No, you got it, a whole lot of the predicted losses are pretty highly correlated to areas that actuaries (who work for insurance companies and use highly advanced climate models based off of the science) predict will suffer increasing numbers and frequencies of climate disasters.

That's definitely a major hurricane zone. A major storm hits that coast multiple times per decade. It's worse than the east coast of Florida.

When you buy a house on the Louisiana/ Texas coast, you are buying at least 5 hurricanes over the next decade. I've been through many hurricanes in Florida, and even the mild ones are scary as Hell. The worst ones are absolutely terrifying beyond belief.

I can see why people leave, and wouldn't want to buy there, but where else are you going to go? California has fires that destroy entire towns, and also earthquakes. The Midwest/Plains has tornadoes. The north has crippling blizzards. Even Hawaii had the Maui fire, and has volcanoes. Almost everywhere has the potential for floods, and there are several dormant volcanoes and earthquake faults in unusual parts of the country that could wake up any time, and ruin everybody's day.

Weather is almost everywhere, and it hates humans.

What do you mean 1/3 of the country won't be able to get home insurance within ten years?

Climate change?

That's stupid.

You have to have home insurance to be able to pay a mortgage?

WTF that's even more stupid!

As someone who will probably never afford a house because they've inflated beyond all semblance of reason, I'd need something closer to 50% to be remotely affordable, though I have a feeling that without systemic changes, a crash like that would just death spiral into chaos.

You gotta realize how much financial loan leverage goes into the real estate market.

It may not seem huge to you as a single potential buyer... but a whole lot of people's business models are based on 'price always go up' and set their margins and leverage accordingly.

That all unwinds, in a slow motion, much larger scale version of watching an idiot daytrader or cryptotrader lose everything in a flash from compounding margin calls.

The level of leverage isn't nearly as high, but the level of actual money involved is insanely more.

Know anyone that is currently or will soon need to do a HELOC or other reverse mortgage type thing to pay for something?

Well they may now be even more fucked as their home depreciates.

It will probably go down more over time, the problem is that the market has already been dominated by large home buying groups like Zillow and Black Rock and Berkshire Hathaway who can overbid cash on every home that goes up for sale. This will further consolidate property into the hands of the property owning class, not usher in a new period of people buying their own homes again. Especially if the dollar weakens and prices of necessities stay high, it will be less and less individual home buyers who have an opportunity to take advantage of any price drops.

I'm not in the market but do look and when you're playing with hundreds of thousands of dollars, knocking off maybe 5k feels like peanuts to me, too

I presume it’s the merciless wild animal that murders me for being unable to afford housing.

…wait, no, that’s the police.

If your parents are anything like mine, they will gleefully ignore all sound advice designed to protect them financially or just improve their lives generally, even if they agree with the logic.

Because acknowledging that their child could possibly know more about anything than them on any subject would conflict with their ... well, quite literally apocalyptic levels of paternalistic boomer narcissism.

But more seriously: check your local market conditions and projections, certain areas are still actually appreciating or mostly stable, but many areas are set for a significant decline.

... Its mostly, but not entirely, places that are going to be turbofucked by climate change intensified disasters in the next ten years.

Isn't there at least some upside if they don't?

housing prices dropping means that property taxes will go down. And that mortgage payments will also go down....right? right?

But I want it to collapse... Every home in my area is selling at 120% of what it was bought for in 2016

Yep, there have been growing warning signs for about 2 years, with more and more areas piling up inventories, longer and longer times to close a sale, and actual amount of closed sales lowering... and then all the Trump induced insanity just kicked in the weak foundations.

The silver lining will be that these predatory financial corps that are been buying up all the housing inventory so they can force everyone into being renters at exorbitant rates (like Blackrock and Morgan), will be stuck with declining values on their inventory, and will take a bath. Good, fuck them.

a lot of soybean farms will be going tits-up soon

Yep, you've got it.

This could get really ugly, really fast.

I cannot believe I am saying this, but uh... yeah, with this level of general government idiocy and chaos, hyperinflation may actually be a probable outcome.

The USD is tanking internationally, and ... welp, gotta keep making these international debt payments somehow, and the oldest trick in the book for that is just hyperinflation.

... And Trump keeps saying he can or will fire Jerome Powell ... and then the Federal Reserve is no longer independent, and basically all the economists just shrug and give up.

Whoo boy this is gonna suck.

LA refers to Louisiana here. Climate change likely one of the major factors.

... Not sure if you'r joking, but LA means Louisiana, the state.

Much of the coastal south... is just literally sinking/being overtaken by rising sea levels... and also the generations of utterly farsical mismanagement of all kinds of infrastructure and public services.

Part of the reason 2008 was so bad was because homes were, ballooned by rent-seeking and speculation, so overpriced that even as speculators defaulted on mortgages the properties entering the market we're still outside the budget of most real human buyers