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this post was submitted on 30 Jul 2024
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I think that even US oligarchs would rather rule over what remains of their empire than spend the rest of their days living like rats in a bunker. Pushing the nuclear button is a no win scenario.
Not saying a nuclear exchange is impossible, but I have seen nuclear scientists discuss just how (relatively) little nuclear weapons going off could really fuck up the planet.
About 100 bombs the size of the one dropped on Hiroshima (relatively tiny, basically a tactical nuke today) going off in cities could potentially fuck up the climate of an area the size of a continent for several years.
If the US and Russia launched about 5% of their arsenal at each other, that’s enough to potentially end most human life on earth.
When two nuclear powers go to war, once they start launching the nukes there is no off-ramp, no real way to de-escalate.
Long way of saying I agree, the oligarchs of the US have to know what a war with China would actually bring. And like you said, better to rule in a diminished US than die the same death as the proles they hate.
Indeed, I think the real danger is that US might start a conventional war with China thinking they could win, and then when things inevitably start going south, there's a lot of potential for stupid shit to happen. RAND actually published a study on a conventional war with China, and this is the level of insanity we're dealing with https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html
Jfc you weren't kidding, these people are actually detached from reality. Amerikkkans really can't comprehend the reality of war since they haven't actually experienced it as a population since the civil war. 100% the war would start with America attacking, getting a bloody nose, losing a carrier or two, and launching nukes at China.
Indeed, it's just absolutely surreal stuff.
And even the civil war was very restrained to the population compared to what USA always did to others.
The next question is whether the oligarchs can prevent the True Believers from taking over and deciding to nuke their way to Kingdom Come
Indeed, and that's the really scary part of all this.
I am absolutely sure once carrier groups start going down America would panic. I think they might even make the calculus that a limited nuclear strike would not be enough to provoke a full nuclear response, especially if they think China would be reticent to start a full nuclear war for humanitarian reasons.
that's basically what the RAND paper I linked below argues as well
Yeah if you analyse the USA as you would a child you come to the same answer.
When me and my sibling were very young, I was older and hence bigger and ostensibly more mature than my younger sibling. If my younger sibling wasn’t getting their own way they’d worked out they could punch me in a non-sensitive location (shoulder, thigh etc) and I wouldn’t be able to respond other than verbally as mom would be angry at me.
I feel like the USA would be the same as my younger sibling, in the case of not getting their own way, they would go nuclear, but rather than trying to nuke Beijing and the rest, it would try to do a limited number of strikes on maybe a key port with a large Chinese naval presence, power or fuel or ammunition manufacturing etc to level the score. Then they would hope that after this limited strike, their opponents would be forced to show restraint, much like me and my sibling with the threat of mom being mad, but for America and China the threat of ‘mom’ would literally be M.A.D.
accurate
You assume that they are rational actors, when there is ample evidence they are not
unfortunately, what we're seeing in Ukraine does indeed show that there might not be much rationality at play