What else am I missing?

The fact that 90% of people don't give a shit about ads, privacy or their operating system in general. They want a machine to open a browser, that's it. If Windows comes pre-installed, they'll use Windows.

The only realistic chance we've got is that MS shoots itself in the foot once more by all that Recall crap and businesses drop Windows. But that's a long shot.

Most of the points listed here don't matter a hoot to the average user.

There's more than a few reasons why Linux can't make the jump to holding a dominant position in the desktop market.

One is simply preinstallation. For companies (and therefore the general public) to adopt the Desktop Linux, they'd need it simply to be installed for them, with a Desktop Environment like Gnome or KDE.

Secondly is updates. As much as Linux users tout the control they have over when and how updates take place, and how much Windows users will always complain about having to update their systems, until system updates on Linux are made automatic (or at least given the option to be made automatic), there cannot be a mainstream Linux Desktop. This means updates that happen very much like Windows, no administrator/sudo password, just happens on reboot regularly.

The reason for this is mainly that the average user would never update unless forced, and then when something inevitably breaks, they are left, as always, frustrated that their computer just didn't work as expected forever without any upkeep, understanding, or updates.

Lastly is support. And this is multifaceted. By support I mean software support by companies like Adobe. I also mean a much farther reaching swath of random devices that literally plug and play like on Windows.

As an aside, I'll also say that since there is a move towards Wayland, there also needs to be a No Configuration Necessary way of running Nvidia on Wayland. This is less a Linux issue, and more a Nvidia one, but until pretty much any and all hardware works on Linux the way it just works on Windows, this sadly affects Linux Desktop adoption as more and more of the Linux Desktop ecosystem moves towards forcing Wayland adoption.

Finally I'll say that the Microsoft corporation at large obviously relies mainly on Corporate Adoption of its products and services, and that the Windows Desktop is simply one part of that greater whole. Their approach to competing with Apple and their walled garden ecosystem has been to slowly but surely create their own, its just so much larger you forget there are walls. They have done this by absorbing more and more of the tech ecosystem either by acquisition, invention, or otherwise. Examples ot this include Bing and All Search Engines that Use it, the pushing of TypeScript into JavaScript Development, the predominance and proliferation of VSStudio/VSCode in modern software development, their heavy involvement with OpenAI and aggressive pushing of AI products/services, their acquisition of Github and subsequent further expansion of influence over software development and distribution, and much much more.

Despite the privacy invasion, enshittefication of the user experience, and their various other ways they have mistreated their users specifically via the direction they've taken Windows, Microsoft has established itself as THE Desktop, as THE Workstation, and as THE company that comes to mind when the average person mentions "computer", and the majority of people associate computer related productivity and play with Windows.

For all the advances made to Desktop Linux, especially in recent years, it is unlikely that Linux Desktop adoption will ever proliferate to the kinds of mainstream adoption that its accolades desire. Until Linux (or at least a Linux distribution) can demonstrate what I've mentioned above (preinstallation, automatic/automated updates, and wide spread software/hardware support from various 3rd party vendors) along with demonstrating a work flow/user experience that is somehow both familiar to the user and also better than the experience on Windows, then the day of the Linux Desktop will never come.

This aforementioned demonstration, btw, would have to become obscenely apparent to the average every day computer user who just wants to get their work done, play a Video Game, and watch Netflix, all without having to ever even know what a terminal emulator is.

I love Linux, and I think the Linux Desktop is not only a superior user experience, but is just better in general than Windows. But the average user I've encountered generally hates their Computer if it doesn't work as expected 110% of the time. Linux, and honestly computers, will never be able to do that, but the closer the Desktop (and user facing GUIs more broadly) get to creating that illusion of "it all just works all the time", the more adoption you'll see.

There one glaring issue. Most people don't really even know what an operating system is and some of the people I talk to think Linux is a manufacture.

I literally bring up Linux to my friend when they are having trouble getting windows to work and they say I think I have a linux. They mean it's a Lenovo but they seem pretty confused about the idea of installing a different OS on their machine. This isn't just older people but 20 something year olds (about my age).

It's funny to me but I try to be patient and help them with their problems anyway.

Dethrones? No. Not in the sense it will overtake Windows in numbers.

Grows its gamer ‘market share’? Absolutely.

No. Nobody cares, no matter what MS does. They can literally crap on users faces and they’ll happily lick it as long is Windows is the supported platform. And it will stay like that for decades to come.

We can expect some growth, because the tech savvy PC enthusiasts might want to look for alternatives, and if the desktop Linux is good enough, some will stick to it, some will go back, as it was always for last 30 years.

I honestly don't care about dethroning windows or anything related to it. All that matters to me is that my Linux system works the way I need it to....

Anybody seriously believing this has a misunderstanding of how little people care about what OS they use and how much they care that it works the way they expect.

You know what gets ppl to use Linux? 100% Software compatibility out of the box and OEM who preinstall Linux distros.

Barely anyone outside the bubble oft techies and enthusiasts cares. You have to BRING it to the users. For most oft them comfort is king after all.

Ah yes, this year is definitely the year of the Linux desktop. For real this time!

• Windows 11 getting Copilot+ Recall

The problem is usability for non power users. As a server environment nothing beats it but man the UI on these apps have some horrendous defaults and the CLI is everywhere. KDE still can't get rounded corners right.

What else am I missing?

Global Linux usage stats vs global Windows usage stats for PC Desktops.

We say this every fucking year! Come on, this is getting ridiculous! Stop it! There will never be a year of the Linux desktop and if anything, this post shows why.

So much of the Linux community is utterly detached from what really matters to most users and focus on things that 80% of people won't ever understand, care about or even use.

We focus on this and meanwhile, little quality of life features constantly get ignored when these are the real things that users will encounter and that will piss them off. They get treated as trivial. They get ignored in favor of other things.

Somebody mentioned it here. I saw it and I didn't need them to mention it to want to say it. It's already something that's pissing me off. On Fedora for my Framework Laptop there is no way to adjust the scrolling speed on my trackpad which is moronically fast.

We are on the 40th release of Fedora, the 46th release of GNOME, and somehow this still isn't baked in. I still have to go look around and use the fucking terminal to do something this basic. When some of them try Linux and will eventually push them to go back to Windows. And when users complain about this, what do we get? A bunch of elitists telling them to fuck off to go back to Windows, which I also saw as responses to this complaint about the trackpad.

Listen, Linux is an amazing project and I love it. I daily drive it. I don't use Windows anywhere in my life. I haven't touched OS in like two years at the very least. So many things that we are celebrating as brand new things that are finally working properly are things that already work by default on Windows and have been for years. We're not going to convince people by mentioning that, "oh, we fixed this thing that's been working forever on Windows." It works on Linux now. People need more than this.

You want to know the sad truth? Here we go. We, collectively here, users of platform like Lemmy, are a vocal minority who are detached from the reality of most users. We care about ads, we care about privacy and so on, but the reality is most that people don't. Most people won't even notice that those things are there. For so many people, Windows is just the thing that stands between them and launching Chrome. It already works for them. There's no reason for them to switch.

We are all way too invested in what runs on our computers and we forget that we are just us. Most people are not like us. Privacy scandals stop us from using stuff like social media and so on, but it clearly hasn't stopped most of the world.

People heard about the shit that Meta was and is doing. Did people stop using Instagram? No, they didn't. People know what Google is doing, how many of them switched to DuckDuckGo? A clinical moron turning the platform into a far-right haven didn't stop most users from using Twitter.

The API bullshit didn't stop most users from using Reddit. Sure there were protest, but I guarantee you that 99% who took part in the blackout just went back to it after. A lot of us didn't. We left. We're here now. But we're still a tiny minority.

Ask a Firefox user did telling Chrome users that privacy was important ever worked? I'm sure you will get examples of it working but it's a minority. Most people don't give a shit and they use Chrome.

I don't have a solution. I'm sorry, I made this long-ass comment but I don't have much else to say. I don't have a good solution to this problem.

I love how delusional people here are.

Joking lol but serious that it will never happen. Windows has waaay too much of a monopoly for that to never happen.

Like wtf, am I supposed to tell my mom to use the terminal to download ms word? Oh wait sorry you can use libre office! It's the same but...... Well it looks different. And isn't as functional.

My personal definition of "the year of the Linux desktop" is when we hit a market share % that starts to convince companies to take Linux support seriously. I don't think we're that far off from that happening and if Microsoft keeps adding in these terrible "features" to windows, more people will move over. Is 2024 the year for that? Probably not but I wouldn't be surprised if it happens before 2030.

When windows 10 stops working is the better chance. Even then, not convinced it'll be year of Linux.

It is a good list ( from an “alternative to Windows” point of view ). In particular, you make a good case for the gaming side of things.

Unfortunately, even if that is all Linux needs, the hordes take time to arrive. The big impact of changes this year will be seen in the migration numbers 3 years from now. The biggest opportunity is probably the Windows 10 EOL and that is not until the end of next year. By then, many gamers will have Windows 11 capable hardware.

I do think that gamers and devs are the two groups likely to lead the charge on the next wave of Linux adoption. .NET dev in particular already has a lot of momentum on Linux with the transition from desktop to cloud and the primacy of Linux in container based workflows. Things are not quite there yet for .NET mobile dev on Linux. I bet most .NET devs that have left Windows are using Macs these days though. That said, that means they are already using tooling quite easily migrated to Linux including bath Rider and VS Code as you say. In the cloud, .NET must be “deployed” more to Linux than to Windows by now.

That last point is the most important I think. Windows is no longer the most important platform for Microsoft—Azure is. Microsoft is quite happy to let you use Linux on Azure. In fact, Azure pipelines and .NET itself are faster on Linux at this point. It is still “developers, developers, developers” for Microsoft but it is now more cloud than desktop. That changes the role of Windows at Microsoft.

I think it is perhaps less what we think about Windows and more about what Microsoft thinks about Windows that matters.

The other crown jewel is Office. Office 365 is a subscription. It is increasingly a “cloud” offering as well. Soon, they will not care about Windows as a delivery vehicle for Office either.

As Windows starts to matter less strategically, the question will increasingly be how to monetize the Windows user base more heavily. That is more ads, more data mining, more AI, and an increasingly crap experience. More and more, Windows Product Managers will be rewarded for their short-term gains and incremental revenue. Stewardship of the platform will move further and further into the background.

That is how Linux will win.

It won’t be this year though.

I switched from Windows to Linux full time around Feb 2024.

I think Linux is ready for desktop use.

https://yotld.com/

You forgot "Recall".

I wanted to make a wordplay here, but I couldn't find one.

Anyway, a lot of people are worried about the OS remembering everything you are doing like it's taking screenshots all the time.

For my part, that would be a big no-no.

There’s absolutely zero reason to expect Linux mass adoption as it is NOT happening anytime soon. What can happen instead is increased market share to something like 10% and even that is super optimistic from a long time user perspective.

The focus should mainly go to relatively technical users that can at least manage basic stuff and not mass market consumers. It’s good when people try Linux, yes, but it’s even better when they find it useful, it does what they need and they keep using it, not just trying and go back to a primarily supported OS that’s maybe invasive but “at least it works”.

This isn't the first time Microsoft has pushed telemetry and malware in its OS. But I think they have finally crossed the line with CoPilot. What they want to do with it is so incredibly obvious and intrusive that most people just won't stand for it.

Dethrone? Probably not.

Start taking up a noticeable share of the demographic of systems? Probably

Before this year is out I'm switching my systems to Linux and before Windows 10 EoL I'm having to switch some relatives to Linux because their systems can't handle Windows 11 and I'm not going to buy them new systems.

that AI-generated file really wasn't necessary

linux is at single digit percentages and that's including steamdecks so... no, not even clsoe

I hope you're right. What I did was let my kids use Linux, whatever distro they wanted, and they have used Windows only at school. I think this is the way to do it, expose this growing generation to good software and keep them away from the enahitified ones, while explaining the importance and joy of privacy.

If we all do that with our kids, the next generation will have less sheep following all the commercial crap out there.

Nah, the average "just werks" user won't leave Windows even if it took money out of its credit card.

What else am I missing?

Large scale manufacturers pre-installing Linux? Readily available multi-language support for home users? Coherent UI regardless of computer and distro underneath. Billions on lobbying money spent on politicians for favorable policy crafting? Billions spent on marketing campaigns to actually sell the idea to the masses who simply don't care any of your points (or any technical reasons, privacy or anything else that might be top of mind of the current Linux userbase).

I'd say Linux has a good chance of capturing 5-6% of the market in the coming years if lucky (I believe we're somewhere around 4% at the moment), unless one of the big tech monopolies decides to start throwing money into it (Like Google did with Android)

Here's the hilarious reality:

I installed Fedora Workstation on a laptop yesterday, just to check out how that's going.

I'm probably reverting it to Windows because there is no tool to adjust the scroll speed of the touchpad.

And that's what that takes.