airframe development. This publically flew before NGAD or F/A-XX (US) the status of which is very unclear, and you can argue that this is proof that China now holds the lead in next-gen R&D. For reference F-35, F-22 (US) , Su-57 (Russia), J-20 and J-35(China) are the only 5th Gen platforms around. Based on past timetables an optimistic guess is that this might enter service in 2029-31
Copying some of the stuff posted around. It is seen flown alongside a J-20S as a chaseplane. Not an expert but ppl seem to notice it to be 3 engined, quite big and thin relative to size. J-20 is already decently voluminous as fighters go , but the "J-XD" alongside looks like it's a whole other level. Even with three engines, this thing will have a lot of internal volume to play around with, whatever its role might be.
https://x.com/RickJoe_PLA/status/1872197785040359930
https://x.com/Rational314159/status/1872198848455815332
https://x.com/RupprechtDeino/status/1872210704914366565
https://x.com/RupprechtDeino/status/1872207504807272541
https://x.com/RupprechtDeino/status/1872202725439778856
EDIT: Unconfirmed as of right now, but it seems like Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (They developed the j-35, Chengdu AC developed the j-20 and the 6th Gen this post is about. Both practicaly different divisions under state owned umbrella company AVIC) might have also flown something similar this week. Likely a second distinct 6th Gen platform on a similar stage of development!!
One the one hand it would be very cool if she wins. On the other hand her opponent is a Chinese Boxer and since the final Gold medal count of US vs China will be very close so every Chinese Gold gets us closer to some first grade US copium
To make @Kaplya@hexbear.net post bellow on Gorbachev even worse i remembered this gem of Gorby straight up selling the GDR out ,Mitterand going "bruh what the fuck are you doing, lets support Honecker?" and Gorby being so excited to push ahead with the reunification that even Thatcher being like "shouldnt we slow down a bit?"
On the eve of the famous negotiations in Arkhyz regarding the future of Germany, Gorbachev, through his assistant Chernyaev, contacted Helmut Kohl and began to lament: “I have nothing to feed the people, give three or four billion deutschmarks, and in return you will get everything you need in Arkhyz.” This phrase contains all of Gorbachev. He took loans from the West and was ready to pay for them not only with the integrity of the community of socialist countries, but also with the existence of his own country.
In addition to the negotiations between Gorbachev and Kohl in Arkhyz, in December 1989 the Soviet leader met with French President Mitterrand in Kyiv. Mitterrand invited Gorbachev to fly to Berlin together to support Honecker. Gorbachev’s reaction: “If you want to fly, fly!” But I won’t fly.” I also remember how Thatcher suggested to Gorbachev not to resolve the issue with Germany solely personally, but to create a commission on this matter that would include England, France and the USSR. Thatcher feared that as a result of Gorbachev’s unification, the western part of the country would swallow the eastern, and instead of a single German nation, there would be an “Ossie-Wessie” conflict. Gorbachev, in my presence, reacted to the Iron Lady’s proposal in this way: “I don’t want to wash the British and French’s dirty laundry, but I will support the unification of Germany.” This is how Moscow surrendered the GDR, Honecker, and all the East Germans.
I know for sure that at the negotiations in Arkhyz, Helmut Kohl asked Gorbachev whether Moscow intended to somehow help Erich Honecker, the SED and the entire socialist elite of the GDR. Kohl clearly thought that Moscow intended to help its German generals. But Gorbachev answered him: “These questions are your internal matter, and you know better how to deal with whom.”
But Gorbachev’s decision to “surrender” the GDR was not his personal one. The decision to “surrender” the GDR was suggested to him in June 1989 by George Bush, when the Gorbachev couple were in Washington. On the eve of this historical “clue,” US First Lady Barbara Bush “processed” Raisa Maksimovna “just in case.” These women worked in a well-coordinated tandem on the eve of the collapse of the USSR. In order for Gorbachev to commit another betrayal, one thing was needed: for “dear Barbara” and Raisa Maksimovna to put pressure on the painful ambitions of Mikhail Sergeevich, and he, from the consciousness of his own historical importance, swelled like a soap bubble. In such an inflated state, he received his Nobel Peace Prize in 1990. This was both payment for the betrayal of the socialist bloc, and an advance for the already planned and agreed collapse of the USSR
Смотрите оригинал материала на сайте "Совершенно секретно" : https://www.sovsekretno.ru/articles/banda-chetyryekh-i-gorbachyev/
It could be based if it would be anti-finance Chinese youth but Weibo is a more liberal site comperatively and im pretty sure lot of these complaints are Tier 1 City white collar ppl who saw almost no wage increase this last year are getting a bit "squeezed" with the property sector deleveraging and property values dropping (especially in tier 1 cities) and stock not performing (the horror) and just want more "free market" and liberalism. Blue collar wages and rural/tier 2 and bellow wages are performing much better and those workers feel better about some prices dropping ,have much more to gain by the property sector course correction and dont give much shit about line going down
Some funny and probably positive news from Greece with the political landscape there being both the same and the opposite from other countries in Europe rn.
Its same in the sense that New Democracy (not Maoist but like 80% Macron - 20% Le Pen) governs after getting ~40% in the elections this year all while the socdem to center-left has either been eating shit and imploding (SYRIZA), being PASOK doing nothing after being Pasokified and or being Varoufakis enjoying his internationalist larp party at ~2% outside of parliament. With Syriza's implosion being the funny one since they ate shit in the elections, Tsipras resigned and then they literaly imported some better looking Pete Buttigieg - Beto O'Rourke dude from the US but with worse politics (reaganite, campaigned for Biden in 2008) and made him the leader so now they are about to be polling at signle digits. Like look at this
But there are also opposing trends compared to other countries.
The Greek Communist Party (Hardline MLs who also dont suck too much on LGBT issues anymore despite what the convo was some years ago) has more than doubled their support, consistently hitting 10%+ in recent polls and now has a real chance of actually reaching 2nd place. Looking at the state of communist parties and movements in most of the west , at eurocommunism and in general the post war trajectory of most , you dont have that kind of party that doesnt suck in 90% of issues with that kind of parliamentary numbers + organizational strength at a youth or union level almost anywhere else.
Also contrary to other countries the far right is very split and incoherent . After the collapse of Golden Dawn the overtly anti-migrant fascists, neonazis , ethnonationalists, alt-right nutjobs, religious nutjobs etc are split over 4-6 parties with basicaly no organizational strength or organic reach. They wont and cant reach any really threatening unified movement as of now and they mostly overtly clownish and lame
You can "nuance" the matter all you want but at the end of the day i cant shed many tears for those acting like comprador dogs in the face of genocide, fighting with the ones facilitating it no less. When you not only make a deal with the devil but actively help him and fight for him in such situations, you are one of his demons. No matter the "libertarian socialist" or whatever coating (that so many people still buy into)
Anyone here got any good analysis on the situation in Myanmar. Junta seems to be on the back foot and a couple of (pro china) resistance groups with strong maoist roots that have been participating and co-leading some noticable gains lately. But also large part of the conflict is between them and cartel like militias controling ereas of Myanmar? Are they prominent enough ?
Japan is probably extremely annoyed with the tarrif and trade negotiations and that informs how much they jump on the US train on other matters at the momment. Maybe they are a vassal state but not a VASSAL state and there is some hope for them. Since at least they are showing some stiff resistance to the US saying "blow up your ailing economy and industry completely for america and trump". At least way more than what the germans and british are showed and show