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this post was submitted on 02 Sep 2023
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Question is, are they a net positive?
They’re getting in less collisions. Autonomous vehicles in SF have only been at fault in one death. And it was a dog, and a safety driver was behind the wheel in the AV.
AVs are going have problems, but are those problems worse than the ones human drivers cause?
In order to save lives we need to study the bigger picture and not get hyper focused on individual tragedies.
In order to save lives, USA needs to get off car centric transportation. More cars is not the solution. Neither is automating them in urban and dense environments. AVs belong on the highways only.
We are trying to solve a problem with “tech” that has been a solved problem by other countries for decades. Netherlands is a great example of how to move people around efficiently without using cars as the primary mode of transportation. Amazing public transportation. Towns and cities designed around alternative forms of transportation such as walking, or biking. Infrastructure is cheaper to maintain since it lasts longer and is not constantly pounded on by multi ton vehicles.
Combined with e-bikes to “flatten” hills and make distance traveling easier, we could really make some amazing improvements to city design.
I agree that the US actually needs more public transport. Fatalities aside, that’s often going to be the best solution for congestion and climate change. Congestion alone in SF is still a fucking nightmare. SF is small as fuck, but driving across that town between 3 and 7pm can take 1-2 hours.
As a local, I feel like the current state of MUNI, BART, CalTrans, AC Transit, and cycling are not going to be a good fit for EVERY single use case. If I’m injured, am carrying bulky stuff, or am trying to hit up a part of town that would take too long with public transport, an AV EV could be a good solution.
I usually try to avoid cars in SF. They’re often more trouble than they’re worth. But, there are times, IMHO, when cars solve a current route and use case better than alternative solutions. And it if they’re still going to be used for certain use cases, it would be nice if they killed fewer people.
Why not a car share instead? Or just an Uber?
Because the goal is to have an Uber that removes human error.
I'd say this article shows that error is still a problem.
It very much is, but the errors are different. An AV isn’t going to get distracted by their phone, by an argument, by rubbernecking, etc. But an AV might encounter something that the sensor AI is confused by, and the cars might Mitch McConnell themselves in the middle of the road. So far at-fault accidents are way down with the AVs, but stalls are way up.
Thank you, that at least is a good argument.
Driverless cars could really help solve the "last mile" issue in many transit systems.
I dislike taking transit because I have to take one unpredictable bus from my house to the train, take the train the majority of the distance, then take another unpredictable bus to my destination.
The issue of infrequent buses through neighborhoods isn't going to be solved anytime soon. But if I could take an electric driverless car from my house to the train I would be a lote more likely to take public transit over just taking my existing car.
US will never stop using cars in the foreseeable future.
There may be an argument for major cities, but not for the rest of the nation.
That said, it's way safer driving outside of major cities. Fewer pedestrians, fewer cars, more space. It's also more efficient.
Saying "get away from cars" just screams to me that you live in a major city and think life outside of one doesn't matter.
Right. Until you need to carry something or go grocery shopping.
Sorry, you're wrong. Small towns absolutely need to use cars unless they want to go back to being hunter/gatherers.
How far was your grocery store?
Yeah. Around here some people live at least 30 minutes from their nearest grocery store.
And that's by car.
Except for the surrounding people that use cars to reach them.
I don't think you know what constitutes a 'small town.'
You can live in a small town and still be 30 minutes away from a grocery store, which is located in a different town.
Might want to drive around the US a bit more. It seems your idea of life outside of major cities is skewed based on your own, limited experience.
You raise a good point. It would be possible for these smaller communities to become less dependent on cars if the services they needed were closer.
I would actually really like to see that, but in today's climate I don't think there's much viability for opening and maintaining grocery stores in small towns. Perhaps a few decades ago, but now that power is so concentrated, any grocery store that isn't a part of a larger conglomerate wouldn't be able to compete with the big names on price. It will almost always be cheaper to drive 30 min to a Walmart than to shop at your local Harp's. (I've checked.)
Don't forget to throw in the part where we have to fix humanity. If a 35 year old woman doesn't feel safe alone around random people now, imagine how they are going to feel sending their 17 year old son/daughter into those scenarios.
Many people currently use their cars as a safe space. Drive to the grocery store, get out and quickly rush in. Safer inside. Get done what they need and rush to their car on the way out. Public transport turns that into a 4 hour ordeal of no safe spots except in the store. Bus stops and buses aren't safe spots. That rando that creeps you out in the parking lot now, you are going to spend 20 minutes with walking back to the bus stop and waiting with them.
Why are they on this bus with me... do I get off by my residence or do I get off elsewhere to hope I lose them before they follow me home. That might be more dangerous.
You forget one thing, only 17% of the US population live in a rural setting. A huge majority lives in the cities and don't really need a car. The rest of the nation doesn't matter, they can have their cars if 83% switch to something else.
I'm not forgetting anything, lol.
Yes, city people can transition to a mostly car-less life.
San Francisco is a major city
Ok...?
I definitely think self-driving cars are the future.
That said, we shouldn't rush and put them out before they are ready.
Have they been rushed though? It’s been a decade of testing in public. Regulators forced AV companies to go through multiple trials with increasing levels of road density, vehicle autonomy, and fleet size. After a decade of trials and reporting safety data, SF is only now letting the general public hail an AV at any hour of the day.
You are not saving lives by blocking emergency services.
Thats not what hes asking. Humans are notoriously awful drivers. Does gradually replacing humans with AI drivers save more lives than unintentionally blocking an ambulance?
Good lord.
Read what he says with your thinking cap on.
How many drivers cause this exact thing every week? You're only hearing about this because it's novel.
I completely agree with you but unfortunately public opinion doesn't always work that way. People are irrational and don't understand how numbers and statistics work. They hear 'driverless car caused fatality' and brains will just turn off.
Won't someone think of the children?!?
That's correct. But we don't have the data. Musk, for example, won't release it for Tesla and forced the NHSTA to redact it.
And the raw data is no good anyway. You have to compare autopilot systems with similar road situations (eg mostly highway, or established taxi zones) and similar drivers/cars (they're not a random selection of all demographics and models).
It's absolutely correct to say that we need to compare the new with the old, not simply present statistics in isolation. But we don't have the data and it needs an established independent body to analyse it because the analysis is too easy to manipulate to leave in the hands of the companies that stand to profit.