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Image is of the damage caused by an Iranian Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile in Israel, causing dozens of injuries.


Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.

A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?

And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 48 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

As communists, we gotta get our money up. What Ws have we got since 1991? Don’t say China, we just spent a week shitting on them for sleeping through any chance at saving themselves from western domination

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 55 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

If this community actualy thought that China's only chance of saving themselves from western domination is becoming an active party in the Iran-Israel-US war (spoiler alert, Iran didnt even ask them to or ever did anything to create that contigency) then maybe we shouldnt get our money up, we dont deserve any Ws associated with us and should instead focus on groupwatches of China clickbait youtube videos and group reads of non communist geopolitical expert subtracks with readership of 500 people. Because apparently thats the level of understanding of China, the world economy and relevant trajectories we are capable of

[-] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 24 points 3 weeks ago

It’s more the general inaction as genocide and imperialism gets closer and closer to their borders, sorry for any confusion

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 11 points 3 weeks ago

I agree regarding the lack of trade embargo and economic coercion against israel despite having written before how i think it would end up symbolic and not stop the genocide, they should still have done it. Imperialism has been in their borders for half a century in pretty much the same capacity it is now. The only thing that changed is that the balance of hard power now favors China for the first time and will increasingly do so with each passing year. SOft power as well but thats another talk. China knows where imperilism is and is coming from and has made the necessary decisions and has built the hard power to kick its ass when it finaly attacks in desperation. Iran should have done the same with similar urgency and focus. And thats the only thing that matters, cause china is simply too big to be salami sliced, contained, embargoed or stopped by all these ohh so smart economical and geopolitical games. The US could put a comprador regime next to them and that regime will still be forced to continue the same amount of trade and relations with China because their entire economy and state couldnt function otherwise. It is and will become increasingly clear that Imperialism could only hope to actualy achieve its objectives regarding China by an an actual desperation war with not great chances for them and at the same time thats its the only way for imperialism to be kicked away from its borders, where it has been as i said for most of its modern history. Either imperialism will chicken out out given it will probably lose, try and nuke the plannet, try without nuking the plannet and probably losing with a slim chance of success. Whether some reformist becomes leader of Iran and now China only gets the oil it increasingly needs less off without discount and no massive economic cooperation happens with Iran (which the current regime also has been dragging its feet ) doesnt move the needly remotely enough to matter for an actual conflict between China and "the imperialism in its borders"

[-] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 12 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

We shall see. I’d bet on the sea levels rising up to that one tower in Shanghai before they confront the imperialists ravaging the world

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 10 points 3 weeks ago

maybe whatever, but not confronting them in Iran certainly doesnt say shit about whether they will or not in the literal theater and situation everyone knows they will be fighting

[-] Biddles@hexbear.net 20 points 3 weeks ago

I love Hexbear but the geopolitical discourse here is surprisingly naive.

[-] TreadOnMe@hexbear.net 17 points 3 weeks ago

This kind of naive, incoherent and doomerist posting is pretty damn recent, and has basically been escalating since October 7th, with this being the most fevered pitch, which I can barely read anymore because it is so all over the place, and so depressed that it reminds me of how people were posting about the Kursk incursion.

Now mind you, this isn't that, but the idea that we have been able to accurately predict, either positively or negatively, exactly what is going on is laughable, and the amount of doomer screeds and even fairly silly hopium based around that is insane rn. I may as well go talk to some ultras if I wanted to be this armchair general upset.

[-] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 11 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

I don't know if the news mega recently took a nosedive in geopolitical awareness or if it was always this bad but I haven't notice. People were unironically thinking Iran would become another Syria if Khamenei got assassinated, never mind that Assad is still alive so whatever argument they had about a country collapsing when the head of state gets assassinated makes no sense when using Syria as an example. Iran also hasn't suffered through a decade+ civil war.

People were unironically thinking that China would be encircled, never mind that China was actually encircled during the 70s with not a single non-hostile country bordering it save for Pakistan. During the late 60s and 70s, China had border conflicts with at least 4 countries (Soviet Union, India, Vietnam, DPRK). China's nearby waters were also next to countries completely hostile to the PRC (ROK, Japan, Philippines, Indonesia). Hong Kong was still a British colony. China had to deal with Asian NATO called SEATO when it was far weaker than it is today.

But SEATO is no more while the PRC is still around. Every country save for India and the Philippines has much warmer relationship with China, Hong Kong and Macau are now part of China, and almost every single separatist movements, even Taiwanese separatism to a certain extent, have been defeated and discredited. The imperialists went from supporting Tibetan separatism, an actual formidable separatism given the demographic and terrain, to supporting Uyghur separatism, a separatism that doesn't have any real demographic advantage, and Hong Kong separatism, a separatism that is DOA because Mainlanders hate Hong Kongers anyways.

[-] BynarsAreOk@hexbear.net 6 points 3 weeks ago

Pretty L shitty comment, some superiority complex nonsense trying to argue "the CPC knows better" when It clearly doesn't matter how many effort posts one makes showing how China is following neoliberal reform advice from westerners and the Biden admin.

That dipshit Carl Zha literaly dropping the mask "Chinese people don't owe you anything." I'd rather certain people embrace their inner ghoulish and abandon the banner of communism than to continue this shitty larping.

If the global south can't demand anything from China, not even a fucking token gesture because "geopolitics too complex for you to understand" then I'd rather they stop larping as a socialist, they could be nothing further from it.

Yes we better watch the YT grifters I agree, at least it feels much better to clap on every "China W" delusional shit than to admit they've never really pledged anything. We're idealistic, sitting here thinking we're building world communism while in reality we're already in bed with the ghouls who are destroying the world.

[-] jack@hexbear.net 30 points 3 weeks ago

Don't say China, we just spent a week shitting on them for sleeping through any chance at saving themselves from western domination

Not me! It's pretty clear Iran failed to build the necessary relationship from their end because of the feckless liberals in leadership. China sells exactly the advanced weapons systems Iran needed to Pakistan. Iran could've been willing to really build that with China but wanted "independence" (read: respect from the west they will never receive). And China STILL was Iran's biggest trading partner, building the rail line, supplying the materials for Iran's arms industry, etc. China doesn't make dramatic moves but it doesn't need to and because they come at an enormous cost of their own. China keeps winning at the key process of becoming more powerful than the US and breaking apart western hegemony. China won't swoop in to save the day anywhere anytime soon, but it will continue to change the global balance in power in favor of the forces of anti-imperialism.

[-] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 12 points 3 weeks ago

China keeps winning while the rest of the world keeps losing. That doesn’t sound like a winning equation but I hope you’re right

[-] jack@hexbear.net 22 points 3 weeks ago

This simply isn't accurate. China has surplanted the US as the leading trading partner of almost every country on earth, creating far more room for the global south to maneuver and pressure their own development. All across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, the US's power has been in decline. We're in a second pink tide in Latin America, including the best political leadership Mexico has had in a century, the solidification of the PSUV in Venezuela, and the loss of America's staunchest anti-communists ally to pro-China, any-Israel Gustavo Petro. France has lost almost all of its military presence in Africa, including but not limited tothe obvious anti-imperialist crown jewel the AES. Vietnam is closer to China than it's been since the early days of the revolution and following the same path of economic development. Russia is winning (slowly) in Ukraine while the imperial European polity slithers away to global irrelevance, as is the fate of all US allies.

And despite what some on here will tell you, by every single metric, dollar hegemony is in decline. China has rapidly built a replacement for the SWIFT system and is shifting more and more of its trade away from the dollar. No, it did not deal a dramatic death blow to the dollar - because the US, as we can see, is not an irrelevant power unable to deal death and destruction. Instead, China is overseeing and directing the managed decline of the American financial empire while building socialism at home for 15% of the world's population.

Not that China is beyond reproach. There is no excuse for their continued trade with Israel, though that too is declining precipitously. But generally, we should recognize that China is, in fact, the heart of global anti-imperialism. Without a doubt, the number one reason for the dramatic decline in US power is the steady leadership of the Communist Party of China and their studious, strategic implementation of the immortal science of Marxism-Leninism.

[-] BynarsAreOk@hexbear.net 5 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

China has surplanted the US as the leading trading partner of almost every country on earth, creating far more room for the global south to maneuver and pressure their own development. All across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, the US's power has been in decline.

You're spitting optimistic nonsense, I'm sorry, but if you're proposing that Brazil's complete de-industrialization is good because they're getting cheap shit from China instead of the US then I'd present you with Lula literaly signing 25 years outdated trade deals with the EU and Mercosur that further cements the entire South America as a backwards commodity exporter region. Brazil's interest rate is at a record 15%, meanwhile several global south countries are defaulting on their debt, Sri lank, Ethiopia, Argentina, Bangladesh etc... The global south continues on a path of death and destruction. China's replacing the US changed literaly nothing in this trajectory.

BRICS future is destined to remain as un-industrialized and super-expoited. China has made zero difference in this area.

The Amazon forest will become a desert thanks to farmers illegal deforestation, the same ones that export to China and the US and Chinese nationalists will have the audacity to say that its a good thing, at least I can import shit through Aliexpress lol. God these idiots are already our enemies.

[-] jack@hexbear.net 8 points 3 weeks ago

if you're proposing that Brazil's complete de-industrialization is good because they're getting cheap shit from China instead of the US

Yeah, that's definitely what I said

I'm sorry that China isn't literally saving the entire world from capitalism and imperialism by itself. Building socialism for 1.4 billion people and undermining US power across the globe through peaceful mutual development is truly underdelivering. The PRC has done more for the process of human liberation and development than literally any entity in human history. It has its limits and its flaws, but frankly the rest of us need to be working to fix our own shit instead of blaming China for not saving the day.

[-] BynarsAreOk@hexbear.net 4 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

You literaly said trading partner. You said it gave them "room to maneuver". I literaly gave you an example that this resulted in a country like Brazil literaly signing yet another imperialist deal with the west.

Building socialism for 1.4 billion people and undermining US power across the globe through peaceful mutual development is truly underdelivering.

I literaly gave you multiple examples where this isn't happening. If you don't want to accept it its your problem. The world only looks peaceful around China's borders, what liberal nonsense.

[-] Jabril@hexbear.net 10 points 3 weeks ago

China has invested hundreds of billions into the global south and has demonstrably raised wages of probably billions of people in the process. I remember a paper from a few years ago that demonstrated it with China telecom expansion. China providing affordable phone and Internet access for people who otherwise didn't have it increased real wages for impoverished people.

I was just watching the China Report on breakthrough news and they cited an increase of Indonesia's state income from 3 billion to 32 billion in two years after China invested 30 billion in nickel processing facilities there.

These are just two examples of what I assume to be hundreds where China is taking the money they make and investing it around the world in a way that is mutually beneficial and improves the lives of people in ways that most people probably aren't aware of. Of course the relationship isn't totally equal, China is coming out with the better end of the deal in most cases, but we also have many examples of responsible state leadership from partner countries negotiating for better deals and getting them. Gyude Moore and Varoufakis have spoken about this at length.

So it isn't accurate to say China is winning while everyone else loses. China is certainly doing a lot of good around the world which has real impacts on average people; infrastructure, employment, healthcare, and more. They are sharing their wealth in a way that is building up the productive forces of the world

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 7 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

Everyone thought the J-10s where barely better than Iran's existing air force for the last 10 years. After the UN weapon ban was over Iran most likely could have gotten into a program and deal without Brandon giving too much shit. Sure that probably means they had to spend less money making 50 different missile types and keeping Assad in power despite the latters best efforts not to be. But yeah everything you said

[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 24 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

The 1990s were a really bad decade for communists and leftists, I guess a big W was Chavez being elected in 1998 (first as a social-democrat-esque president, he became more openly radical after the 2002 and 2004 coups). That led to Cuba gaining some support, and the start of the first pink wave (1998 - 2016).

Even Paraguay, the most right-wing country in Latin America, elected a Christian Socialist as their president, who was removed from power in a legislative coup that the USA and Taiwan supported. And I guess the Zelaya family in Honduras turning from Conservative/Neoliberal to Democratic Socialist was a big deal, so much that the USA/Hillary Clinton did everything possible to remove Manuel Zelaya from power in 2009, his wife did win the 2021 presidential election.

I think Chavez basically ressurected Socialism for the 2000s, at least in Latin America. While most Socialism in the 21th Century parties are rarely openly communists, most are just liberal or socdem parties, they usually do have good international politics and tend to at least invest money on social programs instead of just telling the working class to stop being "lazy".

[-] Frogmanfromlake@hexbear.net 23 points 3 weeks ago

Nepal if you count what happened there, even if it didn’t result in a fully AES state.

[-] Inui@hexbear.net 24 points 3 weeks ago

They have a whole history exhibit in Kathmandu commemorating the Maoist uprising and fall (murder) of the royal family. Its in a building next to the old royal palace. Its not explicitly communist but talks positively about the uprising. Its very cool.

[-] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 15 points 3 weeks ago

Hmm I’ll give that a lowercase w

[-] cinnaa42@hexbear.net 17 points 3 weeks ago

There's a lot of potential in various organisations around the world. A number of countries have come close to revolution in the past few years alone. Communist organisations in most countries have experienced some kind of uptick in membership and activity over the past few years and unaffiliated communists have grown in number greatly. The campus uprisings wouldn't have happened without a critical mass of communists and fellow travellers being there to make them happen. The movement now needs to mature, building on the lessons and practical experiences of the past decades.

[-] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 15 points 3 weeks ago

Which countries came close to revolution?

[-] cinnaa42@hexbear.net 25 points 3 weeks ago

Kenya, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Chile are four OTOH in the past few years. The former three being triggered by debt crises (e.g. very classic cause of revolutions in world history) and the latter being more of a spontaneous revolt against neoliberalism. Kenya's CPM-K is worth looking into as they've played a significant role in the anti-IMF protests. Another promising candidate OTOH is Nigeria where communists are organising against police brutality and facing state repression for doing so.

[-] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 16 points 3 weeks ago

You’re a greater optimist than I, hopefully you’re right

[-] cinnaa42@hexbear.net 9 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

I'm pretty pessimistic about things overall and struggle with motivation most days, but the struggle will go on no matter what. Indigenous ppl in north america are still struggling on after 500 years of horrific genocide that reduced them to a tiny % of the population. States and movements may rise and fall but the masses of people upon whose backs these things are built will never be truly beaten.

[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 15 points 3 weeks ago

Bukina Faso? I guess it was more a military coup, but the junta seems left-leaning/progressive.

[-] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 16 points 3 weeks ago

Love AES, I guess I’m wondering for communists specially. I also love the Pink Tide, but despite communist influences, it appears that the liberals won out (Ecuador, Argentina, Bolivia if you’re harsh)

[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 11 points 3 weeks ago

Pink Tide goverments aren't usually communists, they are what they themselfs call Progressive Ideology, which is an alliance of anti-neoliberal/social-conservative/far-right groups and parties, and inside that coalition theres usually liberals and even some nationalists and conservatives.

The problem is when the socdems become dependent on support from these people (Brazil, Chile and Colombia). At least in Venezuela the reverse happened and the Socialists won the power stuggle with the pro-goverment Liberals and Conservatives remaining in goverment but with limited power and influence.

[-] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 8 points 3 weeks ago

I’m aware they weren’t communists, which is why I’m tentative to include, say, the Correa government, as a W for communism

[-] plinky@hexbear.net 8 points 3 weeks ago

did we expect to get them?

morality of imperial core was always dogshit vector, thus only immiseration will wake us. until 2008 it didn't even start to happen.

so one can imagine drones buzzing by, forever (socdem)

or porkies getting greedy, with sporadic nihilistic violence slowly crystallizing in class awareness

this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2025
178 points (98.4% liked)

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